Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Adam, I myself am wondering whether the auction house has anything to do with the relatively/comparatively weak result. Of the 5 prior sales that range from $369k - $396k, two were REA and two Heritage, with the fifth being the oldest, on 5/23/21, in Goldin for $369k.

Personally, I have no issue with Ken or his AH and I have bought a number of stuff from his auction house when it was a smaller outfit. However, I don't think I have bought anything from Goldin since they were acquired by PSA, and, at this point, I dont even really follow their auctions. To me, Goldin, like PWCC, has become an almost purely modern venue and I dont feel like wading through pages of RPAs looking for a singular pre-war needle in the haystack. Plus, like PWCC, I am not a fan of the auction interface, which I find difficult to use and not intuitive. I am not a bidder on a 1955 Koufax PSA 9, regardless of whether its in Goldin or REA, but perhaps others did not notice/partake in the auction for similar reasons stated above.

It's an interesting concept. Just pondering a little bit myself, let's say there was a high grade mainline piece for a major HOFer that I was coveting, and had a war chest lying around to chase it. Along it comes in auction, and there's a chance to pick it up for 20% off the last sale.

I'm not convinced that I'd let a clunky interface or the need to do a little more homework to find it get in my way. If anything, I might be inclined to lean into those as a competitive advantage, especially if it prevents the competition from bidding as heavily, or even finding the auction.

And I think the market has long ago given us enough signals that for 99.999% of collectors, we're not about to let our moral code stand in the way of picking up high quality stuff, particularly at a good deal.

All of which is a long way of saying that I have a hard time believing those were the likely answer. I tend to be more of a believer that there was probably one more potential bidder out there who decided to not go nuts this time. He's feeling tapped out, maybe his dog just died, or he lost a bundle on some lame SPAC investment, had a mild heart attack, or his wife just filed for divorce and is suing for the collection and the house. Or maybe he just had a conflict that night with the Met Gala. For whatever reason, he dropped out of the bidding earlier, and therefore the price pooped out a few bids earlier than the last handful of auctions.

Whenever we talk about our moral code and its potential influence on certain auction houses, it brings to mind a joke from the economist joke book, which I've told here before, but will recount again, because it seems apropos in light of our sometimes flexible moral code. Apologies that it's a little salty, but the saltiness helps to convey the message.

An economist walks up to a woman and asks if she would sleep with him for $1 million.

She responds that she supposes that she would.

Whereupon the economist asks if she would sleep with him for $100.

To which she retorts, "What kind of a woman do you think I am?"

The economist wryly observes, "Madam, we have already established that. Now we are just negotiating on price."

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by raulus

It's an interesting concept. Just pondering a little bit myself, let's say there was a high grade mainline piece for a major HOFer that I was coveting, and had a war chest lying around to chase it. Along it comes in auction, and there's a chance to pick it up for 20% off the last sale.

I'm not convinced that I'd let a clunky interface or the need to do a little more homework to find it get in my way. If anything, I might be inclined to lean into those as a competitive advantage, especially if it prevents the competition from bidding as heavily, or even finding the auction.

And I think the market has long ago given us enough signals that for 99.999% of collectors, we're not about to let our moral code stand in the way of picking up high quality stuff, particularly at a good deal.

All of which is a long way of saying that I have a hard time believing those were the likely answer. I tend to be more of a believer that there was probably one more potential bidder out there who decided to not go nuts this time. He's feeling tapped out, maybe his dog just died, or he lost a bundle on some lame SPAC investment, had a mild heart attack, or his wife just filed for divorce and is suing for the collection and the house. Or maybe he just had a conflict that night with the Met Gala. For whatever reason, he dropped out of the bidding earlier, and therefore the price pooped out a few bids earlier than the last handful of auctions.

Whenever we talk about our moral code and its potential influence on certain auction houses, it brings to mind a joke from the economist joke book, which I've told here before, but will recount again, because it seems apropos in light of our sometimes flexible moral code. Apologies that it's a little salty, but the saltiness helps to convey the message.

An economist walks up to a woman and asks if she would sleep with him for $1 million.

She responds that she supposes that she would.

Whereupon the economist asks if she would sleep with him for $100.

To which she retorts, "What kind of a woman do you think I am?"

The economist wryly observes, "Madam, we have already established that. Now we are just negotiating on price."

I disagree, if you dont like or trust an auction house, and you would spend that kind of money on a Koufax rookie i think it’s very plausible that you would look elsewhere. It’s not like it’s that scarce a card.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by puckpaul

I disagree, if you dont like or trust an auction house, and you would spend that kind of money on a Koufax rookie i think it’s very plausible that you would look elsewhere. It’s not like it’s that scarce a card.

What if you could get it for 20% off?

Or 50% off?

Is there no discount at which you would decide you’re ready to buy?

I suspect most of the group has their price at which they would bite.

[Lorewalker]

Not sure we will ever know why this one sold for less but it might be nothing more than everyone who could afford to pay more than 288K had no interest in adding a 55 Koufax to their collection. Might be a case were a straight for sale would have maintained the previous price point. Still a good price overall just not great news to those who recently paid more but this is what happens when you have skin in the game. I rather have a 55 Koufax 9 at 460 than an 86 Jordan 10 at 700.

Whenever I reflect on our hobby and try to figure out what something is worth the overly obvious phrase, it is worth what someone is willing to pay for it, pops into my head.

One thing we do know is that there are far more buyers for a 55 Koufax PSA 5 than there are a 55 Koufax PSA 9.

[Exhibitman]

I've always maintained that for postwar mainstream cards, condition rarity is a risky bet, especially where the numbers are so large that only 0.01% of collectors are the market.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by raulus

What if you could get it for 20% off?

Or 50% off?

Is there no discount at which you would decide you’re ready to buy?

I suspect most of the group has their price at which they would bite.

Maybe…But i don’t scour pwcc for bargains, i just dont participate there. I have never trusted certain Auction houses mentioned, so, no, it’s not worth my time to monitor their auctions. All you need are a few participants to opt out and prices can disappoint.