Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Bob, all fair points and I edited the title of the thread to call it an asset class vs hobby. You and I seem to keep crossing streams on content of titles vs the post, but since I created both, I will admit I created the confusion.

My question relates to cards as investments/an asset class. And I believe this question is relevant to many on this board, even those who consider themselves collectors - these things value, plain and simple, and people care about the value of things they own that have value.

So, to be clear, it’s my bad- I am looking at this card/sale as a market for the health of cards as an asset class

Ryan,

It is not your bad, and I agree with you wholeheartedly that the lines are absolutely blurred because most old timers that started out as just collectors have seen the value of their cards/collections skyrocket in recent years. Especially when you start talking about vintage and pre-war. It is literally impossible in most cases to separate Collectors from Investors anymore. The value that people's cards/collections may now have makes it impossible for them to ignore that along with their beloved hobby collection, they may also be sitting on a big profit as well. And as everyone starts getting older, you can't help but start thinking about retirement and estate issues and planning for spouses/family.

Now as for the health of the investment side/aspects of the hobby, that is a tough question as well. Unlike traditional investments (stocks, bonds, etc.), cards themselves don't have anything that really changes, unlike with stocks and bonds where companies can have good years and bad years, or interest rates rising and falling. To me, cards are more like one of those investment options that people are now starting to look at as potential alternatives to the traditional types of investments when the values of those traditional investments look to be going down. When the stock market is tanking and the interest rates are down, people may see prices rising in cards as an alternative investment choice they think can possibly do better over a short/long term than those more traditional investments. This recent pandemic surge though was a somewhat unique situation that saw both the traditional stock markets AND card prices rising. Likely due a lot to the excess cash being poured into our economy in anticipation of concern for the pandemic's effect on our overall economic health. Now that that all seems to have pretty much passed and ended, I wouldn't be surprised to still see cards as an investment option/choice, but maybe now working more so as an alternative to the traditional investments. So right now, with talks/fears of a major recession still in the picture, people that have moved some of their investment assets into these high-end, high-grade cards, may just keep them there for now. But with all the crap that has been going on with the economy and world of late, including all the unrelated external issues, the fact that the stock market hasn't completely imploded (in fact I thought I read where the market just ended the best quarter we've had since back in 2020), many investors may be thinking we are at, or close, to the bottom, and the stock market will begin rising going forward. In that case, I can see people getting out of cards and back into the more traditional investments at some point in maybe the not so distant future. In that case, as that may eventually start to happen, I think you'll see the Collectors keeping the lower end/condition cards in pretty similar value to where they are now. But the higher-end, higher priced investment grade/type cards, I can see those cooling off some as Investors may move more of their money back into the more traditional investment markets. Exactly when that may start to happen, well if I knew and could accurately predict that, I'd have been retired years ago. LOL

[BobbyStrawberry]

"Haters" gonna hate! A rising tide lifts all boats, remember?

[Touch'EmAll]

The interest and ability to purchase a PSA 9 Koufax RC draws from a very small crowd. First, you need $300.k discretionary funds. Second, you must want to buy that particular card instead of some other $300.k card such as a Ruth or Gehrig or Cobb, etc.

Statistically, not a lot of correlation with the PSA 9 Koufax and the masses that are searching shows and ebay for raw current modern, or even graded post-war HOFers.

Blowout forum has a thread kinda like - state of the hobby based on current shows. They report the hobby is alive, well and thriving based on what they see at shows - attendance, deals being made.

It sure wouldn't hurt the overall market if a PSA 9 Koufax RC goes for record price. On the flip side, if the Koufax tanks, how much effect will there be on the crowd buying modern Luka/Giannis/Mike Trout type stuff? To get a better fix on the market, better to track cards more attainable and desired by the masses.

However, this Koufax card sale must be considered rather important for the folks in that similar market.

But sure is fun and interesting to track what the high rollers are after and at what prices.

[MACollector]

Goldin has a show on Netflix starting April 28th. I will take the over just on the publicity and people that it may draw to the auction.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by MACollector

Goldin has a show.

I remember the Goldin show on HSN, didn't turn out so well for folks.

[Exhibitman]

The basic conceptual misalignment we have here is that cards are not a single asset class and card investors are not a single group. It is an oversimplification to treat any specific aspect of the hobby as a bellwether for the entire hobby. it is simply too diverse. A very interesting piece ran on Sports Collectors Daily recently with Chris McGill, the Co-Founder of Card Ladder, who provided some statistics on different segments of the hobby over the last 5 years:

Ultra-Modern: +639%

Modern: +744%

Vintage: +270%

Pre-War Vintage: 340%

Yet over 2022, modern was down 30% and prewar vintage was up 29%. it isn't monolithic. The 1986 Jordan RC losing 60% of its value from the market top didn't affect the market for T206 Cobbs or 1933 Goudey Ruths. Similarly, what happens with the 1955 Koufax will pass right by the guys looking for a Jim Brown rookie card.

[Rhotchkiss]

Deleted

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I remember the Goldin show on HSN, didn't turn out so well for folks.

History may not repeat itself, but does make for a good mirror.


Pump and dump 90s junk on "new investors" before it all came to a crashing halt.

When your neighbor with no knowledge can flip (insert asset here) its wont end pretty.

This time, its different.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

This time, it’s different.

Said by everyone, every time.

But this time it really is!

[JimC]

I assume by now most have seen that there is also a PSA 9 Koufax rookie in REA. Ryan, I'm curious - - does having two on the market at the same time alter your expectations?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by JimC

I assume by now most have seen that there is also a PSA 9 Koufax rookie in REA. Ryan, I'm curious - - does having two on the market at the same time alter your expectations?

Good question Jim. Honestly, I am not sure. My knee jerk reaction is that the REA 9 should negatively impact the Goldin one, but who knows - maybe people hold off on the REA one knowing they have a second bite on the Goldin one. In my experience, the second one usually goes for less than the first. That said, the cards I bid on are usually much rarer than a 55 Koufax, even in a 9, and they are less “commodity cards”, meaning a thinner overall audience. As a result, by eliminating the winner from the first one, there is usually less competition on the next one and it goes for less.

A great example of this is the t206 Speaker Drum. In May of 2021, Heritage auctioned off a PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum. I won it for $31,200. Three months later REA auctions another, arguably nicer, PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum and Luke stole it for $24,600! That is almost certainly because I was not a bidder, having already just “won” one. As an aside, I think there are only 3-5 Speaker Drums, compared to the 25+ psa 9/10 Koufax.

BTW- I am not a player for either Koufax.

[Bigdaddy]

Even before seeing the REA Koufax, I'm on the side of 'under'. Just a gut feel.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Good question Jim. Honestly, I am not sure. My knee jerk reaction is that the REA 9 should negatively impact the Goldin one, but who knows - maybe people hold off on the REA one knowing they have a second bite on the Goldin one. In my experience, the second one usually goes for less than the first. That said, the cards I bid on are usually much rarer than a 55 Koufax, even in a 9, and they are less “commodity cards”, meaning a thinner overall audience. As a result, by eliminating the winner from the first one, there is usually less competition on the next one and it goes for less.

A great example of this is the t206 Speaker Drum. In May of 2021, Heritage auctioned off a PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum. I won it for $31,200. Three months later REA auctions another, arguably nicer, PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum and Luke stole it for $24,600! That is almost certainly because I was not a bidder, having already just “won” one. As an aside, I think there are only 3-5 Speaker Drums, compared to the 25+ psa 9/10 Koufax.

BTW- I am not a player for either Koufax.

Not to steal or hijack your thread, but maybe add on to your initial question? How do both cards fair in regard to your $345K over/under query, AND which AH's Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more, including the BP?

I had initially guessed the '55 Topps Koufax card being sold by Goldin would be under, and I'm going to guess REA's will be under as well. Now I initially want to guess REA's Koufax card will go for a higher amount than Goldin's, but I'm wondering if for a card of this value if the Goldin vault doesn't possibly impact the final sales price? Someone using Goldin's vault can absolutely escape sales tax, whereas an REA buyer may end up with a significant sales tax liability of tens of thousands of dollars, which I can only assume they may factor into what they end up bidding. So, I'll reluctantly guess the Goldin Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more.

And though I understand and agree with Ryan's thinking and logic regarding a second, later sale usually going for less, that mostly works best when you have exactly the same bidders in both auctions. I'm not so sure there may be serious bidders in only one or the other auction, but not in both, for whatever the reason(s).

[raulus]

Originally Posted by BobC

Not to steal or hijack your thread, but maybe add on to your initial question? How do both cards fair in regard to your $345K over/under query, AND which AH's Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more, including the BP?

I had initially guessed the '55 Topps Koufax card being sold by Goldin would be under, and I'm going to guess REA's will be under as well. Now I initially want to guess REA's Koufax card will go for a higher amount than Goldin's, but I'm wondering if for a card of this value if the Goldin vault doesn't possibly impact the final sales price? Someone using Goldin's vault can absolutely escape sales tax, whereas an REA buyer may end up with a significant sales tax liability of tens of thousands of dollars, which I can only assume they may factor into what they end up bidding. So, I'll reluctantly guess the Goldin Koufax rookie card ends up selling for more.

Unless I’m completely barmy, I understand that a buyer on any platform can ship to most any vault, and with most (all?) of the vaults being located in no sales tax states, a buyer of the REA piece could enjoy similar sales tax treatment that a buyer enjoys when buying from Goldin with a straight deposit into the captive Goldin/CU vault.

Ergo, anyone looking to save by using a vault should be able to do so even when buying on platforms that don’t have an integrated vault.

Having said that, my preference is for all y’all to have to pay sales tax, so that I can benefit from the inherent bidding advantage that comes with living in a state with no sales tax.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Good question Jim. Honestly, I am not sure. My knee jerk reaction is that the REA 9 should negatively impact the Goldin one, but who knows - maybe people hold off on the REA one knowing they have a second bite on the Goldin one. In my experience, the second one usually goes for less than the first. That said, the cards I bid on are usually much rarer than a 55 Koufax, even in a 9, and they are less “commodity cards”, meaning a thinner overall audience. As a result, by eliminating the winner from the first one, there is usually less competition on the next one and it goes for less.

A great example of this is the t206 Speaker Drum. In May of 2021, Heritage auctioned off a PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum. I won it for $31,200. Three months later REA auctions another, arguably nicer, PSA 1 t206 Speaker Drum and Luke stole it for $24,600! That is almost certainly because I was not a bidder, having already just “won” one. As an aside, I think there are only 3-5 Speaker Drums, compared to the 25+ psa 9/10 Koufax.

BTW- I am not a player for either Koufax.

surprised you didn't bid on that one too but you make excellent points. I always appreciate your insight, Thanks.

[bobbyw8469]

Robert Edwards has a Koufax PSA 9 ending tomorrow. Let's see where that one ends.

[Snowman]

I actually built a multivariate statistical model to measure the effects of a player's RC being a multi player card, which also measured the effects of their 2nd year card being their first solo card (and not, for those with solo RCs), and the effects of having the rookie cup on the card. The data I collected took all HOFers first 3 years of Topps cards (excluding 52 & 53) and their relative prices in similar grade/value ranges.

I'd have to dig to find it, but I seem to recall that having a multi player RC made it worth something like 30% less on average than it would have been were it to be a solo RC. And that having a 2nd year card with a rookie cup or trophy being a player's first solo card made it worth something like 20% more than it would have otherwise been were that not the case.

[raulus]

Final answer: $288k. Kind of a let down..

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-12...sa-mint-9ka38t

[MACollector]

So was the Aaron at $480k!

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by raulus

Final answer: $288k. Kind of a let down..

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-12...sa-mint-9ka38t

Interesting. I had no idea the auction ended. A let down indeed. $288k is by FAR the lowest that card has sold for in the past 3 years (5 other sales)- 20% less the next lowest sale. I wonder whether it’s a canary in the coal mine for other high grade commodity cards or whether some other factor was at work.

[Exhibitman]

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

But I digress.

Is there still a stink on Goldin? Perhaps there are players who don’t want to bid with him?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

But I digress.

Is there still a stink on Goldin? Perhaps there are players who don’t want to bid with him?

agreed!

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

I mean, if we're questioning our own sanity, there's probably a good reason.

And obviously $288k is only disappointing in the context that the last fistful went for $360-$400k. In isolation, getting that much bread for a single piece is certainly a nice haul.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I can’t believe that these numbers are disappointing. What’re we, nuts? I’ll take two vg cards and a condo in Kona instead.

Exactly, at some point the common man has to say "I can sell and buy what????" Although the people buying may have a condo or two in Kona

[skelly423]

Deleted

[Touch'EmAll]

Who might be in the market for such a spendy card ? Not many to begin with, then consider 5 other sales in the last 3 years. Now we have less than not many who are honestly interested in shelling out big $ for such a card. Auction prices only go big when there are bidders who really want the item.

I followed the recent Memory Lane auction that had quite a few Hank Aaron's in PSA 8. The ending prices did seem a bit low all around - so yes, perhaps a softening of the post-war vintage market. Although most were not near perfectly centered, could have something to do with it.

Finally, the centering on the '55 Koufax - left/right ok, but top/bottom was 40/60 ish. More and more with post-war vintage the big prices now only come with near perfect centering. And with such an iconic card as the Koufax rookie, most I bet would want better than 40/60 to seriously consider shelling out for a PSA 9.

Now the prices this year for nice Ruth, Cobb & Wagner have been strong. They are more scarce than anything post-war vintage. In fact, with all the auctions already this year, hard to consider even the blue chip post-war cards scarce - I see so many continually offered. For instance, there have been many '54 Aaron's offered for sale/auction this year - there is a lot out there, more than I thought a few years ago.

Go Pre-War big names !