T206 Set...Minus the Big Four, and other Subsets...Will values keep climbing?

[Metsfan0507]

Possibly, but the question is- who will continue to buy these stars in 30 years to continue to drive up the price? Will the 20-30 somethings of today eventually find the same interest in T206 as the 20-30 somethings of 30 years ago? I think we all hope that the answer is yes, but it's hard to say right now. A huge driver of this hobby is nostalgia- will people be nostalgic for cards they never collected in their youth because they couldn't afford them? Or will they be nostalgic for the modern/ultra modern cards that they did buy?

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Stars will continue to rise, but the commons (especially low grade) are coming down.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

Possibly, but the question is- who will continue to buy these stars in 30 years to continue to drive up the price? Will the 20-30 somethings of today eventually find the same interest in T206 as the 20-30 somethings of 30 years ago? I think we all hope that the answer is yes, but it's hard to say right now. A huge driver of this hobby is nostalgia- will people be nostalgic for cards they never collected in their youth because they couldn't afford them? Or will they be nostalgic for the modern/ultra modern cards that they did buy?

In 1960 Burdick wrote that a card collection is "a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day—brought to life in vivid picture and prose."

Card collecting isn't just about nostalgia for our own experiences, it is about a personality type that revels in old things and the continuum of history, that connects in a metaphysical sense with whatever inhabits old objects, that finds peace in the existence, the survival of a scrap of cardboard for a century or more, despite the way the world has changed. We collect because we are driven to it, just as an artist is driven to create art, a performer is driven to take to the stage. I saw Paul Rodriguez at an open mic, Jay Leno doing a set at a small club, not because they have to but because they need to.

Terence Mann : Ray, people will come Ray. They'll come to card shows for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up the driveway not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won't mind if you buy a Ruth, you'll say. It's only $20,000 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to the food court; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have an overpriced hot dog and soda somewhere along one of the aisles, where they sit dressed like children and look at baseball cards. And they'll read the cards and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. Collectors will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been cards. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But card collecting has marked the time. This cardboard, this hobby: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... collectors will come Ray. Collectors will most definitely come.



Or we'll all decide this is gigantic waste of time and we need to get a life, and burn the crap for warmth...

[Republicaninmass]

Plowing your money into graded common/common backs in grades 1-3 likely wont end well

[Yoda]

Adam, I think you captured the essence of what being a true collector is all about.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

In 1960 Burdick wrote that a card collection is "a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day—brought to life in vivid picture and prose."

Card collecting isn't just about nostalgia for our own experiences, it is about a personality type that revels in old things and the continuum of history, that connects in a metaphysical sense with whatever inhabits old objects, that finds peace in the existence, the survival of a scrap of cardboard for a century or more, despite the way the world has changed. We collect because we are driven to it, just as an artist is driven to create art, a performer is driven to take to the stage. I saw Paul Rodriguez at an open mic, Jay Leno doing a set at a small club, not because they have to but because they need to.

Terence Mann : Ray, people will come Ray. They'll come to card shows for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up the driveway not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won't mind if you buy a Ruth, you'll say. It's only $20,000 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to the food court; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have an overpriced hot dog and soda somewhere along one of the aisles, where they sit dressed like children and look at baseball cards. And they'll read the cards and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. Collectors will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been cards. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But card collecting has marked the time. This cardboard, this hobby: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... collectors will come Ray. Collectors will most definitely come.



Or we'll all decide this is gigantic waste of time and we need to get a life, and burn the crap for warmth...

Very few things survive in our culture, and old things or ways of life are forgotten on a grand scale. Lives change, cultures change, and so do things that are old. I can guarantee what my dad thought was old and worthy of collecting, his grandkids and great grandkids will have absolutely no interest in preserving.

I was always waiting for grandkids so I could pass down my love for vintage cars. Well I have 4 grandkids, all under the age of 5. The problem now for me is what can I pass down to them? I was hoping to build each of them a classic of some sort that fit their own personality. Problem being vintage cars may not be allowed on our streets by that time nor can I afford them at going rate. How many people will preserve something that no longer can be used that once had value, but no longer will. Time changes much of what we don't think will ever change.

[RCMcKenzie]

My understanding is that you don't collect baseball cards, except for Clemons, who has like 3 or 4 cards.

I wouldn't go to a Classic Mustang chat board and tell people that one day in the future Ford's will be worthless. For me it's a fun hobby.

[Touch'EmAll]

Very few things survive in our culture.

My grandfather was a baseball fan, went to games, collected cards.
My dad was a baseball fan, went to games, collected cards.
I am a baseball fan, attended games, collect cards.
My kid is a fan, has gone to games, collects cards.

Baseball will continue to be played well after I am gone. And I suspect cards will continue to be made and collected many, many years from now.

My guess is that baseball cards and collecting are one of the few things that will survive.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Very few things survive in our culture.

My grandfather was a baseball fan, went to games, collected cards.
My dad was a baseball fan, went to games, collected cards.
I am a baseball fan, attended games, collect cards.
My kid is a fan, has gone to games, collects cards.

Baseball will continue to be played well after I am gone. And I suspect cards will continue to be made and collected many, many years from now.

My guess is that baseball cards and collecting are one of the few things that will survive.

Cool story, but that's the only way most people can have the cards many can't afford today from yesteryear. I can guarantee my Great grandfather, my grandfather, my dad and my son don't share the same interests. Until my dad there was little money, and lots of kids that worked as farm hands. Frivolous items didn't exist in their lives. My dad had a stick and rock to play Baseball with. He slept in a barn because they had a two room house for 8 kids and had no indoor plumbing. I can guarantee none of them went to a baseball game or had a card. If any where still here I would ask them.

[RCMcKenzie]

I forgot to answer Dave's original question. My dad bought me a Leaf Jackie Robinson for $45 and 20 years later I sold it for $250, now it would be $4000. Is this sustainable? I don't know. Maybe Chad is correct, but I try to stay within a budget, like with anything else, vacations, sporting events, etc.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I forgot to answer Dave's original question. My dad bought me a Leaf Jackie Robinson for $45 and 20 years later I sold it for $250, now it would be $4000. Is this sustainable? I don't know. Maybe Chad is correct, but I try to stay within a budget, like with anything else, vacations, sporting events, etc.

Rob,

Talking about one specific card, from one specific set, from one specific player, who is also recognized as one of the all-time greats of the game, AND as well as for his place in history in regards to issues surrounding segregation and racism not just in baseball, but in everyday life here in the U.S. as well. Not sure that is a good or particularly relevant example to use to help decide this particular question.

Also, I don't think the question should necessarily include or be about the recent pandemic surge in prices we've seen as well. Kind of like stocks, card prices can fluctuate on a more current basis over time. But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I forgot to answer Dave's original question. My dad bought me a Leaf Jackie Robinson for $45 and 20 years later I sold it for $250, now it would be $4000. Is this sustainable? I don't know. Maybe Chad is correct, but I try to stay within a budget, like with anything else, vacations, sporting events, etc.

Rob,

Talking about one specific card, from one specific set, from one specific player, who is also recognized as one of the all-time greats of the game, AND as well as for his place in history in regards to issues surrounding segregation and racism not just in baseball, but in everyday life here in the U.S. as well. Not sure that is a good or particularly relevant example to use to help decide this particular question.

Also, I don't think the question should necessarily include or be about the recent pandemic surge in prices we've seen as well. Kind of like stocks, card prices can fluctuate on a more current basis over time. But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by BobC

But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

Of course, I don’t know the answer to this. But I do know prices have gone up regularly and steadily over the 40 years I have been collecting, despite the fact that every person who saw and remember the t206 players has been dead for decades. I believe that trend will continue.

Vintage Vern, you can play with your cars. I will play with my cardboard. Time will tell who is right.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by BobC

Rob,

Talking about one specific card, from one specific set, from one specific player, who is also recognized as one of the all-time greats of the game, AND as well as for his place in history in regards to issues surrounding segregation and racism not just in baseball, but in everyday life here in the U.S. as well. Not sure that is a good or particularly relevant example to use to help decide this particular question.

Also, I don't think the question should necessarily include or be about the recent pandemic surge in prices we've seen as well. Kind of like stocks, card prices can fluctuate on a more current basis over time. But to me, the OP's question is will those card prices over time continue to show an overall, ongoing rise.

Bob, I could have chosen more examples. Dave's question has already been answered by many others above. I was responding to Chad's 5 or so posts in a row that cards are bad and realized I was going off topic, and tried to circle back.

I know I oversimplify things and make too many loose analogies.

Around 1980,T206 Cobbs in vg were around $125 when the Leaf Jackie was $45. Leaf Ruth was $75. Prices have soared in the last 20 years. To me the wild surge around the pandemic were cards from 2000-present, which to me is a different hobby.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

My understanding is that you don't collect baseball cards, except for Clemons, who has like 3 or 4 cards.

I wouldn't go to a Classic Mustang chat board and tell people that one day in the future Ford's will be worthless. For me it's a fun hobby.

No, he has 6 not including the reprint, but has at least 1 colgan's chips as well. I seen 2 listed, but have only seen 1 that has actually surfaced. The curtis ireland have no idea if any exist. I actually find it much more challenging trying to find his cards then many that are easy to get. Especially if you have endless funds. I actually had cards when I was younger from the 30s 50s through the 70s. My Mom gave them away. I collect more than just Verne,he's just part of.

Sad fact is many classic cars will be worthless other than museum pieces. The same thing is happening with them as with any other hobby which turns more into an investment. The big pockets drive the market out of reach for the common person to participate, and people lose interest because they can't have, but to dream of. If you actually compare the two they have a lot of similarities on how both have been turned into investments vs hobby.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by Metsfan0507

Possibly, but the question is- who will continue to buy these stars in 30 years to continue to drive up the price? Will the 20-30 somethings of today eventually find the same interest in T206 as the 20-30 somethings of 30 years ago? I think we all hope that the answer is yes, but it's hard to say right now. A huge driver of this hobby is nostalgia- will people be nostalgic for cards they never collected in their youth because they couldn't afford them? Or will they be nostalgic for the modern/ultra modern cards that they did buy?

Exactly.

[BobC]

Some very interesting posts, and also some very misguided ones.

When the sports card, particularly the baseball card, hobby really started taking off in the 1980's, it was fueled pretty much entirely by the Baby Boomer generation starting to reach middle age, and the desire for cards those Baby Boomers used to buy and collect at the local corner store (and elsewhere) when they were kids. It was a return to childhood, and for many simpler times. And with the rise in that demand, our wonderful capitalistic society immediately saw the potential to make money off these reminiscing adults, and the card hobby as it has eventually come to be as we know it today, was born. Oddly though, no one in that Baby Boomer generation was around or ever collected T206 cards. When the hobby card surge started back in the '80s, T206 cards were already 70+ years old, and weren't the focus of the Baby Boomer collecting surge.

So, what is with those naysayer's claims, going on about how the current (and future) generations won't be as interested in collecting T206 cards, and thus because of high prices and diminishing demand, that they fully expect T206 prices to fall in the coming years? They point to other hobbies as the examples of this happening. A few questions to them then. Based on what some of you are saying, T206 cards never should have become such popular collectibles to begin with, so how the heck did that ever happen in the first place? And what exactly are these other hobbies you are pointing to as examples of how T206 cards will face diminishing demand/prices going forward? I'm wondering if you may not be over generalizing, or making your assumptions on facts and circumstances that may not be as similar between these other hobbies and T206 collecting as you may think.

Is it at all possible, or did you ever even consider that, regardless of collector's ages or generations, there is always going to be a percentage of people that like to collect things? And that just like the Baby Boomers that started looking for their childhood cards back in the '80s, a percentage of them with that collecting bug will eventually transition to older pre-war cards, such as the T206s, due to their combined love/interest in the game of baseball, their appreciation of history, as well as the artistic and other aspects these older cards and collectibles presented? Such as having something that no one else, or at least only a very few other people, ever had. Isn't that pretty much exactly why the modern collectors favor manufactured rarities, where they may have the only one known to exist for themselves? But then what happens when they finally realize that that 1-of-1 Ohtani card they lucked out and pulled from a pack eventually turns out to be one of literally hundreds (if not eventually thousands) of 1-of-1 Ohtani cards that will ultimately be produced over time? Same thing with a player's rookie card, especially during the prime of Topps early years. They was literally only one, completely agreed upon by the hobby community, Topps rookie card of their beloved HOFers. Nowadays, how many different cards of a player's "rookie" (or even pre-rookie) card get released among all the different sets put out yearly, with all the different subsets, variations, versions and so on? You want a Pete Rose rookie, everyone knows you go for his "63 Toops card. What card do you get for Ohtani's rookie card then? Or maybe a better question is how many different cards can be considered as his rookie card then from his MLB rookie season? Is it at all possible that the collecting bug in many people will eventually kick in and have at least a portion of those young, modern collectors start looking at the older, vintage and pre-war items that truly are rare and in small supply, and not just manufactured that way? I sure wouldn't bet against that happening.

And as for other hobbies as examples of diminishing demand and interest, and therefor pricing, are you talking about things like say stamp collecting or model trains? If so, it is true that younger people are not that into hobbies such as those, and thus collector interest (and resulting prices) has seen some down turns over the past several decades. But are those younger generation's declining interest due entirely to prices and availability, or was it maybe more because the younger generations started to experience a disconnect and loss of experience/interaction with those types of hobbies, and what was ultimately behind them? For example, we still have trains in use today, but are they still the major transportation venue they once were in this country? How many of you regularly as a kid rode on trains to get anywhere? Isn't the emphasis seemingly on cars, trucks and planes for transportation of people and goods anymore? When you see newer, modern TV shows and movies, how many of them now focus on train travel for transportation versus planes, trucks and cars? See the point, kids (ie: future collectors) haven't been seeing and hearing as much about trains as they used to. And in fact, with the recent issues with derailments and so on. the entire industry is being looked upon with an even more unfavorable light in today's thinking. And besides, it is so much easier (and cheaper) to create a video game with trains if someone really wants the experience, as opposed to buying and setting up a train set anymore. The kids are no longer into it. Same kind of thing with stamps. Tell anyone in the younger generations you still pay your bills by mailing a check WITH A STAMP, and they laugh at you. Also, in the older days, mail from foreign countries would be delivered, and thus those foreign stamps be much more accessible and available to kids for collecting. But nowadays, no one mails anything. They use email, text messages, Facebook, Tic-Toc, Twitter, and on and on, so no one is using stamps like they used to. Meanwhile, baseball, though not as popular a sport and played by virtually every kid as it once was in America, is still played, followed and loved by a huge portion of the population today, and from the looks of it, for the foreseeable future. In fact, with players like Ohtani, and the recent WBC tournament, baseball's declining popularity in the U.S. seems to be more than being made up by its increasing popularity in other parts of the world. Much like basketball seems to have taken off on a worldwide scale.

I would think that as long as baseball is a viable, well watched and followed sport in this country, younger generations will still be drawn to it and the cards that are produced of the players of their generation(s). And as such and knowing that many of these younger generation people will also invariably have that collecting bug/DNA in them, they will eventually pick up and become interested in the older vintage, pre-war cards as well. And as the population continues to rise, that means in all likelihood there would be even more future baseball collectors to be interested in the older vintage, pre-war cards. And of course, inflation will always be a part of our existence as well it seems. So, just by that fact alone, the cards you have today will likely go up in value just by holding onto them and due to that inflation factor alone. The time for the baseball card hobby to start failing is when the game of baseball itself becomes so unpopular or irrelevant that future generations of kids no longer follow, play or have any real interest in baseball or baseball games at all. But being that human males are by nature competitive and active in many sports, including and especially baseball, I don't see that big T206 hobby fall off happening anytime soon.