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Auction psychology
CNBC’s Bob Pisani described his auction experience (bidding on 1970’s concert posters), with additional insight from a psychologist on why we do what we do during auctions
“Collectors will tell you that to be a successful long-term collector of anything, you must be disciplined. You must know what you are willing to pay for something, and not go over that price. You cannot be carried away by the emotion of an auction. You must be willing to walk away.” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/bob-...investing.html |
Words of wisdom to live by!
I can attest that while that's my goal, I sometimes fail, particularly when the item in question is high on my list of items I can't live without. But at the same time, I'm usually pretty good about controlling myself and letting items go. If for no other reason than eventually the price just gets so high that my resources are no longer sufficient. That and I'm not going to borrow and/or tap my retirement funds to get it. And 99.99% of my collection is not for sale, so selling something to cover the cost is also not going to get me there. Although for a lot of people, these may be possible strategies to expand our means. |
I tell others that if I wanted everything I wanted in my collection I could get it done in less than a month throwing money at everything and be done with it (outside of some very rare things).
Part of the chase is waiting for my price, which also leaves open opportunities to overspend a bit for stuff that doesn't come around too often. Given how many people spend years building a set/collection only to sell it and move onto something else, there's some respect due for the chase, itself. |
The problem with this philosophy is that others don't live by it, and most of the time you will lose to one of them. :cool::eek: And worse still, the giddy price will become the new baseline.
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Sometimes I am amazed that some idiot is willing to pay so much for an obscure old cardboard picture that they outbid my stupid bid. Then I have to do some soul searching.
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It’s always going to be a question of how comfortable you are with losing. Some of us don’t like losing, so we tend to throw caution to the wind to avoid that negative outcome, even if it turns out to be a Pyrrhic victory, with the cost of the item making a big dent in our resources. |
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I vote we kick them off the island. |
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When you are buying, every stupid bidder is involved and escalates the price beyond all reason. When you are selling, all of these bidders are distracted by some other shiny bauble and you suffer a crime against humanity yourself. |
I truly believe that for many AH bidders (especially in the last two years and on big ticket items), they have more money than God and don't care what items cost.
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There are no set rules in this game. If you applied a strict, disciplined approach to what you would pay for quality Ruths and high end Mantle cards in 2017 the satisfaction you would have gotten from not "overpaying" would not have lasted long as you watched prices skyrocket from those levels.
You also have to decide what you want more, a good deal or the item. Prices for rare items are tough to predict because you never know when two buyers will decide they don't want to wait ten years for another shot. Personally I have more regrets over the items I didn't buy because I thought the price was too high than over the ones where I overpaid. Example: every Jim Thorpe I didn't buy. |
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Just for fun, here's a couple of somewhat recent examples where I was the underbidder, and I'm not really regretting it: https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=103985 https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=103692 |
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The PSA pop reports show a total of 16 '54 Mays cards graded as 9s, with three of them having qualifiers, but none graded higher. Meanwhile, the pop report shows a total of 9 '62 Mays cards graded as 9s, with none having any qualifiers, but in this case there is 1 single higher graded '62 Mays card graded 10. Though there are actually fewer '62 Topps Mays cards graded 9, or higher, I can't see enough of a difference in the numbers to justify and explain the big difference in those final auction prices being based on these pop reports alone. |
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If you look historically at those two cards in PSA 6, 7, 8, the 1962T consistently sells for a lot more than the 1954T in the same grade. And often the difference is 2x or 3x. Also, we’ve seen a few of the 1954T in PSA 9 come onto the market over the last 5 years. I think this might be the only 1962T in PSA 9 in that span. So there was probably some pent-up demand for the 62T. |
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As I said, the pop reports don't seem to offer a reasonable explanation for such a price difference at all. What does possibly help explain it is if the high grade '62s have been hoarded in the recent past and not showing up for sale, as you mentioned. In which case, that difference could be due to two collectors just waiting a long time to finally find a high grade '62 Mays card for sale, and both went after it. Which actually just reinforces my original point that I don't think it was primarily the pop reports alone that explain the differences in the prices paid for those two different Mays cards. |
Put a bunch of extra zeroes before the decimal place and dare anyone to outbid you. :D
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For example, at PSA 8, the 1954 Mays pretty routinely sold for about $3k-$4k. Same grade for 1962 was around $3.5k to $5.5k. Still a premium, but probably closer to 20-30%. I'm not entirely sure that you can necessarily explain it just based on pop counts and aesthetics. For better or worse, the market tends to take on a life of its own, and often the results aren't as explainable as we might like. I guess if we were really adventurous, we could go out and take short positions on the 62, and long positions on the 54 so as to arbitrage and drive the pricing to a relative spot where we think makes more sense. But in the process, we might lose our shirts! |
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All you can do is the best you can to stay fixed on your collection preferences and you Mr budget and still plan to also not be focused by other items sometimes Just enjoy the hunt and enjoy your collection (and share pictures of New pickups in our monthly pickups thread. Lol |
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A recent one sold for $61 (including shipping) and there's a $96 buy-it-now sitting around with no action on EBay right now. I still have no idea why there was a run on the card. I bought 2 PSA 8's about 5 years earlier for $20 combined. |
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Or it could also be one of your famous "fake sale" patterns, where someone was trying to establish a market at $150 or so, and then unload their real card at that price. Although for an extra $50 or $100 to create a fake higher market price, it seems like a lot of work to me. |
I have paid more than rare cards are worth, in my mind, to have them not go to auction. If 2-3 people with deep pockets wanted them in an auction, I would have no chance. And it's unlikely I will see some of them very soon again, if ever..So, sometimes, a collector has to do what a collector does.
I don't blame the guy with the Black Sabbath poster. Most of us, who have been doing it a while, have done something like that...and might again! . |
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Plus it feels better selling a card to a fellow member/friend/colleague than some rando in the outside world because you can always invoke the "if you're going to sell it, you have to give me first shot at buying it back" clause. |
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That's okay, I'll be happy with the '54 and '62 Mays cards I already have. And sounds like you're agreeing with me, it is not the pop reports causing what seems to be a bit of a pricing anomaly for these two cards. We'll probably never know what could have caused such a big price differential between those two PSA 9 Mays cards in that last REA auction then? |
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So true! Once in a very great while it can actually work the other way though. Years back I'd heard of someone selling a card that was a white whale for me. Contacted them and sure enough, they had the card for sale and told me the price. They also told me they had already offered it to someone else, whom they were just waiting to hear back from, and was told they had first dibs. But if they passed on it, the card was mine at the same asking price. So of course, the other buyer didn't pass and lo and behold, I was SOL. But then several years later the very same card came up in an auction, and I miraculously won it for almost half of what it had been offered to me at before. So sometimes patience, and an auction, can work to your benefit. |
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But the 1962T selling for 25% more than the 1954T seems to follow the historical relationship between these two cards pretty closely. Whether the bidders had that in mind in the heat of the action is unlikely. But that’s definitely where the chips fell in the end. The invisible hand at work! |
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But then these are the kinds of conundrums that help to make, and keep, this hobby interesting to many of us. Good stuff! |
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Other times I have paid 5x of what I think a card would go for at auction, because it is not available at auction and the seller isn't really looking to sell. For a card I can get elsewhere, I value based on the market because I don't want to unnecessarily throw money down the drain, but if it is a unique or nearly so item I want, I value it entirely based on its personal value to me. |
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I don't normally follow current card prices of individual players, like Mays, and am just surprised that a similarly graded '62 Topps card of his would go for so much more than his '54 Topps card. Defies logic to me. Oh well, live and learn. |
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