Anyone Else Feeling Marooned on Vintage Collector Island??

[conor912]

To stick with your boat analogy, prices saw a titanic shift in the last few years. If they come down, it won’t be for a while til sellers realize the market wont support said prices. 40-70 year old white guys aren’t typically known for their brain elasticity or quickly adopting new prices in the downward direction,, so it’ll take some time to “right the ship”. Either that or things never go down, and everything is at its new justified FMV.

I for one have pivoted to Japanese cards and and having a blast. There’s always another niche. Even the niches have niches!

[Rich Falvo]

I’m feeling a little marooned also. Not just because of prices, but because I had narrowed my collecting focus and material just hasn’t been available. Time to refocus.

[Exhibitman]

Good one, Connor. I guess we all need a few ketamine trips to reset the ol' brains.

Raulus, spot on. I saw a grail card come and go tonight because I just could not justify the outlay. My last (inadequate) bid was painful.

[Svabinsky78]

Even the oddball vintage which the mainstream of the hobby would not sniff at years ago....and even the lower tier HOFers....has gone off the rails.....

Case in point, I was keeping an eye on a 1921 Exhibits Burleigh Grimes that was listed on the recent REA auction......it ended up selling for $2400 (plus the 20% buyer's fee + taxes and shipping....when all said and done, about $3000). I know that it is a pretty scarce card...and it is his rookie, but $3000....I passed. Just crazy....

You can still find reasonable prices at smaller regional shows (not the national)....if you run into the right dealer.....

[Hankphenom]

I'd really love to get a breakdown of where all this money is coming from. Auction honchos could tell me, if they wanted, but I'm not sure I've ever asked. It's not us here on Net54, that's for sure, unless we're cashing in something we bought years ago when things were more affordable to buy something today. I'm guessing some pure investor and investor groups have noticed the dependable 50-year track record and ROI of this asset class and come in with guns blazing. And how about these tech billionaires and wealthy boomer lawyers, doctors, and other professionals who basically have the wherewithal to pull the trigger on anything they see in auction catalogs as often as they feel like it. And they can do it with the reassurance of the above mentioned track record. There is so much money sloshing around out there now, so many fortunes that would have been unimaginable in my youth when there were a few old-line fortunes known by name and that was about it. Venture capital? What the heck is that? Don't get me wrong, I have no complaints. I'm very happy with my little house in my beautiful little town and my fabulous old Highlander and Martin D-35, etc., and I have some cool stuff grabbed in the old days in niches that not many others cared about, but I can easily understand how frustrating it must be for ordinary schmucks who just love old cards to now be faced with choices like replacing the beater second car or moving forward with their collection. Frankly, the financial profile of the average Net54 collector must be in the top 99% of the country to even be able to play in this sandbox at all. For that group, who has gotten used to having pretty much whatever they set their sights on, this must be a very tough time to be in the "hobby."

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I'd really love to get a breakdown of where all this money is coming from. Auction honchos could tell me, if they wanted, but I'm not sure I've ever asked. It's not us here on Net54, that's for sure, unless we're cashing in something we bought years ago when things were more affordable to buy something today. I'm guessing some pure investor and investor groups have noticed the dependable 50-year track record and ROI of this asset class and come in with guns blazing. And how about these tech billionaires and wealthy boomer lawyers, doctors, and other professionals who basically have the wherewithal to pull the trigger on anything they see in auction catalogs as often as they feel like it. And they can do it with the reassurance of the above mentioned track record. There is so much money sloshing around out there now, so many fortunes that would have been unimaginable in my youth when there were a few old-line fortunes known by name and that was about it. Venture capital? What the heck is that? Don't get me wrong, I have no complaints. I'm very happy with my little house in my beautiful little town and my fabulous old Highlander and Martin D-35, etc., and I have some cool stuff grabbed in the old days in niches that not many others cared about, but I can easily understand how frustrating it must be for ordinary schmucks who just love old cards to now be faced with choices like replacing the beater second car or moving forward with their collection. Frankly, the financial profile of the average Net54 collector must be in the top 99% of the country to even be able to play in this sandbox at all. For that group, who has gotten used to having pretty much whatever they set their sights on, this must be a very tough time to be in the "hobby."

I'm skeptical that there's a lot of hedge funds, venture capital, and alternative investment pools with millions or billions dedicated to buying cardboard running around out there and buying up a significant number of vintage pieces. Maaaaaaybe a few here and there, but not enough to move the market on their own. Obviously the fractional ownership promoters are losing their shirts and liquidating their pieces, but even for them when they were in acquisition phase prior to their ultimate fall, it's not like they were buying more than a handful of high-end pieces here and there.

For those of us with the cash to swim in the semi-deep waters, I'm guessing that no small number of us here fit the profile of successful professionals or business owners. I'm inclined to suspect that some of our peers who left the hobby in our youth have come back to it during the pandemic, and are willing to spend a fair amount to get back into the game. I suspect that this is the biggest source of support for all of the cash running around and buying up 5 and 6 figure pieces.

I would guess that you're right that some part of the cash is recycled from collectors selling pieces and then rolling it over into new pieces. While some gets recycled, there are certainly some collectors who have decided that they're ready to sell and move on to other adventures. Or death or divorce resulting in liquidation of some collections, with the proceeds not coming back.

In the end, every little bit helps to support these prices.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by raulus

I'm skeptical that there's a lot of hedge funds, venture capital, and alternative investment pools with millions or billions dedicated to buying cardboard running around out there and buying up a significant number of vintage pieces. Maaaaaaybe a few here and there, but not enough to move the market on their own. Obviously the fractional ownership promoters are losing their shirts and liquidating their pieces, but even for them when they were in acquisition phase prior to their ultimate fall, it's not like they were buying more than a handful of high-end pieces here and there. For those of us with the cash to swim in the semi-deep waters, I'm guessing that no small number of us here fit the profile of successful professionals or business owners. I'm inclined to suspect that some of our peers who left the hobby in our youth have come back to it during the pandemic, and are willing to spend a fair amount to get back into the game. I suspect that this is the biggest source of support for all of the cash running around and buying up 5 and 6 figure pieces. I would guess that you're right that some part of the cash is recycled from collectors selling pieces and then rolling it over into new pieces. While some gets recycled, there are certainly some collectors who have decided that they're ready to sell and move on to other adventures. Or death or divorce resulting in liquidation of some collections, with the proceeds not coming back. In the end, every little bit helps to support these prices.

Yes, it is no doubt a mix of investors and collectors of different goals and resources that is driving the current trends. I never included large Wall Street types in my question, by the way, and only mentioned venture capitalists as an example of relatively new and lucrative professions providing the disposable income to enable those with the collector gene to satisfy their cravings. But surely there are some individuals and investor groups out there who have heard and seen verified the age-old advice of speculative wisdom succeed generation after generation: "buy the best cards in the best condition of the best players you can find," and have and are investing heavily in this market accordingly. Put this mix together, and, as the OP laments, the days of the guy or gal making a nice six-figure salary, or even multiples of that, who used to be able to indulge in the hobby with relish, actively and successfully, is pressed harder and harder now to finish their sets, upgrade their sets, expand their type cards, etc., as they could just a few years ago. That was the point of the original and succeeding posts, and it is quite amazing to ponder a situation where many of those populating this board, sporting wonderful financial profiles at the very top percentiles in the country, are being frustrated at virtually every turn now on their attempts to keep up. Things have changed, that's for sure.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by conor912

To stick with your boat analogy, prices saw a titanic shift in the last few years. If they come down, it won’t be for a while til sellers realize the market wont support said prices. 40-70 year old white guys aren’t typically known for their brain elasticity or quickly adopting new prices in the downward direction,, so it’ll take some time to “right the ship”. Either that or things never go down, and everything is at its new justified FMV.

I for one have pivoted to Japanese cards and and having a blast. There’s always another niche. Even the niches have niches!

Thanks for not including 70-80 year old white guys.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Thanks for not including 70-80 year old white guys.

I can attest that Frank's brain is as elastic as anyone's.

[jingram058]

From the monthly pick up thread, where anything I pick up is ignored, there are most definitely a number of upper 99% and some 1%ers who make up the country club of net54 and all the other high-value card forums. Just look at the monthly pick ups, and the congratulatory pats on the back from the other country clubbers, the shiny beautiful people who can easily afford Wagner, Mantle, Ruth and Cobb and all the others. Pocket change. Nothing more than trinkets and geegaws when you have that kind of change burning a hole in your pocket.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by jingram058

From the monthly pick up thread, where anything I pick up is ignored, there are most definitely a number of upper 99% and some 1%ers who make up the country club of net54 and all the other high-value card forums. Just look at the monthly pick ups, and the congratulatory pats on the back from the other country clubbers, the shiny beautiful people who can easily afford Wagner, Mantle, Ruth and Cobb and all the others. Pocket change. Nothing more than trinkets and geegaws when you have that kind of change burning a hole in your pocket.

Maybe, but there's a whole bunch of middle/working class members here who scrimp, save, and sacrifice to add to our collections. I for one am happy to see members pick up cards for their collection that I could never afford. A lot of them are hobby friends, why wouldn't I be happy for them?

[Seven]

My collecting has essentially ground to a halt. I've tried to shift my focus to more underappreciated players in the hobby. Players like Duke Snider, or Zack Wheat are two that come to mind.

I have to face the facts that what I want to collect, just simply isn't obtainable for me at the moment. I still enjoy talking cardboard, going to shows, and the occasional lower level pick up. My income cannot keep up with the meteoric rise, of the vintage I want to collect, and I cannot live in a house made out of my cards.

I still enjoy the hobby, I enjoy looking at my cards, and responding/making posts on here, but it's hard as a twenty-something.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Maybe, but there's a whole bunch of middle/working class members here who scrimp, save, and sacrifice to add to our collections. I for one am happy to see members pick up cards for their collection that I could never afford. A lot of them are hobby friends, why wouldn't I be happy for them?

Well, can you share some of that love to some of us who post up what, to us less fortunate, is something meaningful, so as not to be totally ignored? Kind of takes the wind out of the hobby when the only thing that gets noticed or a pat on the back is the latest Wagner, Mantle, Ruth, or Cobb.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Well, can you share some of that love to some of us who post up what, to us less fortunate, is something meaningful, so as not to be totally ignored? Kind of takes the wind out of the hobby when the only thing that gets noticed or a pat on the back is the latest Wagner, Mantle, Ruth, or Cobb.

James - maybe I interpreted it differently, but it sure seemed like you got plenty of congratulations with your 62 Topps complete set.

But perhaps that was an exception to the general rule of your pickups being overlooked?

[JollyElm]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Well, can you share some of that love to some of us who post up what, to us less fortunate, is something meaningful, so as not to be totally ignored? Kind of takes the wind out of the hobby when the only thing that gets noticed or a pat on the back is the latest Wagner, Mantle, Ruth, or Cobb.

Tell me about it!! I do cartwheels every time I post another Gregg Jefferies rookie card that I landed in the 'new pick-ups' thread, yet there's not a single back pat to be found anywhere. But if any 'Mick' card from any year gets posted, that member gets a Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade level of excitement thrown his way.