Anyone Else Feeling Marooned on Vintage Collector Island??
 

(Forgive me for sounding like a sharer from a Card Collectors Anonymous meeting.)


This is a perfect metaphor for my current collecting 'journey'...

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I can't remember the last time I saw something on eBay that was a combination of both great and affordable. There's nothing. Everything I look at is even more stupidly priced than before, despite people (who knows what fantasy world they live in) claiming that prices across the vintage board have dropped. I even used to love picking up things with qualifiers at nice prices. Wow, dem days are over!!

I find myself beached aground at the lowest of low tides, without even a chance of a rising current sweeping in to lift my collecting ship once again. So depressing.


Anybody else??

Great way to put it Darren love it

And yes eBay does that to you.

Many of my wishlist cards are on there and have been for years. yes I said years and the prices keep going up even though they never sell.

They are way to overpriced or someone would have bought them by now.

It gets a little tedious
 

Waiting for crazy prices to come down a bit, while watching them continue to shoot to the moon.

Luckily, there are plenty of other places to redirect your efforts, most of which are almost as satisfying.

I’ve been mostly focused on picking up nice pieces of my childhood heroes from the 1980s-2000s, which can still be had for a relative bargain. And every once in a while, a rare vintage piece that I can’t live without will come along and I’ll spend all the money I saved by passing on everything else.

Time to channel your inner Miley Cyrus and focus on the climb. Even if it seems like the pace is glacial sometimes.

Most ebay fixed prices are not real, just ignore them. There are still a fair number of ebay auctions, and of course tons of other auctions.

oddball may be calling you
 

I have branched out into odder versions of collecting and can still find a few things to buy at a reasonable price...... but it seems even the unusual and off beat items have gone up too so it is getting kind of rough to find a quality piece at anything close to reasonable on price. Looking at prices from even a year ago a lot of things get priced at double or triple and you cannot really negotiate. Cant blame the sellers if they can get it.... Id like to know however why a recent auction price for an item sets the floor at which it can be sold.... shouldnt it be more like the maximum rather than a minimum?

These are my last two bigger purchases. Neither came from eBay. First was from a fellow board member who reached out to me, and the other was an antique store find. The Topps Now cards I buy are on subscription. So while I like them, I'm more of a memorabilia guy. Before these, my big purchase in May was from ebay, a Tucker Barnhart hat he was issued for Wade Miley's no-hitter. That was a lucky find, and the last good deal I would say I found. I posted it on a Reds thread, and the guy who owned the Barnhart jersey reached out to me if I would sell it to him, disappointed he missed it.

I often feel that photos have become over priced on eBay compared to what I was paying pre-COVID.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...6cbb64c591.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...957d6bd36a.jpg

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I've made some pretty great ebay pickups recently, of course I collect stupid sh*t that few others care about, so that helps.

Doug

It happens; at this point, if I can make one pickup a year for my signed 1953 Topps project, I'm happy. In the meantime, I inevitably find side projects to keep me busy.

Great way to put it. I feel the same way, dead in the water. I have decided to re-group and put together a 1975 Hostess set and see if I can wait it out.

So I ran into the same feeling (probably 1 year ago) and ventured out into the FB Groups and I gotta say all of my transactions (both Buy & Sell) have been flawless.

I can give a positive recommendation for both

https://www.facebook.com/groups/t206cards

and

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2235724183379176


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Me too, Doug, as we've discussed. My stuff is the Festival of Bric-a-Brac.

Darren, you're not marooned, you just need to change ponds. I don't see a shortage of stuff with the bajillions of auctions nowadays. A lot of the more modestly-priced items you crave have migrated from eBay to some of the AH's online catalog offerings since they sell cards singly starting at ten bucks a pop. I know I shifted my selling from eBay to REA's Encore auctions when eBay started raping me on sellers' fees after a few double listings landed me in "Below Standard" purgatory until next May. While I'm in eBay's clink, what I list on eBay is stuff I am trying to get rid of. It is good for that, at least.

Four years ago, I was pretty much a 50’s through 70’s baseball guy.

Three years ago, I really started to get into pre-war baseball.

Two years ago, I didn’t want anything to do with non-sports cards.

A year ago, I thought baseball pinbacks, postcards and pennants were cool and all that, but I had no interest.

Now, I can’t stop buying this stuff. It’s a sickness, I tell ya! Maybe try to vary your collection. Expand into other areas of the hobby where you'll still get your collecting "fix" but where prices may be low. That's what I did above and I have a way cooler collection now.

Sounds like great recommendations! Since I'm newly back to the hobby, I'm interested in learning about various buying options, would you be able to clarify what the AH online catalog is that you referred to? I checked out REA Auctions as well, great stuff, but the 20% buyers fee seems a bit high, is that standard with these sorts of auctions elsewhere?

Thanks!

yes, 20% is standard. a lot of buyers on this site routinely state to work the buyers fee into your projected budget. but, if it's a one of a kind piece you must have..... Otherwise the extra 20% will destroy your budget.

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Don't forget to work in sales tax, if applicable, too.

I keep waiting for reality to sink in and affect the pricing of cards, memorabilia and the like. Ha! Wishful thinking. So with that in mind:

Thank heavens for what I already have, because I can trade. I ran out of the duplicates a while ago. Now, I have to part with something I like to get something else I want.

Buy low grade. But that's hard, because many others are now competing for them. If something low grade and reasonably priced gets posted to the B/S/T now, you'd better act fast or be lucky or both.

Scrapbooks. For a while as everything shot up into the stratosphere, scrapbooks stayed reasonable, $15 to $20 or so. But then the sellers saw what cards and everything else was going for, and went crazy with the prices of scrapbooks. They don't sell, if you look at completed items, but these sellers keep hoping some sap comes along. But every now and then, something slips through the cracks. Reference my score of a couple of weeks ago; a big find for $20.

I may be wrong, but I attribute the phenomenon OP describes (as far as I've experienced it) more to sellers' obstinacy than to an across-the-board rise in prices.

IMO there are still deals to be found, but they just aren't coming from eBay or the big AHs.

I guess I am in the minority here, in that I am not well-heeled. My Navy retirement and what I make working out here in "the world" allows me to get by. I don't have the spare money to buy thousand-dollar and up cards or attend conventions. Am I envious of you folks that can do these things? Sure. But as I state in my post above, trades, low grade and scrapbooks is how I participate in the hobby these days.

Happy to be selling into strength.

It's only stuff, but can translate into 1s and 0s that are accepted anywhere. My worry would have been if I passed away or needed to sell, the market wouldn't have cooperated. It's one less worry for myself and my family with the bulk of it sold.

I think reality is already priced in when it comes to vintage blue chip items. The reality is that career-issued Ruth cards and the like are no longer the purview of budget-conscious collectors. The prices on them are not going to revert to the prices of 10 years ago or more. I expect that they will beat inflation over the next 10-20 years even after the high returns of the last 3-4 years. The holders of these items have better access to information and sales channels and lots of wealthy buyers, so they don't need to cater to budget-conscious collectors. Also, with all of the data and opportunities out there, anyone knowledgeable isn't going to fire sale anything good. You either have to find it in the wild, get very, very lucky with a sale that falls through the cracks at an auction house or a mis-priced item at a show, or correctly anticipate the next area of growth, get in there now, and then use the appreciated items to trade into cards and other items.

I sold a number of blue chip cards several years ago for what I felt was a very high price at the time; today, they would be worth anywhere from 5x-25x what I got for them and I wish I had them back.

I personally think there are still a lot of good deals for collectors out there. I have purchased a number of rougher pre war Hall of fames recently for an affordable price

For example a few months ago I paid $80 for a raw e90 Eddie collins

I agree with Adam's comments that you're in the wrong pond. Ebay dried up for me sometime around the end of 2021. I recall actively searching for most of 2022 with very little to show for it. Though there were still the occasional auctions, 90+% of what's left is BINs at unreasonably high prices with sellers who won't negotiate. I know, I've tried.

Like many of you, I've seen the same card for years just sitting there, with a seller that makes sure the card is always 50% above market whatever that may be. I haven't looked at Ebay in 2023 at all. I'm sure that I've missed some reasonable auctions, but I decided that it's just not worth my time.

Adam, I think you made a wise move to Encore auctions, I shifted almost all of my buying to the AHs (as well as net54 BST).

EDIT: Edit to add that if you're talking about prices overall, well I'll have to agree with you on that. I've accepted the new reality and punted on a number of collecting goals, consigning cards that I liked but didn't love to further fund the addiction (thanks Lee Behrens).

Remember this sports card & memorabilia hobby that so many of us love is very much about acquiring these things with money. Other hobbies (like sports, gaming, gardening, fishing, etc,...) are more about skill & technique. Sure, there are costs associated, but not like there is in this hobby. This hobby is supposed to be a way to reduce stress from your day job. The problem is the hobby becomes as stressful, if not more than your day job. :(

Agree. People forget that with the exception of the Cobbs/Aarons/Mantles/etc this is all an extremely illiquid market. One sale here and there becomes the anchor data point for the next. Prices won't go down without forced sellers, and I am not sure there are too many out there.

Even those of us with cash to burn are feeling a lot poorer these days, as our cash doesn’t go very far. Even if you can afford it, you have to ask yourself whether it’s wise to spend 5 or 6 figures on it. All that cash could buy lots of other exciting stuff!

And even when you decide to parlay serious cash into cardboard generally, you keep asking yourself if this specific piece in front of you at the moment is really what you want to buy, or whether you should wait for something even higher on your wish list to come along.

Auction houses are reaping insane profits with the rise in card values. If one of the majors, say Heritage, dropped their BP to 15%, I am certain their sales volume would more than make up for the lost income.

Or index funds or the equivalent.

Well said. I agree with this 100%

To stick with your boat analogy, prices saw a titanic shift in the last few years. If they come down, it won’t be for a while til sellers realize the market wont support said prices. 40-70 year old white guys aren’t typically known for their brain elasticity or quickly adopting new prices in the downward direction,, so it’ll take some time to “right the ship”. Either that or things never go down, and everything is at its new justified FMV.

I for one have pivoted to Japanese cards and and having a blast. There’s always another niche. Even the niches have niches!

I’m feeling a little marooned also. Not just because of prices, but because I had narrowed my collecting focus and material just hasn’t been available. Time to refocus.

Good one, Connor. I guess we all need a few ketamine trips to reset the ol' brains.

Raulus, spot on. I saw a grail card come and go tonight because I just could not justify the outlay. My last (inadequate) bid was painful.

Even the oddball vintage which the mainstream of the hobby would not sniff at years ago....and even the lower tier HOFers....has gone off the rails.....

Case in point, I was keeping an eye on a 1921 Exhibits Burleigh Grimes that was listed on the recent REA auction......it ended up selling for $2400 (plus the 20% buyer's fee + taxes and shipping....when all said and done, about $3000). I know that it is a pretty scarce card...and it is his rookie, but $3000....I passed. Just crazy....

You can still find reasonable prices at smaller regional shows (not the national)....if you run into the right dealer.....

I'd really love to get a breakdown of where all this money is coming from. Auction honchos could tell me, if they wanted, but I'm not sure I've ever asked. It's not us here on Net54, that's for sure, unless we're cashing in something we bought years ago when things were more affordable to buy something today. I'm guessing some pure investor and investor groups have noticed the dependable 50-year track record and ROI of this asset class and come in with guns blazing. And how about these tech billionaires and wealthy boomer lawyers, doctors, and other professionals who basically have the wherewithal to pull the trigger on anything they see in auction catalogs as often as they feel like it. And they can do it with the reassurance of the above mentioned track record. There is so much money sloshing around out there now, so many fortunes that would have been unimaginable in my youth when there were a few old-line fortunes known by name and that was about it. Venture capital? What the heck is that? Don't get me wrong, I have no complaints. I'm very happy with my little house in my beautiful little town and my fabulous old Highlander and Martin D-35, etc., and I have some cool stuff grabbed in the old days in niches that not many others cared about, but I can easily understand how frustrating it must be for ordinary schmucks who just love old cards to now be faced with choices like replacing the beater second car or moving forward with their collection. Frankly, the financial profile of the average Net54 collector must be in the top 99% of the country to even be able to play in this sandbox at all. For that group, who has gotten used to having pretty much whatever they set their sights on, this must be a very tough time to be in the "hobby."

I love the REA stuff. I just hate the 20% buyers fee and 10% tax, LOL. Whatcha gonna do though?:)

If there was someone who was on the autograph card craze early, it was you! Whewwwwww:eek::D

Thanks for not including 70-80 year old white guys.

I can attest that Frank's brain is as elastic as anyone's. :)

From the monthly pick up thread, where anything I pick up is ignored, there are most definitely a number of upper 99% and some 1%ers who make up the country club of net54 and all the other high-value card forums. Just look at the monthly pick ups, and the congratulatory pats on the back from the other country clubbers, the shiny beautiful people who can easily afford Wagner, Mantle, Ruth and Cobb and all the others. Pocket change. Nothing more than trinkets and geegaws when you have that kind of change burning a hole in your pocket.

Maybe, but there's a whole bunch of middle/working class members here who scrimp, save, and sacrifice to add to our collections. I for one am happy to see members pick up cards for their collection that I could never afford. A lot of them are hobby friends, why wouldn't I be happy for them?

I'm skeptical that there's a lot of hedge funds, venture capital, and alternative investment pools with millions or billions dedicated to buying cardboard running around out there and buying up a significant number of vintage pieces. Maaaaaaybe a few here and there, but not enough to move the market on their own. Obviously the fractional ownership promoters are losing their shirts and liquidating their pieces, but even for them when they were in acquisition phase prior to their ultimate fall, it's not like they were buying more than a handful of high-end pieces here and there.

For those of us with the cash to swim in the semi-deep waters, I'm guessing that no small number of us here fit the profile of successful professionals or business owners. I'm inclined to suspect that some of our peers who left the hobby in our youth have come back to it during the pandemic, and are willing to spend a fair amount to get back into the game. I suspect that this is the biggest source of support for all of the cash running around and buying up 5 and 6 figure pieces.

I would guess that you're right that some part of the cash is recycled from collectors selling pieces and then rolling it over into new pieces. While some gets recycled, there are certainly some collectors who have decided that they're ready to sell and move on to other adventures. Or death or divorce resulting in liquidation of some collections, with the proceeds not coming back.

In the end, every little bit helps to support these prices.

My collecting has essentially ground to a halt. I've tried to shift my focus to more underappreciated players in the hobby. Players like Duke Snider, or Zack Wheat are two that come to mind.

I have to face the facts that what I want to collect, just simply isn't obtainable for me at the moment. I still enjoy talking cardboard, going to shows, and the occasional lower level pick up. My income cannot keep up with the meteoric rise, of the vintage I want to collect, and I cannot live in a house made out of my cards.

I still enjoy the hobby, I enjoy looking at my cards, and responding/making posts on here, but it's hard as a twenty-something.

Thank you, thank you, I've been on the wrong side plenty as well!

Well, can you share some of that love to some of us who post up what, to us less fortunate, is something meaningful, so as not to be totally ignored? Kind of takes the wind out of the hobby when the only thing that gets noticed or a pat on the back is the latest Wagner, Mantle, Ruth, or Cobb.

James - maybe I interpreted it differently, but it sure seemed like you got plenty of congratulations with your 62 Topps complete set.

But perhaps that was an exception to the general rule of your pickups being overlooked?

Less high-powered or elitist crowd on the post-war side of the board. :)

+1 on that!

Tell me about it!! I do cartwheels every time I post another Gregg Jefferies rookie card that I landed in the 'new pick-ups' thread, yet there's not a single back pat to be found anywhere. But if any 'Mick' card from any year gets posted, that member gets a Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade level of excitement thrown his way. :)

Collect for the fun it brings you, not the accolades from investors. Or, Invest for the returns it will bring you, not the accolades from collectors.

If one is collecting or investing for approval from other people, one might want to consider a change.

Yes, it is no doubt a mix of investors and collectors of different goals and resources that is driving the current trends. I never included large Wall Street types in my question, by the way, and only mentioned venture capitalists as an example of relatively new and lucrative professions providing the disposable income to enable those with the collector gene to satisfy their cravings. But surely there are some individuals and investor groups out there who have heard and seen verified the age-old advice of speculative wisdom succeed generation after generation: "buy the best cards in the best condition of the best players you can find," and have and are investing heavily in this market accordingly. Put this mix together, and, as the OP laments, the days of the guy or gal making a nice six-figure salary, or even multiples of that, who used to be able to indulge in the hobby with relish, actively and successfully, is pressed harder and harder now to finish their sets, upgrade their sets, expand their type cards, etc., as they could just a few years ago. That was the point of the original and succeeding posts, and it is quite amazing to ponder a situation where many of those populating this board, sporting wonderful financial profiles at the very top percentiles in the country, are being frustrated at virtually every turn now on their attempts to keep up. Things have changed, that's for sure.

I do collect for the fun it brings. I'm simply saying "the good old boy" club, the same people over and over, practically fall all over themselves to pat on the back the latest "pick up", with, as Jolly says, a virtual Macy's parade. For "picking up" the latest 5 or 6 figure card. While those who collect for the fun of it get 100% ignored over and over. If that is what card collecting is, then I very truly might want to consider a change.