Players not yet eligible for the HOF

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

What about Kenley Jansen? He’s only 50 or so saves away from Lee Smith and still 35 years old. He could conceivably get to 500 saves. He’s got 420 now.

This is a really good one. My initial thought was "lol no", but looking deeper it's possible. I wouldn't call him likely but he may hit some big milestones and his 158 ERA+ is in level with HOF relief work. Hurt by a lack of big seasons and WAR.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is a really good one. My initial thought was "lol no", but looking deeper it's possible. I wouldn't call him likely but he may hit some big milestones and his 158 ERA+ is in level with HOF relief work. Hurt by a lack of big seasons and WAR.

From what I have seen, WAR doesn't seem to be a great stat for relievers because of the minimal number of innings they generally pitch.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by jayshum

From what I have seen, WAR doesn't seem to be a great stat for relievers because of the minimal number of innings they generally pitch.

I’m not a fan of it either, but the voter base is these days.

[Centauri]

I admit to being biased, but Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are both very strong candidates, and I expect they'll make it over the line. They need to produce in their 30's about half of what they did in their 20's, which is very reasonable IMO.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Centauri

I admit to being biased, but Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are both very strong candidates, and I expect they'll make it over the line. They need to produce in their 30's about half of what they did in their 20's, which is very reasonable IMO.

+1

[BearBailey]

Machado is more likely than Harper especially if you are looking at WAR.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by G1911

I’m not a fan of it either, but the voter base is these days.

WAR for the top 10 save leaders. Other than Rivera and Eckersley, nothing that impressive compared to starters and position players. Relievers just don't pitch enough any more to do well in WAR.

Mariano Rivera's career WAR is 56.3
Trevor Hoffman 28.0
Lee Smith 28.9
Fracisco Rodriguez 24.2
John Franco 23.4
Billy Wagner 27.8
Kenley Jansen 20.8
Craig Kimbrel 23.1
Dennis Eckersley 62.1 (also a starter so a lot higher because of that)
Joe Nathan 26.7

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by jayshum

WAR for the top 10 save leaders. Other than Rivera and Eckersley, nothing that impressive compared to starters and position players. Relievers just don't pitch enough any more to do well in WAR.

Mariano Rivera's career WAR is 56.3
Trevor Hoffman 28.0
Lee Smith 28.9
Fracisco Rodriguez 24.2
John Franco 23.4
Billy Wagner 27.8
Kenley Jansen 20.8
Craig Kimbrel 23.1
Dennis Eckersley 62.1 (also a starter so a lot higher because of that)
Joe Nathan 26.7

Just my thought, but I think WAR works well for hitters, less well for pitchers and hardly at all for relievers.

[mainemule]

Love this thread and I need to look at my speculative list when I'm next on my computer, since I'm a HOF auto collector.

Two others trending really nicely, Shohei and Aaron Judge. I have a Judge auto but not Ohtani.

One other Sox player that I unfortunately think will come up short is Jon Lester.

And no way CC should get in ahead of Schilling. Both should be in!

[nat]

Originally Posted by jayshum

WAR for the top 10 save leaders. Other than Rivera and Eckersley, nothing that impressive compared to starters and position players. Relievers just don't pitch enough any more to do well in WAR.

Mariano Rivera's career WAR is 56.3
Trevor Hoffman 28.0
Lee Smith 28.9
Fracisco Rodriguez 24.2
John Franco 23.4
Billy Wagner 27.8
Kenley Jansen 20.8
Craig Kimbrel 23.1
Dennis Eckersley 62.1 (also a starter so a lot higher because of that)
Joe Nathan 26.7

And this actually overstates how valuable these guys were. WAR includes a leverage adjustment - basically, relief pitchers get extra credit when they appear in tight games. This doesn't make any sense, a run scored in the first inning counts just as much as a run scored in the ninth, but relievers get extra credit for preventing runs in the ninth inning that starters don't get for preventing runs in the same game in the first inning.

Because they pitch so few innings, relief pitchers just aren't that valuable. Their WAR scores are lower than those of starters, and if WAR had been better formulated (i.e., if it hadn't included a leverage adjustment) they would be even lower.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by nat

And this actually overstates how valuable these guys were. WAR includes a leverage adjustment - basically, relief pitchers get extra credit when they appear in tight games. This doesn't make any sense, a run scored in the first inning counts just as much as a run scored in the ninth, but relievers get extra credit for preventing runs in the ninth inning that starters don't get for preventing runs in the same game in the first inning.

Because they pitch so few innings, relief pitchers just aren't that valuable. Their WAR scores are lower than those of starters, and if WAR had been better formulated (i.e., if it hadn't included a leverage adjustment) they would be even lower.

The leverage adjustment is not something I have ever heard of before, but even with it, closers just don't do well with WAR.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nat

And this actually overstates how valuable these guys were. WAR includes a leverage adjustment - basically, relief pitchers get extra credit when they appear in tight games. This doesn't make any sense, a run scored in the first inning counts just as much as a run scored in the ninth, but relievers get extra credit for preventing runs in the ninth inning that starters don't get for preventing runs in the same game in the first inning.

Because they pitch so few innings, relief pitchers just aren't that valuable. Their WAR scores are lower than those of starters, and if WAR had been better formulated (i.e., if it hadn't included a leverage adjustment) they would be even lower.

I am not sure how you would analyze it statistically, but I've always thought relief pitchers' stats are favorably skewed because they don't get charged for letting inherited runners score.