T206 Set...Minus the Big Four, and other Subsets...Will values keep climbing?

[MVSNYC]

"Will values keep going up? Over the short term, no clue. Over the long term, I believe yes- I have seen values go up steadily over almost 40 years of collecting, they aren’t making any more, and t206 is the most famous and collectible set out there - it’s the monster!"

I agree with Ryan. No one has a crystal ball, but like Ryan, I have been collecting T206 for almost 4 decades, and I've only ever seen them go up in value.

The wise Scott Levy once told me..."Try to collect the best players you can, from the best sets you can, in the best condition you can." I think in the case of T206 we can add to that..."with the rarest backs you can."

[Exhibitman]

Don't forget inflation. The real question is whether prices will rise faster than the rate of inflation over the long haul. Cumulative inflation over the last 25 years has been nearly 90%; a card had to just about double in price just to maintain its value. If a card was $20 in 1997 I would expect it to cost at least $40 today.

[MVSNYC]

Adam, agreed, good conversation.

Some rough data, using rare backs as examples...

In 1997 a lower grade Drum was probably $500 (or less)...today you can't buy one for less than $5,000, and depending on player and condition they can easily sky-rocket from there. Uzit- $300-400 in 1997...today $4,000+. Common Hindus, maybe $100-150 in 1997. I was outbid on one the other night for $1,500.

I'd estimate that most rare backs are around 10x today versus where they were 25 years ago.

[Cory]

I had it estimated between 50k and 100k, and I'm over 90% of the way card wise but maybe 60-70%% cost wise. I think 100k is more realistic. The top 20 cards will likely be half the cost depending on condition and flaws you can live with. 4 Cobbs, 3 Youngs, 3 Mattys, 2 Wajos, 3 Naps, Speaker, Lundgren Chi, Demmit and O'Hara and Elberfeld Wash.

If you don't enjoy the hunt I think buying a set already completed or near completed is likely the most economical way. They seem to trade at a discount rather than premium.

[Vintage Vern]

Honest question, how many will continue to collect vintage especially with the prices now? I don't know a ton of people collecting especially younger folks, but I know very few that collect pre war, and most that do collect now, have to have a ton of extra cash to just waste. Some day the demand won't be nearly as strong as it is now. I'd imagine most of the high dollar cards/sets are held by people that got them many moons ago at a much more manageable price. Just like collector cars its more about generational interest. Not many 20 or 30 year olds want street rods or muscle cars, and some that do probably can't afford them. The people that have them want more than most can afford so the demand vs value isn't there. They would rather spend 30 grand on a tuner then 60 or 125 grand on something from the 30's - 70's. At some point it will be a very small group that values the cards many think will never lose value. Most of those will be the rich. No one else can really play, so once they (the wealthy) don't care I don't see much future. How many things in life did you think or feel would be forever that are all but forgotten? I don't see cards any different.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

Honest question, how many will continue to collect vintage especially with the prices now? I don't know a ton of people collecting especially younger folks, but I know very few that collect pre war, and most that do collect now, have to have a ton of extra cash to just waste. Some day the demand won't be nearly as strong as it is now. I'd imagine most of the high dollar cards/sets are held by people that got them many moons ago at a much more manageable price. Just like collector cars its more about generational interest. Not many 20 or 30 year olds want street rods or muscle cars, and some that do probably can't afford them. The people that have them want more than most can afford so the demand vs value isn't there. They would rather spend 30 grand on a tuner then 60 or 125 grand on something from the 30's - 70's. At some point it will be a very small group that values the cards many think will never lose value. Most of those will be the rich. No one else can really play, so once they (the wealthy) don't care I don't see much future. How many things in life did you think or feel would be forever that are all but forgotten? I don't see cards any different.

Welcome to the doom and gloom club, Vern. You’ll find it’s a lonely club around these parts. Only trouble is the market keeps disproving our hypothesis!

[Centauri]

I think when it comes to the next generation…the modern stuff is only gaining in popularity. And as long as people collect baseball cards, the T206 will always be out there as this bright and mysterious light, beckoning those who want to reach for the sky.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by raulus

Welcome to the doom and gloom club, Vern. You’ll find it’s a lonely club around these parts. Only trouble is the market keeps disproving our hypothesis!

Not doom or gloom, just a fact that hits every hobby at some point. What's being disproven?

[Metsfan0507]

This is something I'm struggling with as a relatively young (mid 30s) collector just getting into pre-war vintage. Do I buy now because prices will only continue to rise, or wait for prices to drop as older collectors start liquidating their collection (or their heirs do it for them). People in their 20s and 30s now for the most part can't really afford to drop thousands on Cobbs, Youngs, etc while also trying to buy houses and start families, so are they going to suddenly start buying (and spending big $) when they have more $ in their 50s and 60s? I imagine most of the $ being spent now is people in their 50s and 60s that started collecting in their 20s and 30s when costs weren't prohibitive, so they were hooked from an early age. Will the hobby continue to hook people who can only afford to enter the hobby at a much later age? Without new younger buyers, at some point prices have to drop to the point that it does attract new younger buyers.

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

Honest question, how many will continue to collect vintage especially with the prices now? I don't know a ton of people collecting especially younger folks, but I know very few that collect pre war, and most that do collect now, have to have a ton of extra cash to just waste. Some day the demand won't be nearly as strong as it is now. I'd imagine most of the high dollar cards/sets are held by people that got them many moons ago at a much more manageable price. Just like collector cars its more about generational interest. Not many 20 or 30 year olds want street rods or muscle cars, and some that do probably can't afford them. The people that have them want more than most can afford so the demand vs value isn't there. They would rather spend 30 grand on a tuner then 60 or 125 grand on something from the 30's - 70's. At some point it will be a very small group that values the cards many think will never lose value. Most of those will be the rich. No one else can really play, so once they (the wealthy) don't care I don't see much future. How many things in life did you think or feel would be forever that are all but forgotten? I don't see cards any different.

[asphaltman]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

This is something I'm struggling with as a relatively young (mid 30s) collector just getting into pre-war vintage. Do I buy now because prices will only continue to rise, or wait for prices to drop as older collectors start liquidating their collection (or their heirs do it for them). People in their 20s and 30s now for the most part can't really afford to drop thousands on Cobbs, Youngs, etc while also trying to buy houses and start families, so are they going to suddenly start buying (and spending big $) when they have more $ in their 50s and 60s? I imagine most of the $ being spent now is people in their 50s and 60s that started collecting in their 20s and 30s when costs weren't prohibitive, so they were hooked from an early age. Will the hobby continue to hook people who can only afford to enter the hobby at a much later age? Without new younger buyers, at some point prices have to drop to the point that it does attract new younger buyers.

This was also my same argument 25 years ago when I got into the hobby in my 20's. 25 years later...the next generation has just continued to push prices...We are 110 years past T206....hard to think everything relies on just the baby boomer generation having maxed this set out...but who knows.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

This is something I'm struggling with as a relatively young (mid 30s) collector just getting into pre-war vintage. Do I buy now because prices will only continue to rise, or wait for prices to drop as older collectors start liquidating their collection (or their heirs do it for them). People in their 20s and 30s now for the most part can't really afford to drop thousands on Cobbs, Youngs, etc while also trying to buy houses and start families, so are they going to suddenly start buying (and spending big $) when they have more $ in their 50s and 60s? I imagine most of the $ being spent now is people in their 50s and 60s that started collecting in their 20s and 30s when costs weren't prohibitive, so they were hooked from an early age. Will the hobby continue to hook people who can only afford to enter the hobby at a much later age? Without new younger buyers, at some point prices have to drop to the point that it does attract new younger buyers.

The print runs are low enough that the top name Hofers and rare backs are going to rise. Commons and lower level Hofers may level off and drop as people can no longer afford to collect the set.

I see this being a problem for modern, people will move on to the hot new player, and postwar vintage. With much higher populations, prices could easily surpass the demand from a shrinking collector base.