Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[steve B]

I get if you don't think the sales of the expensive stuff affects the related or identical cheap stuff.

But I'm completely convinced it's a factor in prices.

Consider a few sets.
T206 - easily the most common set of its era, maybe the most common prewar set. When I started, commons that were vg ish, were 1.50. First tier HOF $10. Cobb was more. Wagner was I think around 10K
Other sets from the same era? Despite being overall more difficult, often much ore difficult, the "easy" ones like E90-1 Sold for about the same.
Even later when T206 commons were around $10 E90-1s were maybe $15.
If there was no trickle down from the Wagner and slightly less from Plank, where would T206 commons be now.
I would say that being so easy, they would be less than 33 Goudey commons.

Similarly, I think 52 Topps owes most of its popularity to the Mantle. I don't think 52 Topps commons are tougher than say 53 Topps or 52 Bowman.

[Yoda]

I keep thinking about that old Wall St. maxim, "The Greater Fool Theory" where you are the last one holding the bag.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I keep thinking about that old Wall St. maxim, "The Greater Fool Theory" where you are the last one holding the bag.

I have been saying that for a very long time with graded cards and card collecting in general with the crazy prices and rampant scamming. So far I have been very WRONG.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I have been saying that for a very long time with graded cards and card collecting in general with the crazy prices and rampant scamming. So far I have been very WRONG.

If you look at past manias and crazes, sometimes it takes several years to work through the process, with the mania growing in leaps and bounds along the way, before reaching peak frothiness and finally something breaks and it all comes crashing down.

The tulip bulb mania in Holland is one of my faves, and seems apropos here. In the end, the high end stuff was still very valuable. But all of the low end stuff got washed out.

[parkplace33]

Interesting that Rea in the next auction not only has a 55 Koufax psa 9 but a 55 Clemente psa 9. I marvel how these high grade cards continue to be auctioned one after the other.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Interesting that Rea in the next auction not only has a 55 Koufax psa 9 but a 55 Clemente psa 9. I marvel how these high grade cards continue to be auctioned one after the other.

It's eerie, almost like some artisan is just churning them out, one after the other.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Interesting that Rea in the next auction not only has a 55 Koufax psa 9 but a 55 Clemente psa 9. I marvel how these high grade cards continue to be auctioned one after the other.

Obviously nosebleed prices have a way of bringing stuff out of collections and into the market.

At the same time, you always wonder when all of the buyers who are willing to pay nosebleed prices will be fully satiated. Or when they will run out of cash to keep buying.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by raulus

Or when they will run out of cash to keep buying.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by raulus

If you look at past manias and crazes, sometimes it takes several years to work through the process, with the mania growing in leaps and bounds along the way, before reaching peak frothiness and finally something breaks and it all comes crashing down.

The tulip bulb mania in Holland is one of my faves, and seems apropos here. In the end, the high end stuff was still very valuable. But all of the low end stuff got washed out.

Tulip mania was pretty much limited to three years.

I've been hearing about the pending collapse of card prices for about 45 years.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by steve B

Tulip mania was pretty much limited to three years.

I've been hearing about the pending collapse of card prices for about 45 years.

I’d say the asset class has gone through a few purgings in the last 50 years. Early 90s comes to mind in the wake of the crazy runup during the junk wax era. In the wake of the Great Recession there seems to have been another pretty solid pullback.

And given the recent runup during the pandemic of 300-1000%, which is maybe 2+ years old, I’d say that it’s a little early to proclaim that the parallels between this specific time and tulip mania are irrelevant.

[oldjudge]

LOL, looks like every auction has one—I’ll take the under