Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[Casey2296]

Nice card.

I'll take the under on the 9, guessing 295K-325K range, although it only takes a couple of registry guys or a "recommendation" to a "client" that this is a solid investment to drive the price north.

Maybe it's my eyes or an optical illusion but doesn't the bottom edge look wavy?

Your last paragraph got a chuckle too.

[raulus]

Predictions on pieces like this are always a fool’s errand, although as fortune’s fool, perhaps I’ll proffer a few lame and mostly self-evident observations.

Not many of us have the deep pockets to swim in these deep waters. Even if we do have pockets so deep, we might prefer to avoid sinking it all into a single card, and instead prefer to spread our wealth around.

As a result, I suspect that the final price will largely be governed by 2-4 potential buyers. Although it’s possible that others might be in the mix, including someone for whom this might represent their only foray into the hobby, my inclination is to guess that these potential buyers are either major Koufax fanboyz/collectors or else serious collectors of this set. Just how crazy those buyers are willing to get will largely be a question of how they’re feeling in the last couple of days before and especially the day of the auction closing.

Do their animal spirits come alive? Do they throw caution to the wind and let it rip? How drunk do they get? And in the days/weeks before the auction, what else is swirling in their lives that emotionally pushes them one way or the other? How long have they been saving up their pennies for this specific card in this specific grade? Do they get emotionally attached to the idea that they have to win this one, no matter what? Do they start mentally preparing a spot on the wall where this one will go, such that they already view it as theirs, and decide to not back down even in the face of someone equally determined to win it? As you can tell, I’m projecting a bit now.

One of the other elements here is how often these babies come to market in this high grade. It looks like there’s been a handful over the last couple of years, which probably helps to satiate some of the pent up demand out there. For high grade pieces that haven’t come to market during the pandemic, often the pent up demand is pretty overpowering, with those pieces going absofreakinglutely nuts.

But getting back to those potential buyers, since so many of these questions are so uniquely personal, are dependent on future events, and for people that are probably largely unknown to most of us, it’s impossible to really even begin to attempt to predict with any degree of precision.

Having said all of that, my general sense is that when high graded, low pop pieces for inner circle hall of famers, particularly for their early years come to market, the market continues to surprise me. Even shock me to a great extent.

Accordingly, I tend to be inclined to guess high. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one approaches or even exceeds $400k (with the juice, natch). But like some of the earlier comments, my sense is that the range here is wide, anywhere from $250-500, depending on just how many players decide to get into it, and just how nuts they’re willing to go to make sure that they land this piece.

[Bkrum]

Interesting topic that I will take a swing at. When I checked out the card the first thing I noticed is that the card didn’t have the usual sharpness that I often note with the Koufax rookie. Sandy’s usual dark, tan complexion looked a little light or faded. Otherwise the card is gorgeous with immaculate centering and corners but it didn’t “speak to me”. So if the standard is in the range of all time highs I will take the under. Put me in the 325k camp
Just my two cents…..

[pawpawdiv9]

under -barely reaches 300, then new buyer re-sells in 6 months for a nice profit.
*forgot ya'll that didnt get the notice, the re-boom is coming back in 6 months.
LOL

[rand1com]

Easily over. A newly graded 9 will bring in the high rollers because it will be perceived as the nicest 9 on the planet. The economy does not affect buyers that can afford a card like this.

[bnorth]

Mainly because of who the AH is I will say WAY over the highest bid will be.

[Yoda]

Somebody will buy it.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by rand1com

Easily over. A newly graded 9 will bring in the high rollers because it will be perceived as the nicest 9 on the planet. The economy does not affect buyers that can afford a card like this.

I don’t think it’s newly graded. While I am no PSA expert, I am pretty sure it’s a very old cert#; I just think it’s been reholdered. In my experience, PSA certs that start with 0, 3, and 9, are old and often overgraded compared to others.

[parkplace33]

Over, and solely over due to who the auction house is.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

In my experience, PSA certs that start with 0, 3, and 9, are old and often overgraded compared to others.

I think we've discussed in a few of the trimming threads (and others where people ask), that PSA certs did not go in numerical order, until they started picking up around 20 years ago and then filling in all the certs that were never issued. So while some 30,xxx,xxx certs (and 50M, 90M) were graded 20+ years ago, the vast majority of 30M certs were graded 5-6 years ago, and the 50M that weren't ancient were graded during the COVID boom. PSA hasn't gotten to 90M yet, so all those are ancient. This one starting with 03 is definitely ancient and reholdered.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I don’t think it’s newly graded. While I am no PSA expert, I am pretty sure it’s a very old cert#; I just think it’s been reholdered. In my experience, PSA certs that start with 0, 3, and 9, are old and often overgraded compared to others.

It is an old cert number. Not sure it gets a 9 today.. Registration is off on front by his name and several small fisheyes on the same plane. Also the back seems to have a diamond print (card not diamond cut) if you look close at bottom line.

That said I vote $200-$250k for some reason...