Vintage card prices: Will 2023-2030 be like 2008-2015?
 

As we close on the end of the year, I am thinking about my collecting goals for the future. I have been collecting since the 1980s and am looking to continue to build my collection.

It’s been an interesting last 3 years in terms of vintage cards prices. I can’t remember a time like it. But I am of the mindset that the next 7 years will be like the era of 2008-2015. That timeframe was mostly a period of flat card prices. You could basically buy the same card for the same price during that time.

I think the next 7 years will be like that, flat card prices. Sure, some super high end/rare cards will set records. But generally, I think flat cards prices for everything else. I do not see a major downturn like some (doom and gloom) but more if a return to the norm.

Id like get the community’s thoughts on this topic. I am sure we all have thoughts :)

I think for some players the prices have risen to where they probably should have been the whole time. I'm thinking of the extra special guys like Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Jackie, etc.

I always thought they were cheap for who they were and just didn't have the money when I was younger to buy them. But I always thought it was pretty cool you could pay $500 to $1,000 and acquire most of the generally easy to find Ruth cards. Even the Bird and Montage E121 cards were super cheap for such a long time.

But then there are the lesser cards that have gone nuts lately and I don't see them sustaining themselves the same way. I think Koufax is overpriced, for example. His rookie was never really all that expensive. I bought a PSA 5 for $250 in the 2008 - 2015 time frame and recently sold it for $1,600.

Since I plan to buy alot more vintage over the next 7 years than I plan to sell, I would happily take a decent plateau of vintage prices. It seems like every time a card I want gets listed for sale, I look at the last 5 sales and each was an all-time high (unless there was an obvious centering/overgrade issue).

That said, I think it ultimately comes down to new entrants into the vintage card market, as well as the overall prosperity of the US and international market. It feels (perhaps incorrectly), that many vintage collectors look at cards as a hybrid hobby and alt investment. Admittedly, so do I. I enjoy the thought of adding a mid-grade 53 Mantle to my portfolio and holding it for my lifetime more than adding another 25 shares of VTI. But, I am one person and can only add about 5-10 cards off my wish list each year. The future really depends on how many others are out there with a similar mindset.

If the overall economy stays at or about its current level, I think the vintage market will continue to be pretty stable with an upward trajectory over time. So, I think the vintage market will continue to be strong until we see a major economic disruption (ie really hard financial times flooding the market with sellers and eliminating buyers) or a massive hobby-specific disruption (ie a new grading technology that objectively establishes that a large segment of the vintage collectables in circulation - including graded - are fake or altered). I don't think either of these events are probable in the near term.

My almost-certainly-wrong prediction:

Prices will stay similar or come down on everything except the very expensive stuff. Those with the means to play around with 6 and 7 figure card purchases will continue to try and outdo each other by paying increasingly absurd prices.

Checking my crystal ball. Damn, I can't see it clearly.

The baby boomer's are an abnormally high population percentage. These boomers are what collected and cherished cards from the 1950's thru early 1970's.

As this population group passes, a relatively high amount of these cards will hit the market as sold by their heirs. The supply will increase, but will the demand match the increase in supply to keep prices stable?

Maybe the demand will not be enough to match supply and prices will drop for post-war vintage. Maybe the population of card collectors has increased proportionately with the population increase in the country and overall demand will be able to absorb the cards that will come to market, and prices will do just fine. Maybe a lot of the bjillions of modern card collectors will transition into post-war vintage and prices will actually increase.

There really is a surprising amount of post-war vintage out there. It's the pre-war quality material that is most scarce. I tend to feel the pre-war quality cards stand the best chance to increase in value.

If you do collect post-war (and pre-war also) vintage, remember centering is huge with the demand for near perfect centering at an all time high. These are the cards you will want to own.

Downward trending: whatever I own.
Upward trending: whatever I sold.
Neutral: whatever I want but think is overpriced.

Beyond that, I haven't a clue. If I did, I would be trading, not telling.

I fully agree with the OP...it’s gonna be flat.....I see no catalyst in the near term for another major run up. The good stuff will still be good and sell strong and or go down the least, the less them sub-optimal will be at more normal levels for a good while. The one think that I believe has changed since 08-15 is many more people think of these cards as investments now as apposed to 15 years ago.

I do also think there will be a deluge of collections hitting the markets at the semi-same time over the next 10 years as boomers likely die off or cash out, but I'm not sure it'll really matter in the end when it comes to cards from the 50s to 70s.

There are already a ton of them out there. I would say you could search for any mainstream Topps card from the 50s to 70s and find dozens of examples for sale at any given time across all platforms.

So while never really all that rare and never really all that hard to come by, I would think most of the collections that will come to market will feature cards that are already out there for sale and aren't necessarily hurt by abundance.

I fully agree with this comment. I don’t know how that impacts things/relates to the OP, but it’s a fact and must impact somehow.

7 years is an eternity, right now. It will fly by, no question, but not sure how anyone can think they can predict the projection of an entire industry in this very fast paced society in which we live in. I will be this bold and say that over the next 7 years cards will sell.

Just for fun, I recently read a bitcoin future price prediction report, which I think applies to our little world as well:

The price will go up.

Unless it goes down.

Or it might stay the same.

Naturally, they spent a few paragraphs on each case, discussing the future events and factors that might lead to that outcome. I assume these prognosticators must be paid like lawyers - by the word.

Joking aside, as humans, particularly when it comes to future predictions, current events are a huge mental anchor. Our baseline is to start with today, and then tweak a little up or down depending on whether our views are optimistic or pessimistic. It also happens to be a bit safer when it comes to trying to make a call. Nobody is going to tell you that you're crazy, because that's what everyone else is predicting.

And for the most part, predictions here are pretty well in line with that approach. We're only human, after all.

Personally, I've given up on the fool's errand of attempting to predict future prices. If I want it badly enough and I can afford it, then I buy it, even if I'm forced to pay more than I really want to. And if I can't afford it, then I wait patiently for a day that may never come.

Well, yes and no. I think anyone with enough experience in the field can handicap certain classes of cards as being good candidates for future appreciation, and others as not so much, and can buy accordingly. The fun is in trying to predict what out of favor classes might be worth buying now, or what items are still below the radar but have a shot at future gains.

Yes, especially with hindsight. :)

Not to quibble too much here, but I suspect it makes a difference that you’re a lot more adventurous than the average collector when it comes to moving pretty freely between different eras, sports, and flavors (ie cards, memorabilia, pins, tickets, foreign stuff, etc.). With all of those options, there’s plenty of relatively underloved pieces to choose from in trying to guess what might catch fire in the coming years.

Maybe I’m just the boring collector who sticks to a single era, mostly collects a handful of specific players and well-known and well-loved issues, and doesn’t really venture outside of those parameters. So unless I’m going to make a big bet on junk era wax catching fire and tripling in price, there are a lot fewer variables that could drive my possible results in terms of stuff going nuts and taking off.

Whereas I consider "focus" to be a dirty word. Picked up a NASCAR collection last week:

1962 and 1972 Richard Petty postcards

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ize/img130.jpg

The 1972 is signed.

I’m no Economist, but holding all things constant, I’m hopeful the US economy continues to chug along creating wealth, unemployment remains relatively low, and the retiring baby boomer generation, new economy entrants, entrepreneurs and highly compensated employees pump money into the economy. Thus grow discretionary income for more charitable giving, as well as volume and price increasing collectibles purchase and enjoyment.

I mostly look at pre war and some early post war cards. Of those, I think the best ones will rise but not as much as they have. Also, not sure if any of the grading, trimmimg etc.. issues will ever impact prices? Probably not.
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Yeah, and that cuts both ways. My Festival of Bric-a-Brac (TM) portfolio has some bad bets in it too. I just look at those as tax losses to harvest in Q4 each year. But I keep making my bets because

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ers%20idol.gif

I love to pick and I'm a greedy SOB.

I agree. Prewar is blue chip. Collectors have fled to value over the last year or so, and us dinosaurs are reaping the (mostly psychological--most of us ain't selling) benefits now. How long it will go on and how sticky the prices will be? Who can say. Right now, though

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...abulous%20.gif