Real curious to see National reports

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Any feedback on this National that proclaims the market is steady is no different than Disney telling me their newest reboot is a massive hit because of a strong opening weekend and ignoring that the second drops 80%. We are not there...at all.

Uh...OK, so you're saying the market for everything, including modern, is steady now but poised for a big drop in 12-24 months? Where are we not yet...at all, the big drop? And this National will be a strong one all around, then, including all the young flippers looking to buy as in the recent past?

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Uh...OK, so you're saying the market for everything, including modern, is steady now but poised for a big drop in 12-24 months? Where are we not yet...at all, the big drop? And this National will be a strong one all around, then, including all the young flippers looking to buy as in the recent past?

That’s not what I said at all.

I said that current prices are not an indicator that we are close to the end. I also don’t think that people will be dumping, nor would I think the lack of that shows much in either direction.

The “investors” are holding if they have any clue and will for a while. Anyone, unless they are needy from repayment from over borrowing, are going to sit. The vast majority of the new blood has little experience in the hobby and will basement hoard for awhile just like the prior junk wax boom. People know a mass dump of product will bring down the value more. If they needed cash infusion, they have already moved some and tried to recoup some.

If the market floods prices will drop rapidly, items will slowly come in but the actuality of what will move prices is slowing demand. The hype train is still pushing hard and the industry is going to do everything to keep that going. I expect strong sales in all honesty as the newer collectors have only the experience of huge prices and profit. The idea that this is the temporary drop that the youtubers are pushing is easily believable. This drop is looking like a great time to buy if you think that a big return is coming.

I think this could be a more successful National than last year and expect you may have a hard time getting good prices if you try to sell to dealers as quietly they likely see the risk too high to stockpile. That said, the collectors and consumers are a different animal. They will be spending.

I’ll wait until next year before I think demand will start to wane. If the big bounce back doesn’t come, that’s when the faith in buying low slows. It also should reflect in vintage as well as the flip crowd has been moving to the post war, and big five since last fall and keeping those values steady while they wait for the modern return.

Hey, it’s my opinion. You don’t have to agree…I am the only one who needs to.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

That’s not what I said at all. I said that current prices are not an indicator that we are close to the end. I also don’t think that people will be dumping, nor would I think the lack of that shows much in either direction. The “investors” are holding if they have any clue and will for a while. Anyone, unless they are needy from repayment from over borrowing, are going to sit. The vast majority of the new blood has little experience in the hobby and will basement hoard for awhile just like the prior junk wax boom. People know a mass dump of product will bring down the value more. If they needed cash infusion, they have already moved some and tried to recoup some. If the market floods prices will drop rapidly, items will slowly come in but the actuality of what will move prices is slowing demand. The hype train is still pushing hard and the industry is going to do everything to keep that going. I expect strong sales in all honesty as the newer collectors have only the experience of huge prices and profit. The idea that this is the temporary drop that the youtubers are pushing is easily believable. This drop is looking like a great time to buy if you think that a big return is coming.
I think this could be a more successful National than last year and expect you may have a hard time getting good prices if you try to sell to dealers as quietly they likely see the risk too high to stockpile. That said, the collectors and consumers are a different animal. They will be spending. I’ll wait until next year before I think demand will start to wane. If the big bounce back doesn’t come, that’s when the faith in buying low slows. It also should reflect in vintage as well as the flip crowd has been moving to the post war, and big five since last fall and keeping those values steady while they wait for the modern return. Hey, it’s my opinion. You don’t have to agree…I am the only one who needs to.

I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, Justin, and I have never felt a need to agree with anybody I don't agree with. I just don't see much difference, if any, between what you have said at great length and what I said in summary.

[Snapolit1]

I agree with what was said above …. I don’t see the young hustler crowd moving into prewar. They are not into the history of the sport, but will still gravitate to the Elly de La Cruz, whoever is the hot card at the moment. They want flash and splash. They are not going all in on Eddie Plank or Walter Johnson. They will keep playing the modern game assuming it roars back.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I'm not trying to pick a fight with you, Justin, and I have never felt a need to agree with anybody I don't agree with. I just don't see much difference, if any, between what you have said at great length and what I said in summary.

No fight Hank and my apologies if it sounded that way. I was just discussing my personal thoughts on it.

[taul166]

Remember how "hot" Collectable (fractional ownership) was before and at the time of last year's National?

[Exhibitman]

Modern is volatile AF, just the nature of the beast. Always has been (Gregg Jeffries RCs, anyone?). The guys who focus there must enjoy grabbing a tiger by the tail. As was said, they don't have the experience of the past boom and bust cycles, so they just have to learn what happens as it happens. Us old farts are so jaded that we sometimes forget that this is new stuff to the newbs. We can warn all we like, and we can be right, but the kids won't listen to us any more than our own kids listen to us.

When it comes to modern card collectors and newbs, I just try to enjoy the schadenfreude moments as they come. They always do. The death spiral is inevitable, so I just watch the flippers flailing on the way down, then I buy what I want when it bottoms out. That's how I got most of my modern cards. Plucking yesterday's hot insert cards out of a dollar box, very satisfying.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Modern is volatile AF, just the nature of the beast. Always has been (Gregg Jeffries RCs, anyone?). The guys who focus there must enjoy grabbing a tiger by the tail. As was said, they don't have the experience of the past boom and bust cycles, so they just have to learn what happens as it happens. Us old farts are so jaded that we sometimes forget that this is new stuff to the newbs. We can warn all we like, and we can be right, but the kids won't listen to us any more than our own kids listen to us.

When it comes to modern card collectors and newbs, I just try to enjoy the schadenfreude moments as they come. They always do. The death spiral is inevitable, so I just watch the flippers flailing on the way down, then I buy what I want when it bottoms out. That's how I got most of my modern cards. Plucking yesterday's hot insert cards out of a dollar box, very satisfying.

Two years ago a Philly show, my son really wanted a red wave Jonathan Taylor numbered to X. According to my son, it was a “great deal” at $850. I told him I would buy him a Walter Payton rookie for $850 and he said no, bc when Jonathan Taylor wins MVP his card will be worth double. I asked what would you do then, and he said I will sell the Taylor and buy a Walter Payton rookie! After a big fight, I acquiesced and he bought the card. Taylor did not win MVP, he had a bad season next year, and the card is likely worth nothing. Walter Payton’s rookie is at least worth 70% of what it was (in like a 6). At least my son acknowledges this now, but he still wants the hot player of the day, not the dead all time great

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by JustinD

No fight Hank and my apologies if it sounded that way. I was just discussing my personal thoughts on it.

No worries, Justin, and I do appreciate your very thoughtful analyses.