Steve Carlton Rookie worth so little

[jchcollins]

You can basically blame it on the rule that baseball greatness does not always equal baseball card greatness.

Vintage pitchers are at a disadvantage to start with in terms of card popularity, because the hitters are always so much more popular. Add to that the strange and unspoken rule since about the year 2000 that people don't want to celebrate pitchers so much for preventing runs and winning ballgames, but only for the sexy things like striking out a lot of batters and accumulating a record number of no-hitters. (Remember that even for Nolan Ryan, the number of no-hitters he threw in comparison to the total rest of his career represents a scant fraction of his innings on a major league mound...) The result is that the Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax cards remained valuable, and a lot of other pitchers who were top tier HOF'ers in their day are largely forgotten about - at least besides their rookie cards. I think Carlton falls into that category. As others have pointed out, his unwillingness to cooperate with the media after about 1973 probably also has something to do with his image taking a beating, and then he was the classic example of a pitcher in his 40's who hung around too long after he had pretty much lost his stuff. Still, that is no excuse to me today for a kid who wasn't even alive in the 1970's or 80's being able to quote Nolan Ryan stats to you - yet they have never heard of Carlton and his '72 season, or can't tell you anything about Tom Seaver or Jim Palmer. Just doesn't add up. But I guess that is the way society has gone now.

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

You can basically blame it on the rule that baseball greatness does not always equal baseball card greatness.

Vintage pitchers are at a disadvantage to start with in terms of card popularity, because the hitters are always so much more popular. Add to that the strange and unspoken rule since about the year 2000 that people don't want to celebrate pitchers so much for preventing runs and winning ballgames, but only for the sexy things like striking out a lot of batters and accumulating a record number of no-hitters. (Remember that even for Nolan Ryan, the number of no-hitters he threw in comparison to the total rest of his career represents a scant fraction of his innings on a major league mound...) The result is that the Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax cards remained valuable, and a lot of other pitchers who were top tier HOF'ers in their day are largely forgotten about - at least besides their rookie cards. I think Carlton falls into that category. As others have pointed out, his unwillingness to cooperate with the media after about 1973 probably also has something to do with his image taking a beating, and then he was the classic example of a pitcher in his 40's who hung around too long after he had basically lost his stuff. Still, that is no excuse to me today for a kid who wasn't even alive in the 1970's or 80's being able to quote Nolan Ryan stats to you - yet they have never heard of Carlton and his '72 season, or can't tell you anything about Tom Seaver or Jim Palmer. Just doesn't add up. But I guess that is the way society has gone now.

As a kid in the early 90's I can tell you that I was obsessed with baseball stats and record books and knew all the stats, and I knew of Carlton, despite this being the early 90's and Nolan was dominating the headlines. His no-hitters and fight with Ventura were absolutely legendary. As someone who grew up in the 90's, my favorite players are by far Nolan Ryan, Bo Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Frank Thomas. No one else came close. I know that Carlton was great, but to me Nolan is legendary.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Rad_Hazard

As a kid in the early 90's I can tell you that I was obsessed with baseball stats and record books and knew all the stats, and I knew of Carlton, despite this being the early 90's and Nolan was dominating the headlines. His no-hitters and fight with Ventura were absolutely legendary. As someone who grew up in the 90's, my favorite players are by far Nolan Ryan, Bo Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Frank Thomas. No one else came close. I know that Carlton was great, but to me Nolan is legendary.

Don't get me wrong, Nolan was my favorite pitcher growing up too. His RC is one of my most prized possessions, having been a child of the 80's and 90's - and always will be. But look at it without the bias of your era. Carlton is only great, but Ryan is legendary? Sorry but that doesn't make any sense. Carlton won 4 Cy Young Awards, Ryan 0. He won 20 games 6x to Ryan's twice (Palmer did it 8 times). Who helped their team win ballgames to a greater extent in their prime? It's not even a contest.

[GasHouseGang]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Don't get me wrong, Nolan was my favorite pitcher growing up too. His RC is one of my most prized possessions, having been a child of the 80's and 90's - and always will be. But look at it without the bias of your era. Carlton is only great, but Ryan is legendary? Sorry but that doesn't make any sense. Carlton won 4 Cy Young Awards, Ryan 0. He won 20 games 6x to Ryan's twice (Palmer did it 8 times). Who helped their team win ballgames to a greater extent in their prime? It's not even a contest.

When I was a new baseball card collector, I had a friend who told me I shouldn't waste my time collecting Nolan Ryan cards because he would never be considered a great pitcher or make "The Hall" because all he did was get a lot of strikeouts. He had never been a 20 game winner, and would be considered a common by the time he retired. I stupidly listened to him.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

When I was a new baseball card collector, I had a friend who told me I shouldn't waste my time collecting Nolan Ryan cards because he would never be considered a great pitcher or make "The Hall" because all he did was get a lot of strikeouts. He had never been a 20 game winner, and would be considered a common by the time he retired. I stupidly listened to him.

Damn, that's some bad advice.

There are 748 1968 Ryan/Koosman PSA 8 Rookies. They sell for $6K or so.

There are 1,136 1965 Ackley/Carlton PSA Rookies. They sell of ~$750.

That's a big premium.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

When I was a new baseball card collector, I had a friend who told me I shouldn't waste my time collecting Nolan Ryan cards because he would never be considered a great pitcher or make "The Hall" because all he did was get a lot of strikeouts. He had never been a 20 game winner, and would be considered a common by the time he retired. I stupidly listened to him.

I started collecting in 1986, buying the Topps packs at the grocery store. At the time, Ryan was of course a known commodity and a star player, but I would not have considered him a superstar, or among the very elite pitchers of the game. The speed was of course impressive, but he was inconsistent. He might pitch a one-hit shutout one night, and then give up 6 runs and lose in his next start. All that started to change for Nolan along about 1988-89, when he went to the Texas Rangers and everyone suddenly realized the precipice of all the records he was on the verge of passing - 5,000K's, 300 wins, and then of course by the time he unexpectedly added two more no-hitters for the Rangers, he was a God. His '68 Topps RC - which had been perhaps a $250 card in nice shape in 1988 - was suddenly worth well over a grand in 1992.

My point is not that Ryan is not a fantastic or even legendary pitcher, so much as it is just to point out that he's more noteworthy for how freakishly unique he is. The strikeout and no-hitter records will not ever be seriously approached, let alone equaled again. But remember at the end of the day those things alone don't win ballgames or lift teams. Ryan to me would make a super interesting study of how he was regarded over time. He may have been legendary in the 1990's on - but for the prime of his career in the 70's and early 80's you could generally make the argument that he wasn't even consistently among the top 3-4 pitchers in baseball.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I started collecting in 1986, buying the Topps packs at the grocery store. At the time, Ryan was of course a known commodity and a star player, but I would not have considered him a superstar, or among the very elite pitchers of the game. The speed was of course impressive, but he was inconsistent. He might pitch a one-hit shutout one night, and then give up 6 runs and lose in his next start. All that started to change for Nolan along about 1988-89, when he went to the Texas Rangers and everyone suddenly realized the precipice of all the records he was on the verge of passing - 5,000K's, 300 wins, and then of course by the time he unexpectedly added two more no-hitters for the Rangers, he was a God. His '68 Topps RC - which had been perhaps a $250 card in nice shape in 1988 - was suddenly worth well over a grand in 1992.

My point is not that Ryan is not a fantastic or even legendary pitcher, so much as it is just to point out that he's more noteworthy for how freakishly unique he is. The strikeout and no-hitter records will not ever be seriously approached, let alone equaled again. But remember at the end of the day those things alone don't win ballgames or lift teams. Ryan to me would make a super interesting study of how he was regarded over time. He may have been legendary in the 1990's on - but for the prime of his career in the 70's and early 80's you could generally make the argument that he wasn't even consistently among the top 3-4 pitchers in baseball.

I agree with everything you said (only difference is I started collecting in '87 not '86).

Ryan never won a Cy Young, but he did finish in the top 5 six times. He got is his first Cy Young votes when he was 25 and amazingly finished 5th when he was 42.

One thing I did not know is that he holds the all time record for fewest hits allowed per 9 innings at 6.6 He let up 3,923 hits in his career and walked 2,795 which is of course also a record.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I agree with everything you said (only difference is I started collecting in '87 not '86).

Ryan never won a Cy Young, but he did finish in the top 5 six times. He got is his first Cy Young votes when he was 25 and amazingly finished 5th when he was 42.

One thing I did not know is that he holds the all time record for fewest hits allowed per 9 innings at 6.6 He let up 3,923 hits in his career and walked 2,795 which is of course also a record.

Yeah, the fewest hits allowed stat is impressive until it dawns on you that doesn't speak to walks. If you look instead at total men allowed on base vs. men that got hits off of him, the figure quickly loses its luster.

[Rad_Hazard]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Don't get me wrong, Nolan was my favorite pitcher growing up too. His RC is one of my most prized possessions, having been a child of the 80's and 90's - and always will be. But look at it without the bias of your era. Carlton is only great, but Ryan is legendary? Sorry but that doesn't make any sense. Carlton won 4 Cy Young Awards, Ryan 0. He won 20 games 6x to Ryan's twice (Palmer did it 8 times). Who helped their team win ballgames to a greater extent in their prime? It's not even a contest.

That's just my view of it in the lens of who I grew up watching. Nolan definitely has legendary status much like Bo Jackson. They are folk heroes in my eyes.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Rad_Hazard

That's just my view of it in the lens of who I grew up watching. Nolan definitely has legendary status much like Bo Jackson. They are folk heroes in my eyes.

I get it.


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[BobC]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

You can basically blame it on the rule that baseball greatness does not always equal baseball card greatness.

Vintage pitchers are at a disadvantage to start with in terms of card popularity, because the hitters are always so much more popular. Add to that the strange and unspoken rule since about the year 2000 that people don't want to celebrate pitchers so much for preventing runs and winning ballgames, but only for the sexy things like striking out a lot of batters and accumulating a record number of no-hitters. (Remember that even for Nolan Ryan, the number of no-hitters he threw in comparison to the total rest of his career represents a scant fraction of his innings on a major league mound...) The result is that the Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax cards remained valuable, and a lot of other pitchers who were top tier HOF'ers in their day are largely forgotten about - at least besides their rookie cards. I think Carlton falls into that category. As others have pointed out, his unwillingness to cooperate with the media after about 1973 probably also has something to do with his image taking a beating, and then he was the classic example of a pitcher in his 40's who hung around too long after he had pretty much lost his stuff. Still, that is no excuse to me today for a kid who wasn't even alive in the 1970's or 80's being able to quote Nolan Ryan stats to you - yet they have never heard of Carlton and his '72 season, or can't tell you anything about Tom Seaver or Jim Palmer. Just doesn't add up. But I guess that is the way society has gone now.

Absolutely true about vintage pitchers being at a disadvantage. They are faced with an often extreme, modern bias, brought on a lot by modern statistics, and how the game is now played in regard to pitchers. Younger people only know starting pitchers typically going 5-6-7 innings in MLB games, and everyone worrying about pitch counts, strike outs, and the like. As statistician's and the like keep touting today, wins are not that important a factor in looking at and determining how good a pitcher really is in the modern game. But older, vintage pitchers were much more likely to be pitching in the games they started till the very end. As a result, their impact on the eventual outcome of those games was hugely increased over what it is for modern pitchers. But because the younger generation only truly know and see how the game is played today in regard to pitchers, they can't really get beyond thinking like that in terms of all MLB pitchers, regardless of when they pitched. They honestly don't know any better.

I still laugh out loud whenever I remember a comment I got on here once from a long since blocked/ignored member, claiming that Hyun-Jin Ryu is a so much better pitcher than Warren Spahn could have ever hoped to be, and that it wasn't even close how much better Ryu supposedly was. Last I looked, Ryu has now completed 9 seasons of MLB pitching, and has a 75-45 record, with a cumulative 3.27 ERA and a cumulative career WAR of 19.5, over 1003.1 innings pitched. Meanwhile, over his first nine seasons pitching in MLB, Spahn had a record of 145-98, with a cumulative ERA of approximately 2.93 to go along with a cumulative WAR of about 49.8, over 2149.2 innings pitched. And then over the last 14 years of his career, Spahn added another 218 wins, and 50.3 WAR. Ryu for the 2022 season had a 2-0 record, but with a WAR of -0.3. Something tells me to not put any money on Ryu and expect him to have anywhere near the success over the rest of his career like Spahn had. Ryu is going to be turning 36 this coming March, and I don't see him improving much more at this age.

And probably the most stunning difference between the two pitchers is that in the 174 games Ryu has started in career, he has only 4 complete games, and only 3 shutouts. Meanwhile, Spahn in his first nine seasons has 268 starts, of which 166 ended up being complete games, and 32 of those were shutouts. Oh, and Spahn also had 12 saves during his first nine seasons, to Ryu's only 1 save, so he helped his team as more than just a starter when called upon.

These modern statistician types keep saying how starting pitchers are not all that consequential when it comes to wins, which makes perfect sense for someone like Ryu who only completed about 2% of the games he ever started, and only averages about 5-6 innings pitched per start. Meanwhile, over his first nine seasons Spahn completed about 62% of the games he started, while averaging around 8 innings pitched per game. I think Warren had a little bit more to do with all those wins his teams had, and is probably worthy of a bit more credit for all his wins than someone like Ryu could ever hope for. Just saying!