The future of Shohei Ohtani

[todeen]

He can't play OF until his arm heals, just like Bryce Harper. So now he must decide if he will strictly DH, or get surgery and try to rush back like Harper. Bad timing either way for teams looking at signing him.

While on a new team lets say he opts for surgery; he could be like Acuna, injured and not playing when the team wins a WS.

As for salary, his future earnings have definitely decreased. If they were at $500m, a team knows they need to invest in an injured player. Would Mariners do that? I don't think so. So now his West Coast options are Dodgers, Padres, Giants. I agree Padres and Giants are risky if Ohtani has a win now mentality. Padres are about to be torn down. So then that leaves Dodgers. Would Dodgers offer $400m? I don't think so.

Part of the reason for Dodgers recent success is because they have acted like the Cardinals, and they don't sign long term contracts with players who will become beached whales with 4 yrs remaining. I would say Dodgers offer 5 years, $30m, $150m guaranteed, with incentives for more money that could bring yearly salaries up to $50m if he reaches 40 HR, 100 RBI, AS, MVP, GG, if he pitches again, etc etc. If Ohtani opts for surgery, Dodgers know they have invested $30m for one year of nothing.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[Peter_Spaeth]

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

Doesn't seem to be a lot of unusual selling pressure in his higher grade rookie cards so far. Then again, people are still spending $150 on Wander Franco cards over the past 12 hours.

[Shoeless Moe]

He definitely will sign for less now. Not even a question. If he goes from being a 2 way player, and significant draw because of that, to now an injury risk, granted a very good position player, or worse just a DH, no way he gets what he would have gotten.

Unless one of 2 last place New York teams do what they usually do, overspend and lose.

But he has said he wants to win (toss out both NY) so only East Coast team I see him going to is Baltimore (maybe Boston), but more likely he'll land on the West Coast. 3-4-5 teams equal to or better than NY teams so why head East. Doesn't even make sense to consider, both NY teams 2-3 years (minimum) away from being competitive (WS bound)again, in regards to the divisions they are in too.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

He definitely will sign for less now. Not even a question. If he goes from being a 2 way player, and significant draw because of that, to now an injury risk, just a very good outfielder, or even worse just a DH, no way he gets what he would have gotten.

Unless one of 2 last place New York teams do what they usually do, overspend and lose.

But he has said he wants to win (toss out both NY) so only East Coast team I see him going to is Baltimore, but more likely he'll land on the West Coast. 4-5 teams equal to or better than NY teams so why head East. Doesn't even make sense to consider, both NY teams 2-3 years (minimum) away from being competitive (WS bound)again, in regards to the divisions they are in too.

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by packs

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

+1 on that

[packs]

The Orioles haven't appeared in the postseason in 7 years, but yeah, that's the most logical AL East destination for a guy looking to win.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by packs

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

Are we talking about the New York Yankees? They are arguably further off from competing than the Mets are, given that they don't like to spend money anymore and that every team in their division is clearly better. They will need a massive shift (and a bunch of new players) to have a prayer of competing in 2024.

Going back to Ohtani, I very much doubt he will go anywhere except the west coast. I also think, even with the injury, he will set the record for most total dollars in a contract.

[packs]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Are we talking about the New York Yankees? They are arguably further off from competing than the Mets are, given that they don't like to spend money anymore and that every team in their division is clearly better. They will need a massive shift (and a bunch of new players) to have a prayer of competing in 2024.

Going back to Ohtani, I very much doubt he will go anywhere except the west coast. I also think, even with the injury, he will set the record for most total dollars in a contract.

Last year, the Yankees played in the ALCS. Their roster this year isn't all that different. The difference are injuries and lapses in production from most of the same players who took the team to the ALCS last year.

The Mets lost in the Wild Card series last year, totally revamped their roster, then traded their biggest signings away.

So, why are the Mets better?

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by packs

How can you say both NY teams are far off from competing when the offseason hasn't even happened yet? The Yankees were playing in the ALCS just last year. And when you're talking about the Yankees you aren't talking about a team who has to see if prospects pan out. This offseason has a large free agent pool of quality players. This is just something people who don't like the Yankees say about them.

Yes Yankees were in the ALCS last year, but did you forget how awful they looked. They didn't belong on the same field as the Astros. And they've regressed this year, so if you think they are on the cusp of the World Series, with teams like Baltimore, Houston, Texas, Seattle, Tampa, Toronto, and Minnesota all ahead of them enjoy your delusions.


Had to re-check. They lost to the Astros 4 games to 0. Struck out 17 times in Game 1, 13 times in Game 2. Batted .162 for the Series.

They are 23rd in runs scored this year, behind the Rockies and Nationals. 29th in team batting average, ahead of only the A's.

Yep they are on the cusp alright.

[packs]

Of all the teams you mentioned ahead of the Yankees only the Astros have won a World Series in the last 30 years.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He has been huge of course in the card world. What percentage on average do his rookie cards drop now?

There's a Blowout poll about Ohtani card price changes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1566180

Spoiler alert, most people so far think 20-40%, with a bunch of people 0-20%.

[packs]

The last time his market tanked I managed to pick this up for $250. I'd do it again:

[bk400]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

There's a Blowout poll about Ohtani card price changes.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1566180

Spoiler alert, most people so far think 20-40%, with a bunch of people 0-20%.

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by bk400

Interesting poll -- Should be fun to see how the market speaks over time. If he never throws another pitch, he's still a guy who won (assuming he wins this year) two MVPs as a two-way player, which as we all know hasn't been done in three generations. Juan Gonzales, Dale Murphy and Roger Maris are the 3 two-time MVPs not in the Hall. Granted, they have pretty strong records. But they didn't also pitch.

If Ohtani's downside as a player from here is 5 years as a poor man's Ichiro -- plus 20-35 home runs per year -- he's probably still a first ballot hall of famer.

Sports Colectors Daily doesn't think the injury should have much impact on Ohtani's card prices. And so far it hasn't.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...80005-83287939

[mrreality68]

I do not think it will impact his cards
1. He has already made a splash as a 2 way player for many years now.
2. Set many records and compared to Babe Ruth often
3 already has 1 MVP and a strong case for a 2nd.
4. May not pitch next hit but can still hit
5. Projected to pitch in 2025
6. Very popular player
7. If he gets on a winning team will only get more visibility

[Peter_Spaeth]

If going forward he is only a DH, I think his cards will drop relative to the market. And even more if for some insane reason he stays with the Angels.