Auction psychology

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by raulus

For better or worse, the market tends to take on a life of its own, and often the results aren't as explainable as we might like.

At this beginning of this year I sold a PSA 8 1975 Jose Cardenal for $150 and that wasn't even a top-3 sell price for that card in that time period. It was $100-$150 range in the year before, too.

A recent one sold for $61 (including shipping) and there's a $96 buy-it-now sitting around with no action on EBay right now.

I still have no idea why there was a run on the card. I bought 2 PSA 8's about 5 years earlier for $20 combined.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

At this beginning of this year I sold a PSA 8 1975 Jose Cardenal for $150 and that wasn't even a top-3 sell price for that card in that time period. It was $100-$150 range in the year before, too.

A recent one sold for $61 (including shipping) and there's a $96 buy-it-now sitting around with no action on EBay right now.

I still have no idea why there was a run on the card. I bought 2 PSA 8's about 5 years earlier for $20 combined.

While that kind of movement is big in percentage terms, in absolute dollar terms it's perhaps a little less exciting. It could be that the movement and action has more to do with the number of pieces on the market at the time and the number and aggressiveness of buyers that happened to be in the market for it. Or it could just be that a handful of buyers didn't mind paying an extra $50 or so to pick it up now, rather than wait for the next one to roll around at a lower price. Because hey, what's another $50 among friends when it means you get your cardboard today?!

Or it could also be one of your famous "fake sale" patterns, where someone was trying to establish a market at $150 or so, and then unload their real card at that price. Although for an extra $50 or $100 to create a fake higher market price, it seems like a lot of work to me.

[Leon]

I have paid more than rare cards are worth, in my mind, to have them not go to auction. If 2-3 people with deep pockets wanted them in an auction, I would have no chance. And it's unlikely I will see some of them very soon again, if ever..So, sometimes, a collector has to do what a collector does.

I don't blame the guy with the Black Sabbath poster. Most of us, who have been doing it a while, have done something like that...and might again!
.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have paid more than rare cards are worth, in my mind, to have them not go to auction. If 2-3 people with deep pockets wanted them in an auction, I would have no chance. And it's unlikely I will see some of them very soon again, if ever..So, sometimes, a collector has to do what a collector does.

I don't blame the guy with the Black Sabbath poster. Most of us, who have been doing it a while, have done something like that...and might again!
.

Good point, if you're going to overpay its better to overpay with another board member, you just never know what could happen if rare cards make it out of the clubhouse.

Plus it feels better selling a card to a fellow member/friend/colleague than some rando in the outside world because you can always invoke the "if you're going to sell it, you have to give me first shot at buying it back" clause.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have paid more than rare cards are worth, in my mind, to have them not go to auction. If 2-3 people with deep pockets wanted them in an auction, I would have no chance. And it's unlikely I will see some of them very soon again, if ever..So, sometimes, a collector has to do what a collector does.

I don't blame the guy with the Black Sabbath poster. Most of us, who have been doing it a while, have done something like that...and might again!
.

LOL

So true!

Once in a very great while it can actually work the other way though. Years back I'd heard of someone selling a card that was a white whale for me. Contacted them and sure enough, they had the card for sale and told me the price. They also told me they had already offered it to someone else, whom they were just waiting to hear back from, and was told they had first dibs. But if they passed on it, the card was mine at the same asking price. So of course, the other buyer didn't pass and lo and behold, I was SOL. But then several years later the very same card came up in an auction, and I miraculously won it for almost half of what it had been offered to me at before. So sometimes patience, and an auction, can work to your benefit.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have paid more than rare cards are worth, in my mind, to have them not go to auction. If 2-3 people with deep pockets wanted them in an auction, I would have no chance. And it's unlikely I will see some of them very soon again, if ever..So, sometimes, a collector has to do what a collector does.

I don't blame the guy with the Black Sabbath poster. Most of us, who have been doing it a while, have done something like that...and might again!
.

I have done this a few times. For truly rare items, it's a complete guess of what "overpaying" even is, and while I may hypothesize it 'should' go for $300, it might go for $3,000. Sometimes it's better to just pay $500 to buy it direct and skip the risk. Lose out on a deal maybe, but secure it and remove the risk

Other times I have paid 5x of what I think a card would go for at auction, because it is not available at auction and the seller isn't really looking to sell. For a card I can get elsewhere, I value based on the market because I don't want to unnecessarily throw money down the drain, but if it is a unique or nearly so item I want, I value it entirely based on its personal value to me.