Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[Leon]

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, most likely less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Adam, i disagree with this statement. Indeed, I think its very relevant and think this sale could serve as a canary in the coalmine for the broader hobby/industry.

Whoever is buying this card is either doing so purely as investment, is a super wealthy collector who we must assume has the financial cognizance to know if they are making a poor financial decision, or some degree of both. In other words, the bidders on a high-grade, high-profile, expensive card like this is, and know they are, making a financial decision when they decide to place a bid they hope wins the auction. This is not a T206 Wagner, BN Ruth, Just So Young or something super rare -- this is a full commodity card. I think the hammer price on high-end commodity cards are very relevant to values across the hobby/industry.

[Flintboy]

Looking at the REA scans, that card if resubmitted today would probably grade an 8 at best.

[bnorth]

I haven't taken selling serious in a very long time. When are the closing dates? I know years ago if the closing dates are close the one that finished first always sold for more on similar items.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I haven't taken selling serious in a very long time. When are the closing dates? I know years ago if the closing dates are close the one that finished first always sold for more on similar items.

I think that's long been the trend.

I've noticed over the last couple of years that it's flipped, probably mostly due to FOMO and a lot of emotional bidding. All the people who missed out on the first one swear a blood oath that they're going to absatively get the next one. So they go even more nuts than on the first one, and bid it up even higher.

Likely just a sign of how frothy the market has been over the last couple of years.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Leon

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, maybe less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

See, great minds think alike...

I just don't buy the 'trickle down' view of card prices.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Leon

I am with Adam on this one. There is probably 1/2 of 1 percent of collectors on this forum, maybe less, that can afford a card like that. I am much more interested in T206 Red Cobbs and Goudey Ruth 144s, in medium conditions, as far as the health of the pre war market.

Leon, I'm with you and Adam as well, sorry Ryan. I do not disagree with what Ryan was saying, but I believe he's confusing the health of the "investment" market for cards, with the health of the actual "hobby" for cards. And those are realistically two entirely different things IMO.

As you noted, only a very extremely small percentage of members on Net54, let alone in the hobby community itself, would ever be able to afford to be paying that kind of money for any card/collection. I know I can't afford that kind of money, and am perfectly happy with the lower grade '55 Topps Koufax card(s) I have had for years. A Collector is happy to have a nice version of a card they want, and isn't necessarily worried about it being this or that grade. Would it be nice to have a NM 7 version of a card as opposed to say a VG-EX 4 version, well of course, but a Collector would likely be most happy just to have a nice version of that card, period. An Investor, on the other hand, isn't necessarily worried about having this or that particular card, just one that they think they can make a lot of money off of buying, holding, and then later reselling it for a profit.

The fact that card shows are making a comeback after the pandemic, attendance is up and great, the hobby is all over the internet and making a splash, seems to show the hobby is alive and doing well. As long as baseball is still around and followed and watched by so many people, I think the hobby itself will be fine, and there will always be Collectors keeping it alive and healthy.

Now as for the Investors, that may be a different story. If these high-priced card prices start tanking, and the Investors start getting out, I think that would actually be even better for the Collectors in the hobby as all of these much desired cards will start to become more affordable and available to the everyday, true Collectors. As soon as you start trying to tie and equate hobby prices to hobby health, you aren't really talking about a hobby anymore, you're talking about an investment industry choice.

And to stay on topic for the OP's question, I think under.

[Republicaninmass]

Yet the rising tide lifts all boats.



Honestly...

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Yet the rising tide lifts all boats.



Honestly...

Yes, but just because the tide goes out, it doesn't mean the boat has sunk either.

[Rhotchkiss]

Bob, all fair points and I edited the title of the thread to call it an asset class vs hobby. You and I seem to keep crossing streams on content of titles vs the post, but since I created both, I will admit I created the confusion.

My question relates to cards as investments/an asset class. And I believe this question is relevant to many on this board, even those who consider themselves collectors - these things have value, plain and simple, and people care about the value of things they own that have value.

So, to be clear, it’s my bad- I am looking at this card/sale as a marker for the health of cards as an asset class and asking whether people think it will go over/under an price point I established, and why.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Bob, all fair points and I edited the title of the thread to call it an asset class vs hobby. You and I seem to keep crossing streams on content of titles vs the post, but since I created both, I will admit I created the confusion.

My question relates to cards as investments/an asset class. And I believe this question is relevant to many on this board, even those who consider themselves collectors - these things value, plain and simple, and people care about the value of things they own that have value.

So, to be clear, it’s my bad- I am looking at this card/sale as a market for the health of cards as an asset class

Ryan,

It is not your bad, and I agree with you wholeheartedly that the lines are absolutely blurred because most old timers that started out as just collectors have seen the value of their cards/collections skyrocket in recent years. Especially when you start talking about vintage and pre-war. It is literally impossible in most cases to separate Collectors from Investors anymore. The value that people's cards/collections may now have makes it impossible for them to ignore that along with their beloved hobby collection, they may also be sitting on a big profit as well. And as everyone starts getting older, you can't help but start thinking about retirement and estate issues and planning for spouses/family.

Now as for the health of the investment side/aspects of the hobby, that is a tough question as well. Unlike traditional investments (stocks, bonds, etc.), cards themselves don't have anything that really changes, unlike with stocks and bonds where companies can have good years and bad years, or interest rates rising and falling. To me, cards are more like one of those investment options that people are now starting to look at as potential alternatives to the traditional types of investments when the values of those traditional investments look to be going down. When the stock market is tanking and the interest rates are down, people may see prices rising in cards as an alternative investment choice they think can possibly do better over a short/long term than those more traditional investments. This recent pandemic surge though was a somewhat unique situation that saw both the traditional stock markets AND card prices rising. Likely due a lot to the excess cash being poured into our economy in anticipation of concern for the pandemic's effect on our overall economic health. Now that that all seems to have pretty much passed and ended, I wouldn't be surprised to still see cards as an investment option/choice, but maybe now working more so as an alternative to the traditional investments. So right now, with talks/fears of a major recession still in the picture, people that have moved some of their investment assets into these high-end, high-grade cards, may just keep them there for now. But with all the crap that has been going on with the economy and world of late, including all the unrelated external issues, the fact that the stock market hasn't completely imploded (in fact I thought I read where the market just ended the best quarter we've had since back in 2020), many investors may be thinking we are at, or close, to the bottom, and the stock market will begin rising going forward. In that case, I can see people getting out of cards and back into the more traditional investments at some point in maybe the not so distant future. In that case, as that may eventually start to happen, I think you'll see the Collectors keeping the lower end/condition cards in pretty similar value to where they are now. But the higher-end, higher priced investment grade/type cards, I can see those cooling off some as Investors may move more of their money back into the more traditional investment markets. Exactly when that may start to happen, well if I knew and could accurately predict that, I'd have been retired years ago. LOL

[BobbyStrawberry]

"Haters" gonna hate! A rising tide lifts all boats, remember?