Players not yet eligible for the HOF

jayshum · #1 09-07-2023, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I�m not a fan of it either, but the voter base is these days.

WAR for the top 10 save leaders. Other than Rivera and Eckersley, nothing that impressive compared to starters and position players. Relievers just don't pitch enough any more to do well in WAR.

Mariano Rivera's career WAR is 56.3
Trevor Hoffman 28.0
Lee Smith 28.9
Fracisco Rodriguez 24.2
John Franco 23.4
Billy Wagner 27.8
Kenley Jansen 20.8
Craig Kimbrel 23.1
Dennis Eckersley 62.1 (also a starter so a lot higher because of that)
Joe Nathan 26.7

bbcard1 · #2 09-07-2023, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayshum

WAR for the top 10 save leaders. Other than Rivera and Eckersley, nothing that impressive compared to starters and position players. Relievers just don't pitch enough any more to do well in WAR.

Mariano Rivera's career WAR is 56.3
Trevor Hoffman 28.0
Lee Smith 28.9
Fracisco Rodriguez 24.2
John Franco 23.4
Billy Wagner 27.8
Kenley Jansen 20.8
Craig Kimbrel 23.1
Dennis Eckersley 62.1 (also a starter so a lot higher because of that)
Joe Nathan 26.7

Just my thought, but I think WAR works well for hitters, less well for pitchers and hardly at all for relievers.

mainemule · #3 09-09-2023, 03:23 PM

Love this thread and I need to look at my speculative list when I'm next on my computer, since I'm a HOF auto collector.

Two others trending really nicely, Shohei and Aaron Judge. I have a Judge auto but not Ohtani.

One other Sox player that I unfortunately think will come up short is Jon Lester.

And no way CC should get in ahead of Schilling. Both should be in!

nat · #4 09-09-2023, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jayshum

WAR for the top 10 save leaders. Other than Rivera and Eckersley, nothing that impressive compared to starters and position players. Relievers just don't pitch enough any more to do well in WAR.

Mariano Rivera's career WAR is 56.3
Trevor Hoffman 28.0
Lee Smith 28.9
Fracisco Rodriguez 24.2
John Franco 23.4
Billy Wagner 27.8
Kenley Jansen 20.8
Craig Kimbrel 23.1
Dennis Eckersley 62.1 (also a starter so a lot higher because of that)
Joe Nathan 26.7

And this actually overstates how valuable these guys were. WAR includes a leverage adjustment - basically, relief pitchers get extra credit when they appear in tight games. This doesn't make any sense, a run scored in the first inning counts just as much as a run scored in the ninth, but relievers get extra credit for preventing runs in the ninth inning that starters don't get for preventing runs in the same game in the first inning.

Because they pitch so few innings, relief pitchers just aren't that valuable. Their WAR scores are lower than those of starters, and if WAR had been better formulated (i.e., if it hadn't included a leverage adjustment) they would be even lower.

jayshum · #5 09-09-2023, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nat

And this actually overstates how valuable these guys were. WAR includes a leverage adjustment - basically, relief pitchers get extra credit when they appear in tight games. This doesn't make any sense, a run scored in the first inning counts just as much as a run scored in the ninth, but relievers get extra credit for preventing runs in the ninth inning that starters don't get for preventing runs in the same game in the first inning.

Because they pitch so few innings, relief pitchers just aren't that valuable. Their WAR scores are lower than those of starters, and if WAR had been better formulated (i.e., if it hadn't included a leverage adjustment) they would be even lower.

The leverage adjustment is not something I have ever heard of before, but even with it, closers just don't do well with WAR.

Peter_Spaeth · #6 09-09-2023, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nat

And this actually overstates how valuable these guys were. WAR includes a leverage adjustment - basically, relief pitchers get extra credit when they appear in tight games. This doesn't make any sense, a run scored in the first inning counts just as much as a run scored in the ninth, but relievers get extra credit for preventing runs in the ninth inning that starters don't get for preventing runs in the same game in the first inning.

Because they pitch so few innings, relief pitchers just aren't that valuable. Their WAR scores are lower than those of starters, and if WAR had been better formulated (i.e., if it hadn't included a leverage adjustment) they would be even lower.

I am not sure how you would analyze it statistically, but I've always thought relief pitchers' stats are favorably skewed because they don't get charged for letting inherited runners score.

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