The trend in Wagner cards

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Way too many instances in the hobby were scarcity plays no role in the eventual value of a card. It always comes down to a demand for that card. Maybe this new price point is just that--establishing a new demand for the M116s and other Wagner portrait cards.

The demand is obviously there. My point is the supply is scarce. I bet there are more graded 1952 Topps Mantles than all graded cards of Wagner combined. Wagner is a popular and desirable player- maybe bc he is a first 5, maybe bc of the t206, maybe bc he is one of the all time greats, and likely all 3. It’s tough to own a Wagner and tougher to own a Wagner portrait. Add that the sharp rise in value leads to Fomo - get one now or they will be out of reach- and bam, a value explosion. Will it continue? No clue. But I am not looking to sell mine bc I want them. But if I had a better use for/needed the money, I would sell given the sharp increase.

Peter, your blue Wagner is likely worth $70k+ based on the last sale. Do you want $70k+ or a blue Wagner? They both sound pretty nice.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The demand is obviously there. My point is the supply is scarce. I bet there are more graded 1952 Topps Mantles than all graded cards of Wagner combined. Wagner is a popular and desirable player- maybe bc he is a first 5, maybe bc of the t206, maybe bc he is one of the all time greats, and likely all 3. It’s tough to own a Wagner and tougher to own a Wagner portrait. Add that the sharp rise in value leads to Fomo - get one now or they will be out of reach- and bam, a value explosion. Will it continue? No clue. But I am not looking to sell mine bc I want them. But if I had a better use for/needed the money, I would sell given the sharp increase.

Peter, your blue Wagner is likely worth $70k+ based on the last sale. Do you want $70k+ or a blue Wagner? They both sound pretty nice.

Ryan when you put it that way, my initial reaction is I would rather have 70K+ in more Ruth cards, especially as I had the good fortune to also buy a pastel Wagner many years ago. Appreciate everyone's thoughts.

[gabrinus]

IMHO it's Trobba pumping the prices...Jerry

[DeanH3]

The price surge looks to be affecting other issues as well. Seems like Wagner E-cards are experiencing healthy increases as well. I'm curious as what a really scarce issue like Nadja, Croft's Cocoa or Croft's Candy would fetch these days.

[brunswickreeves]

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year*. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate. Please let me know of needed edits or additions.

By this count as of last edit, there are 3,576 total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 451 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 12.6% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 345 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 9.6% of the total POP. Of these, there are 126 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 55 from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC, equating to 3.5% of the total POP.

This Excel summarizes graded cards by right facing portrait in color (blue highlight), right facing in non-color (gold highlight), left facing (green highlight) and batting/throwing/other (no highlight), as well as by grand total # and %.

*For most up-to-date POP report, please visit respective grading websites, which supersedes this Excel summary.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 2,617 total graded Wagner cards (close to Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 16.7% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 189 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.2% of the total POP. Of these, there 108 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 37 from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Great list Brunswick, thanks for posting. Wagner also has cards in the E94 & E98 set.

[brunswickreeves]

Thanks! Added those into total, etc.

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

Do you have the Colgan”s square proofs accounted for in your totals? I think this subset if you will often gets overlooked when people look at the regular round Colgan’s cards.

[Exhibitman]

I'm tempted to sell some of my cards too, Peter, but when I factor in the cost of sale and the taxes that temptation fades away. Between 10%-20% of market to the auctioneer, 28% of the profit (and a sale of a highly appreciated asset would be nearly all profit) to the IRS if a capital gain or my marginal Federal tax rate if via a business, and my marginal tax rate to the state, a $50K profit becomes a $25K-$30K profit. Nice, but annoying. Hold until after I retire, and the picture changes. Hold until I die and my kid gets a stepped-up to FMV basis and she can sell it and pay nothing in taxes.

If I want to buy one again, the picture is even worse. I need a 50% drop in value to get back in at no extra cost. How often has that been the case over the last 40 years? Now, i guess I could invest the profit but making up a 50% hit like that is a very ambitious plan.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

The SGC pop on the T206 Wagner is 18.

[puckpaul]

It’s funny, never thought about it before much, but i dont have many Wagners (well, except for some important premiums or supplements) because he is not in the T3, T205, T207, (T206 except the ONE), the key early sets i have collected. I branched into E90-1, and only have a few key CJs, but didnt buy a Wagner yet as his cards exploded and i havent chased (yet). So collecting him is a little specialized and different compared to his contemporary greats (Cobb, Matty, Wajo, Lajoie, and many other HOFers from those eras).

[brianp-beme]

Fun Wagner list. Another set Wagner is in is the E91C American Caramel. Not a popular card for collectors since the facial artwork is actually that of Joe Tinker, but it should be included.

Brian

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

You are missing many of the M101-4/5 back variations. They won’t add much to the population total but they should be mentioned.

[Republicaninmass]

Cards have been around 100 years. Now all of a sudden there is a tremendous surge in demand. People just found out baseball cards exist, or new buyers are speculating user the greater fool theory. This doesn't count the 1% on the board of which money is basically no object.

Saw quite a few of my cards get silly prices in memory lane, only to be sold at half or less via goldin weeks/months later

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

You are missing many of the M101-4/5 back variations. They won’t add much to the population total but they should be mentioned.

Same thing happen, if I recall with his Jackson list. Good effort but...

[brunswickreeves]

REA’s 10-day extended summer auction started today, and this m116 Sporting Life Wagner portrait (blue background total POP of 65) is already over $15K from nearly 70 bids (not my card, nor bidding on it):
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=153632

Based on the last 1910 Authentic graded Tip Top Bread auctioning for $30K, and % increases for other portrait issues like this, are Wagner portrait’s baseline moving in the direction of 1952 Topps Mick? With 739+/- total graded Wagner portrait cards across all issues and 2,500+/- 52 Topps Micks, there certainly are significantly fewer Wagners than Micks.

[troutbum97]

That escalated quickly ....

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=153632

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

REA’s 10-day extended summer auction started today, and this m116 Sporting Life Wagner portrait (blue background total POP of 65) is already over $15K from nearly 70 bids (not my card, nor bidding on it):
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=153632

Based on the last 1910 Authentic graded Tip Top Bread auctioning for $30K, and % increases for other portrait issues like this, are Wagner portrait’s baseline moving in the direction of 1952 Topps Mick? With 739+/- total graded Wagner portrait cards across all issues and 2,500+/- 52 Topps Micks, there certainly are significantly fewer Wagners than Micks.

Hardly a typical 1.