The trend in Wagner cards

[brunswickreeves]

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year*. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate. Please let me know of needed edits or additions.

By this count as of last edit, there are 3,576 total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 451 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 12.6% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 345 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 9.6% of the total POP. Of these, there are 126 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 55 from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC, equating to 3.5% of the total POP.

This Excel summarizes graded cards by right facing portrait in color (blue highlight), right facing in non-color (gold highlight), left facing (green highlight) and batting/throwing/other (no highlight), as well as by grand total # and %.

*For most up-to-date POP report, please visit respective grading websites, which supersedes this Excel summary.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 2,617 total graded Wagner cards (close to Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 16.7% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 189 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.2% of the total POP. Of these, there 108 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 37 from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Great list Brunswick, thanks for posting. Wagner also has cards in the E94 & E98 set.

[brunswickreeves]

Thanks! Added those into total, etc.

[Brian]

Brunswick, did you create that list manually, or do you have a trick for integrating all the TPG data? I'd love to know.......

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Brian

Brunswick, did you create that list manually, or do you have a trick for integrating all the TPG data? I'd love to know.......

I did a similar Joe Jackson playing days card POP analysis, manually. There’s definitely a way to code it, I just don’t have the time to write the program .

[Brian]

That is what I was thinking. I know some guys who could probably do it pretty quickly, too, if they had time.

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

Do you have the Colgan”s square proofs accounted for in your totals? I think this subset if you will often gets overlooked when people look at the regular round Colgan’s cards.

[Exhibitman]

I'm tempted to sell some of my cards too, Peter, but when I factor in the cost of sale and the taxes that temptation fades away. Between 10%-20% of market to the auctioneer, 28% of the profit (and a sale of a highly appreciated asset would be nearly all profit) to the IRS if a capital gain or my marginal Federal tax rate if via a business, and my marginal tax rate to the state, a $50K profit becomes a $25K-$30K profit. Nice, but annoying. Hold until after I retire, and the picture changes. Hold until I die and my kid gets a stepped-up to FMV basis and she can sell it and pay nothing in taxes.

If I want to buy one again, the picture is even worse. I need a 50% drop in value to get back in at no extra cost. How often has that been the case over the last 40 years? Now, i guess I could invest the profit but making up a 50% hit like that is a very ambitious plan.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I'm tempted to sell some of my cards too, Peter, but when I factor in the cost of sale and the taxes that temptation fades away. Between 10%-20% of market to the auctioneer, 28% of the profit (and a sale of a highly appreciated asset would be nearly all profit) to the IRS if a capital gain or my marginal Federal tax rate if via a business, and my marginal tax rate to the state, a $50K profit becomes a $25K-$30K profit. Nice, but annoying. Hold until after I retire, and the picture changes. Hold until I die and my kid gets a stepped-up to FMV basis and she can sell it and pay nothing in taxes.

If I want to buy one again, the picture is even worse. I need a 50% drop in value to get back in at no extra cost. How often has that been the case over the last 40 years? Now, i guess I could invest the profit but making up a 50% hit like that is a very ambitious plan.

Taxes suck no question. But your reasoning leads to a Yogi-like result, does it not? I can't afford to sell that card, it's gone up too much in value.

[packs]

Not the Horner portrait but still one of my favorite images of Wags. I paid $1,000 for this once upon a time:

[scooter729]

Great spreadsheet!

It's missing the SGC pop on the E105 Mello-Mints - there are 13 batting pose and 1 throwing currently listed in their pop report.

[Touch'EmAll]

The Colgan's Chip Honus Wagner has the T206 image. And is relatively scarce in nice grade, PSA pop only about 20 in PSA 5 or higher, so you seem them offered less frequently than you might think. This Colgan's has often been referred to as a much less expensive alternative with the famous image. How has recent sales pricing been for this issue - big upswing or ?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Taxes suck no question. But your reasoning leads to a Yogi-like result, does it not? I can't afford to sell that card, it's gone up too much in value.

No doubt about it!

I think the challenge with the knock-on effects when you give up ~40% of the proceeds to taxes (not to mention the selling costs also taking a piece) is that if you’re going to sell for the cash, it’s because you really want to get out of a piece, with really no plans to realistically get back into it, barring a complete collapse in prices.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Taxes suck no question. But your reasoning leads to a Yogi-like result, does it not? I can't afford to sell that card, it's gone up too much in value.

That's pretty good. Taxes on profits are the sort of problem you want to have.

[Aaron Seefeldt]

I have 0 Wagner cards, sold them all before the “explosion”. BUT I do have these labels and to me they’re the most beautiful Wagner portraits in the hobby

[robw1959]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

I have 0 Wagner cards, sold them all before the “explosion”. BUT I do have these labels and to me they’re the most beautiful Wagner portraits in the hobby

Those cigar labels are so beautiful! I wonder how they got away with printing those when American Tobacco got sued to stop their T206 production?

[ahmanfan]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Taxes suck no question. But your reasoning leads to a Yogi-like result, does it not? I can't afford to sell that card, it's gone up too much in value.

Unless you have a very clear and compelling path for the funds, I’m not flipping a baseball card, losing 40%, and putting it in another baseball card. Just not worth it.


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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ahmanfan

Unless you have a very clear and compelling path for the funds, I’m not flipping a baseball card, losing 40%, and putting it in another baseball card. Just not worth it.


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Losing 40 percent? Flipping? Not sure where you're coming up with that. I've owned mine for many years and bought it at a tiny fraction of what it would realize even after fees and taxes. Not that I am doing it...

[ahmanfan]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Losing 40 percent? Flipping? Not sure where you're coming up with that. I've owned mine for many years and bought it at a tiny fraction of what it would realize even after fees and taxes. Not that I am doing it...

Well, since your cost basis is so low, so you sell a Wagner for 50 you’re only going to net 30 to buy a 30 K Ruth, or mantle, etc. That’s the trade I would be unwilling to make personally. Your purchasing power reduces if you make a move..


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[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I'm tempted to sell some of my cards too, Peter, but when I factor in the cost of sale and the taxes that temptation fades away. Between 10%-20% of market to the auctioneer, 28% of the profit (and a sale of a highly appreciated asset would be nearly all profit) to the IRS if a capital gain or my marginal Federal tax rate if via a business, and my marginal tax rate to the state, a $50K profit becomes a $25K-$30K profit. Nice, but annoying. Hold until after I retire, and the picture changes. Hold until I die and my kid gets a stepped-up to FMV basis and she can sell it and pay nothing in taxes.

If I want to buy one again, the picture is even worse. I need a 50% drop in value to get back in at no extra cost. How often has that been the case over the last 40 years? Now, i guess I could invest the profit but making up a 50% hit like that is a very ambitious plan.

Can you or others explain the FMV basis? Or direct me to a website?

I though the act of inheriting someone was tax free, but if you sell it down the road, you would have to pay taxes on that sale?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Can you or others explain the FMV basis? Or direct me to a website?

I though the act of inheriting someone was tax free, but if you sell it down the road, you would have to pay taxes on that sale?

when inheritance changes hands...the recipient is assessed the value of the inheritance on that transfer date as the value so if they sell that day they will pay no taxes.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

when inheritance changes hands...the recipient is assessed the value of the inheritance on that transfer date as the value so if they sell that day they will pay no taxes.

What about 6 months from that date?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

What about 6 months from that date?

if sale price is greater than value on date of transfer...that is the amount you pay taxes on.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

when inheritance changes hands...the recipient is assessed the value of the inheritance on that transfer date as the value so if they sell that day they will pay no taxes.

Maybe said another way, the person (or persons) who inherit the assets will step up their basis to fair market value on the date they inherit. So if you bought it for $100, and then die when it's worth $1,000,000, your heirs will have a basis of $1,000,000.

So if they sell right away, in theory there should be no gain or loss, because the sales price should be equal to the fair market value ($1,000,000 in this case), which is their basis.

If they wait to sell, then any appreciation after that date would be taxed when they choose to sell. I suppose the recipient could also choose to pass it down again when they die, in which case it gets stepped up again, at least under current law.

A few years ago, there was a proposal to start to tax gains that hadn't been taxed in the last 90 years. But that proposal hasn't gone anywhere so far, so in theory the inheritance tax benefit process could continue for as long as your heirs continue to not need the money.

[ullmandds]

Much clearer!!!

[Prof]

Originally Posted by raulus

Maybe said another way, the person (or persons) who inherit the assets will step up their basis to fair market value on the date they inherit. So if you bought it for $100, and then die when it's worth $1,000,000, your heirs will have a basis of $1,000,000.

So if they sell right away, in theory there should be no gain or loss, because the sales price should be equal to the fair market value ($1,000,000 in this case), which is their basis.

If they wait to sell, then any appreciation after that date would be taxed when they choose to sell. I suppose the recipient could also choose to pass it down again when they die, in which case it gets stepped up again, at least under current law.

A few years ago, there was a proposal to start to tax gains that hadn't been taxed in the last 90 years. But that proposal hasn't gone anywhere so far, so in theory the inheritance tax benefit process could continue for as long as your heirs continue to not need the money.

Hypothetically, do you know what the process would be like here?

- A person dies, and an old photo album gets distributed to a relative. Basically, "Hey, we're cleaning out the house. You want this?"
- Nobody searches through it for 10 years.
- Finally, they look through it, and find a T206 Doyle error card glued to a page.
- They consign and sell the card for 1 million.

Is there like a retroactive appraisal assessment for when the person received the album 10 years ago? Then, you subtract that 10-year-old value from the 1 million, and that's what you pay the gains on?

Or are you just paying on the 1 million since it was never appraised at the time?

-

And what about if the item was truly unique to the hobby with no past market value?

If there was a retroactive appraisal, would they just pull an educated estimate out of their butts that was smaller than the present day value from selling it?


(Sorry if this is derailing the thread a bit.)



Back on topic, Wagners are cool. I wish I had one.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

The SGC pop on the T206 Wagner is 18.

[puckpaul]

It’s funny, never thought about it before much, but i dont have many Wagners (well, except for some important premiums or supplements) because he is not in the T3, T205, T207, (T206 except the ONE), the key early sets i have collected. I branched into E90-1, and only have a few key CJs, but didnt buy a Wagner yet as his cards exploded and i havent chased (yet). So collecting him is a little specialized and different compared to his contemporary greats (Cobb, Matty, Wajo, Lajoie, and many other HOFers from those eras).

[brianp-beme]

Fun Wagner list. Another set Wagner is in is the E91C American Caramel. Not a popular card for collectors since the facial artwork is actually that of Joe Tinker, but it should be included.

Brian

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

I created the attached Wagner card total POP (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Excel analysis earlier this year. May have changed since or perhaps I missed some issues, but should be directionally accurate.

By this count there are 3,003* total graded Wagner cards (exceeds Mick’s 1952 Topps total graded POP). Of total graded Wagner cards, there are 436 inverse facing portrait cards, which is 14.5% of the total POP. Of graded Wagner cards, there are 212 Carl Horner original facing orientation portrait cards, which is 7.0% of the total POP. Of these, there are 131 in color, with 64 from 1910 Tip Top Bread, 60 (SGC didn’t produce a POP report result for some reason) from T206, and 7 from 1910 W-UNC.

Additions:
1910 E98: 267 (129 PSA, 110 SGC, 28 Beckett)
1911 E94: 96 (41 PSA, 55 SGC)

You are missing many of the M101-4/5 back variations. They won’t add much to the population total but they should be mentioned.

[Republicaninmass]

Cards have been around 100 years. Now all of a sudden there is a tremendous surge in demand. People just found out baseball cards exist, or new buyers are speculating user the greater fool theory. This doesn't count the 1% on the board of which money is basically no object.

Saw quite a few of my cards get silly prices in memory lane, only to be sold at half or less via goldin weeks/months later

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Cards have been around 100 years. Now all of a sudden there is a tremendous surge in demand. People just found out baseball cards exist, or new buyers are speculating user the greater fool theory. This doesn't count the 1% on the board of which money is basically no object.

Saw quite a few of my cards get silly prices in memory lane, only to be sold at half or less via goldin weeks/months later

Congrats on getting out at the top!

Certainly astronomical silly prices give us a lot more to think about when all of that sweet bread could buy a lot of other exciting things, but only if we're willing to part with some of our cardboard, potentially forever.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Saw quite a few of my cards get silly prices in memory lane, only to be sold at half or less via goldin weeks/months later

How many of these were Wagners? I am not sure all cards/players are equal and, thus, may not all follow the same trends. I am not saying Wagners won’t be worth half in weeks/months, but I really doubt they will be.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

How many of these were Wagners? I am not sure all cards/players are equal and, thus, may not all follow the same trends. I am not saying Wagners won’t be worth half in weeks/months, but I really doubt they will be.

No Wags, but Much lower pops, wasn't that one reason the last one sold so high?


I just can't fathom why all of a sudden sportcards around for 100 years are going ballistic. If wagners dropped 50% I'm sure plenty of people would pick up the pieces as there is demand.


When you look at a piece of cardboard vs. A porsche or a Tuscan villa, whatever floats your boat, it puts life in perspective. I don't know everyone's end game, but at some point either we or our family sell. I guess if one has it all, why not. Buy what makes you happy.

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[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

You are missing many of the M101-4/5 back variations. They won’t add much to the population total but they should be mentioned.

Same thing happen, if I recall with his Jackson list. Good effort but...

[brunswickreeves]

REA’s 10-day extended summer auction started today, and this m116 Sporting Life Wagner portrait (blue background total POP of 65) is already over $15K from nearly 70 bids (not my card, nor bidding on it):
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=153632

Based on the last 1910 Authentic graded Tip Top Bread auctioning for $30K, and % increases for other portrait issues like this, are Wagner portrait’s baseline moving in the direction of 1952 Topps Mick? With 739+/- total graded Wagner portrait cards across all issues and 2,500+/- 52 Topps Micks, there certainly are significantly fewer Wagners than Micks.

[troutbum97]

That escalated quickly ....

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=153632

[toothcutter]

Do you see whats going on over at REA today? Blue portrait Wagner 1 going bonkers!! first day and already at 15500 without the vig!

[toothcutter]

sorry guys, im new and a little excited. Just read above 2 comments.

[Aaron Seefeldt]

Hey Brunswick, just a heads up, you have the e286 Ju Ju Drums Wagner listed as a portrait on your checklist. It's actually a batting follow through action pose. I used to own one, sadly, it rests in someone else's collection now.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

Hey Brunswick, just a heads up, you have the e286 Ju Ju Drums Wagner listed as a portrait on your checklist. It's actually a batting follow through action pose. I used to own one, sadly, it rests in someone else's collection now.

Not a portrait… total graded pop is 3-5, two may be crossovers from SGC to PSA

[brunswickreeves]

Thanks, Excel and analysis updated.

[Brian]

Great job, Brunswick!

Can you break down the two types of M116s? Did you conflate them for a reason (Beckett)? It would be nice to see how the blue and pastel compare on the Excel. Just thinking.....

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

REA’s 10-day extended summer auction started today, and this m116 Sporting Life Wagner portrait (blue background total POP of 65) is already over $15K from nearly 70 bids (not my card, nor bidding on it):
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=153632

Based on the last 1910 Authentic graded Tip Top Bread auctioning for $30K, and % increases for other portrait issues like this, are Wagner portrait’s baseline moving in the direction of 1952 Topps Mick? With 739+/- total graded Wagner portrait cards across all issues and 2,500+/- 52 Topps Micks, there certainly are significantly fewer Wagners than Micks.

Hardly a typical 1.