PreWar card prices 2000-2014 and 2015-2022
 

I was talking to a newest collector yesterday about prewar. He started collecting about 5 years ago. He did not believe me that between 2000-2014, cards prices in general stayed about the same. Sure, some cards would increase, but not to the levels of what we are seeing today. I called it a period of "card stagnant".

Its funny how no new collectors remember this period. Maybe 2023-2035 will revert back to that? ;)

Hope springs eternal!

Those of us who think the current prices are absatively ludicrous are also predicting outright declines. But that could just be wishful thinking...

Higher Grade Well Centered Big Name Guys. Ruth Cobb Jackie Mantle and Mays non oddball are never coming back down. It’s gone. You either have them and bought at lower levels or you want them and now you’re gonna have to kick it out and kick it out big. We have multiple major auctions by various auction houses throughout the year with record-breaking sales as commonplace.

I can certainly speak to this topic. I collected all of my vintage from 2004-2014. I bought everything during this time as well as selling everything during this time. I would have to agree that virtually stagnant prices were the norm.

Just having gotten back into the vintage card game at the beginning of 2021 and seeing the same cards that I sold back in 2014 selling for multiple times what I got for them, timing could not have been any worse for me as I rebought everything throughout 2021, with the greatest percentage coming during the first half of the year and decreasing as the year went along. I couldn’t have rebought everything at the absolute peak of the market any more if I tried.

Fast forward to today and the vast majority of current card values are roughly half of what I paid last year. Things have really worked out great for me, huh?

Sounds like most of my investments, Phil, I have the Midas touch in reverse!

I think the real question is where pricing will end up on these big names. Certainly comparing March 2020 pricing to pandemic pricing, on some pieces they were up 500% (or more) at the height in 2021, but have settled back down a bit. Depending on the precise piece, for auctions closing in the last month, you're looking at maybe being up 200% or 300% from March 2020. So in some cases, as much as 50% off the highs from 2021.

The fact that it's come down by that much in some cases suggests to me that further declines are possible. Not necessarily probable, but certainly possible.

The real question in my mind is where they settle. Do they settle at 50% above March 2020? 100%? 200%? 250%?

I do think that there's such a recency bias among humans with prices going up up up that we forget that prices can go down, and down by a lot. They've certainly gone down before, including in the last year. People in 2007 who insisted that housing only goes up ended up overpaying, and not by a little.

If the economy takes a dive, especially if it gets scary, and people start having to sell assets to cover their maturing debts, then prices could easily come down to a lot closer to their pre-pandemic levels. I still suspect they will be north of March 2020, but it's just a question of how far north.

Vintage cards took off like a rocket starting February 2021, right after the 1952 Topps PSA 9 purchase for $5M+ and Hank Aaron's death, both in January 2021. There was a lot of buzz in and about the card collecting industry at that time. Covid had been around for 1 year by then, and people realized it wasn't going to be the end of times, so didn't need to hoard their cash. Ongoing lockdown put more cash in people's pockets from government stimulus and savings from commuting, leaving more for discretionary spending. The lockdown also put more time on people's hands, so had more opportunity to reconnect with the hobby. Pre-February you could eBay best offer sellers on any vintage HOFer for a 15-25% discount. Now, you really need to be the highest bidder in an auction or take a chance on an upgraded card. Some cards pre-Feb 2021 included: 52 Topps Mick in PSA 1 for $15K. 48 Leaf Ruth in SGC A for $500. 53 Topps Mick in PSA 1 for $750. 53 Topps Mays in PSA 2 for $450. 52 Topps Mays in PSA 1 for $450 and $1600 in PSA 2. 09 T206 Cobb Red in PSA A for $1500. 51 Bowman Mays in PSA 1 for $1500. Most of these cards and others have doubled, tripled or better in past year and a half. It's great to see these player's amazing cards get their due!

Completely agree with your take. Even though I collect raw, I was able at the end of 2020 to make a big trade to start, then put together during the first 6 months of 2021 an entire 53 Bowman color set, with the b/w set also. I could not do that now.

The question for me is where do prices go from February/March 2021, that was my starting point at zero. As of today, about 85% of my cards are down, many approaching 50% down. A handful are at break even and maybe 10% up, not anywhere near the percentage of the downs though.

I should add that I was buying primarily GOAT rookie cards from all four major team sports plus soccer and Ali boxing. About 80% of my money went into vintage (pre-1980) and the rest modern through 2019.

I have been collecting on and off since the early 1980's. I watched prices skyrocket (relative term) and the hobby get silly into the early 1990s, when my brother and I sold everything and got out. I found Ebay in 2000 and started collecting again -- the big difference this time around was that people had cards authenticated and graded. I sold everything in late 2003 to pay student loans. I did not get back into the hobby again until 2014. Since that time, I have been a consistent and steady buyer of rare and very old (pre WWI) blue chip cards and sets. Why?....

Over the past 40+/- years, every time I got back into the hobby, the "greats" were always worth more, often substantially more, than what they were worth when I exited the hobby last time. For example, my favorite card from my first collection was my 1955 Clemente. This Ex 55 Clemente in 1990 was like $250. That same card in 2003 was like $500. That same card in 2014 (sitting in say a PSA 5 flip) was around $1,000 (today its like $4,000). In other words, the value of an Ex 1955 Clemente seemed to at least double every 10 years, and in some cases perform better than that. And this is not just Clemente. All the greats, especially rookies from 1948+ (modern to me) and the oldies/pre WWII (vintage to me), were always worth more each time I got back into the hobby.

Now I love the real old stuff. So when I got back into the hobby in 2014 and then took a real deep dive in 2016, I focused on the old and rare blue chips,- My theory was that my Clemente example above also rang true for Cobb, Ruth, Wagner, Jackson, T206s, etc. And I was correct.

Punch line -- "Good Cards" are a very safe and proven investment over time; at least over the last 40+/- years. There are peaks and valleys. But over the long run, if you are patient, you buy good stuff, and you can hold onto your cardboard, you will make a profit, and often a very solid profit in baseball cards.

I cannot speak to modern (1980-today), and certainly do not believe in the long term prospects of the "shiny stuff". Nor can I speak to any other sport card besides baseball cards. And there are exceptions in the old and rare baseball card world where values do go down overtime and do not return (yet), like super rare/niche stuff that may catch fire when a few people set out to collect it (e.g., T208, T206 freaks, T213-3 overprints, etc). But on whole, the old, rare, and blue chip baseball stuff will go up over time.

Cards are a lot like land (unimproved real property). They dont generate income and may actually cost you some each year. But if you buy the right cards, like buying the right land, you will make money down the line.

I expect we will see some pull back on card values; although, I think there is real chance that Cobb, Ruth, Wagner etc only keep going up because there is real scarcity there and they are not making any more of it. But if that pull back happens, a card in 2023 will be worth more than it was in 2015 (even if its worth less than it was in 2021), and will be worth more in 2030 than it is 2023.

Buy good stuff and hold it. Be long in the cardboard you buy; don't day (or year) trade in cards.

Very Well Said !