Vintage card prices: Will 2023-2030 be like 2008-2015?

[Smarti5051]

Since I plan to buy alot more vintage over the next 7 years than I plan to sell, I would happily take a decent plateau of vintage prices. It seems like every time a card I want gets listed for sale, I look at the last 5 sales and each was an all-time high (unless there was an obvious centering/overgrade issue).

That said, I think it ultimately comes down to new entrants into the vintage card market, as well as the overall prosperity of the US and international market. It feels (perhaps incorrectly), that many vintage collectors look at cards as a hybrid hobby and alt investment. Admittedly, so do I. I enjoy the thought of adding a mid-grade 53 Mantle to my portfolio and holding it for my lifetime more than adding another 25 shares of VTI. But, I am one person and can only add about 5-10 cards off my wish list each year. The future really depends on how many others are out there with a similar mindset.

If the overall economy stays at or about its current level, I think the vintage market will continue to be pretty stable with an upward trajectory over time. So, I think the vintage market will continue to be strong until we see a major economic disruption (ie really hard financial times flooding the market with sellers and eliminating buyers) or a massive hobby-specific disruption (ie a new grading technology that objectively establishes that a large segment of the vintage collectables in circulation - including graded - are fake or altered). I don't think either of these events are probable in the near term.