Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny630
Higher Grade Well Centered Big Name Guys. Ruth Cobb Jackie Mantle and Mays non oddball are never coming back down. It’s gone. You either have them and bought at lower levels or you want them and now you’re gonna have to kick it out and kick it out big. We have multiple major auctions by various auction houses throughout the year with record-breaking sales as commonplace.
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I think the real question is where pricing will end up on these big names. Certainly comparing March 2020 pricing to pandemic pricing, on some pieces they were up 500% (or more) at the height in 2021, but have settled back down a bit. Depending on the precise piece, for auctions closing in the last month, you're looking at maybe being up 200% or 300% from March 2020. So in some cases, as much as 50% off the highs from 2021.
The fact that it's come down by that much in some cases suggests to me that further declines are possible. Not necessarily probable, but certainly possible.
The real question in my mind is where they settle. Do they settle at 50% above March 2020? 100%? 200%? 250%?
I do think that there's such a recency bias among humans with prices going up up up that we forget that prices can go down, and down by a lot. They've certainly gone down before, including in the last year. People in 2007 who insisted that housing only goes up ended up overpaying, and not by a little.
If the economy takes a dive, especially if it gets scary, and people start having to sell assets to cover their maturing debts, then prices could easily come down to a lot closer to their pre-pandemic levels. I still suspect they will be north of March 2020, but it's just a question of how far north.
09-08-2022, 09:29 AM
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