There goes the Judge

[packs]

Originally Posted by G1911

Because it seems unlikely he will do it again, is 31 and routinely out of the lineup and he is getting $360,000,000. People can absolutely fault the Yankees for signing a guy who does not project to age well (big men rarely do) to a titanic contract. You can do a lot with $360,000,000. I get that the Yankees chose to do the PR move and pay Judge's price after he broke the hallowed Yankee record, but there is very real and obvious downside look here.

I'm not sure it's that unlikely. He did have a OPS+ of 195 before his toe injury. He doesn't have spinal stenosis or some other degenerative issue. He doesn't have the hip problem A-Rod did. He doesn't have the wrist problem other power hitters have had. He hurt his toe this time. It's not like that's a typical big man injury. Sometimes things just happen.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

I'm not sure it's that unlikely. He did have a OPS+ of 195 before his toe injury. He doesn't have spinal stenosis or some other degenerative issue. He doesn't have the hip problem A-Rod did. He doesn't have the wrist problem other power hitters have had. He hurt his toe this time. It's not like that's a typical big man injury. Sometimes things just happen.

Sometimes things just happen. That Judge will break the home run record again is not a thing likely to happen, though, under any rational analysis as everyone should know. The downside of this contract is obvious.

[packs]

Originally Posted by G1911

Sometimes things just happen. That Judge will break the home run record again is not a thing likely to happen, though, under any rational analysis as everyone should know. The downside of this contract is obvious.

I was talking about his ability to produce, not hit 62 or more home runs again. As I said, his OPS+ at time of injury was 195. You don't have to hit 62 home runs every season to be worth a big contract. He's the only one to do that, so why would that be the criteria?

He played 49 games this year and is still currently third in the AL in home runs.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

I was talking about his ability to produce, not hit 62 or more home runs again. As I said, his OPS+ at time of injury was 195. You don't have to hit 62 home runs every season to be worth a big contract. He's the only one to do that, so why would that be the criteria?

He played 49 games this year and is still currently third in the AL in home runs.

It's the criteria because it is the one you chose to use with the words you wrote. We'll quote that back again too:

Originally Posted by packs

I just feel like the criticisms are out of whack. Judge hit 62 homers and his OPS+ was 212. He was twice as good as the average player in the league.

Even if he put up those numbers again once during the lifetime of his contract, who else in the league is capable of doing that at all?

It still sometimes amazes me that so many posters do not seem to understand a forum thread records what was said. Your directly stated justification for why you cannot understand criticism of the contract is Judge's 62 dingers and 212 OPS+ before signing the contract. Your second paragraph is arguing that even if only does it once more, it's a good deal.

[packs]

Originally Posted by G1911

It's the criteria because it is the one you chose to use with the words you wrote. We'll quote that back again too:



It still sometimes amazes me that so many posters do not seem to understand a forum thread records what was said. Your directly stated justification for why you cannot understand criticism of the contract is Judge's 62 dingers and 212 OPS+ before signing the contract. Your second paragraph is arguing that even if only does it once more, it's a good deal.

Again, I was talking about production. And yeah, if he leads the league in homers, RBI's, on base, slugging, OPS and OPS+ again, the deal's worth it. It doesn't matter if the numbers are exactly the same, it's the production.

I guess I should have clarified but I didn't realize things could get so pedantic.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Again, I was talking about production. I mentioned his OPS+ of 212. That's what I meant by repeat, not 62 home runs. And yeah, if he leads the league in homers, RBI's, on base, slugging, OPS and OPS+ again, the deal's worth it. It doesn't matter if the numbers are exactly the same, it's the production.

I guess I should have clarified but I didn't realize things could get so pedantic.

Then state your argument and reasons correctly. People can only respond to what people actually say, not a version thought up later when the former statements become inconvenient. If we want to use your OPS+ measure and ignore your HR statements (as it is pedantry to look at what is actually written) instead, it is also very unlikely that Judge will be posting such lofty OPS+'s in full seasons. Very unlikely. Maybe it will happen, but expecting the absolute best possible outcomes and ignoring everything else usually is exactly what makes for a very bad contract.

Good for Judge, he got his payday and leveraged the record into one that forced the Yankees to pay up big time for the politics of it. The downsides of the contract from a team perspective should be immediately obvious, whether one thinks it good or bad in the end.

[packs]

What team perspective are you talking about though? A team has to keep its fans happy, right? How do you think Yankee fans would have reacted to the team not signing Judge after the season he had?

I don't see the stretch you do. He was having another monster season this year and he finished 4th in MVP voting in 2021 before winning in 2022.

This isn't a Chris Davis situation where so much is unknown.