1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[molenick]

For what it's worth, here are the latest sales from VCP for an Uncle Jacks Ruth. Some are quite old but a PSA 2 sold for nearly $59K a few months ago.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by molenick

For what it's worth, here are the latest sales from VCP for an Uncle Jacks Ruth. Some are quite old but a PSA 2 sold for nearly $59K a few months ago.

Yeah based on that sale the price seemed right to me.

[molenick]

Sorry....I posted the Ruth sale in the wrong thread...it was meant for the "Insane Babe Ruth Card" thread.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I hope this isn’t hijacking the thread, but I am curious where folks think the 52T Mantle will be at price wise in the next 5-10 years. I personally think that given the significant price increases across the board in the last few years that we may be in a few years of price stabilization. Hard to envision much of a price decrease in the next 5-10 years. However, I do share the concerns mentioned by some that current teenagers may not hold the card in the same esteem that many in the 30-70 year olds do. I do think it would be fun to come back to this thread over the next few years and see how close our predictions are.

Adam

I'm going to go a bit contrarian and suggest that there's likely to be a drop in prices, at least overall. For blue chip pieces like 52T Mantle, particularly in high grades, maybe not so much. But overall, I expect prices will come down a bit.

A big part of my thinking is that prices have run up so much over the last 2 years, give or take. Depending on which basket of cards you look at, and how you do your math, the increases are pretty easily 200%-500%, and sometimes more.

When I think about the underlying factors that have contributed to the jumps in pricing, the factors that mostly come to mind are:
1) People coming back into the hobby because they had extra time on their hands during the pandemic.
2) Some pumpers jumping into the action because that's what they do.
3) Lots of people with a lot of extra cash on hand.
4) Every asset class, and I do mean every asset has been on a crazy run over the last 2 years. Okay, maybe there's a couple that missed out. But almost every asset class.

Certainly it will be interesting to see whether #1 has any staying power. Certainly #2 won't be around for long, and arguably a lot them are already gone.

I think for #3 and #4, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the recent runups in asset prices more generally start to unwind. Certainly most assets have come off of their highs, even including housing. But there's still a lot of froth in a lot of markets. If we hit a soft patch in the economy, or especially a major recession, and people who are crazy leveraged end up having to repay their debts, then there will be a lot more asset sales, and prices will come down. Once they start coming down, that process can accelerate, and really start to pick up steam. The number of people who end up having $100k+ to drop on a luxury like sports cards and memorabilia will decline in a hurry.

When you start looking around at the broader market, including basketball cards, soccer cards, game-used memorabilia, pokemon cards, football cards, just to name a few, there is a lot out there, and if you started counting it all up, there are a lot of pieces that are 6 figures or more. A lot.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting a collapse in the market, where we'll go back to the good old days of trading 52T Mantles for our lunch money, your mortgage payment will be $30 a month, and candy bars will be 5 cents. But I wouldn't be surprised to see baseball card prices broadly fall by 20%-50% if the economy goes badly enough. And even if the economy gets by without much trouble, then prices could still easily pull back 10%-20%.

Bottom line for me is that there's just so many pieces trading for such high prices, there's really only one way to go, and it's not up.

[Lorewalker]

This just in from Heritage

We are excited to offer five examples of 1952 Topps, two of 1951 Bowman, and two of 1952 Berk Ross. The 1952 Topps Mantle card was released in short supply and survives in numbers that nearly equate to pre-war issues, and has arguably become the most iconic card of the post-war period.

I am not shocked there are 5 1952 Topps coming I am shocked they did not get 14 of them. Anyway the part that confused me was the part in bold. I have no idea what the graded population is for the 52 Topps but I have always thought of it as a card that is abundant. And the graded examples do not reflect the over all population of them. I know of several collectors whose examples are still ungraded.

[Republicaninmass]

In no other time in oir hobby has an auction house accepted more than 1 or not a max of 2 of the same cards in the same auction even remotely near each other in grade. Its become a game of hot potato. Very few are holding these assets even though the ability for increased prices is so high. Aside from Signed ones, I think we're seen the top with the 9.5 sgc Rosen. In typical Rosen Fashion!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

This just in from Heritage

We are excited to offer five examples of 1952 Topps, two of 1951 Bowman, and two of 1952 Berk Ross. The 1952 Topps Mantle card was released in short supply and survives in numbers that nearly equate to pre-war issues, and has arguably become the most iconic card of the post-war period.

I am not shocked there are 5 1952 Topps coming I am shocked they did not get 14 of them. Anyway the part that confused me was the part in bold. I have no idea what the graded population is for the 52 Topps but I have always thought of it as a card that is abundant. And the graded examples do not reflect the over all population of them. I know of several collectors whose examples are still ungraded.

PSA has 1,849 graded copies alone. It is available in large supply. The 52 Topps high's are tough, only in comparison to other Topps series. Dozens or Hundreds are for sale every year, year in and year out.

They've graded 2,510 of the 51 Bowman high Mantle's for comparison, 4,895 of the 1953 Topps card from the very common first series. Neither as popular as the 52 of course, but expensive cards that tend to get graded at a high rate.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by G1911

PSA has 1,849 graded copies alone. It is available in large supply. The 52 Topps high's are tough, only in comparison to other Topps series. Dozens or Hundreds are for sale every year, year in and year out.

They've graded 2,510 of the 51 Bowman high Mantle's for comparison, 4,895 of the 1953 Topps card from the very common first series. Neither as popular as the 52 of course, but expensive cards that tend to get graded at a high rate.

Demand absolutely exceeds supply but nothing limited about their availability. Gee I hope that fact is not going to upset any of the pumpers. I would hate to ruin a Sunday, especially one that falls on a holiday weekend.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Demand absolutely exceeds supply but nothing limited about their availability. Gee I hope that fact is not going to upset any of the pumpers. I would hate to ruin a Sunday, especially one that falls on a holiday weekend.

Another gem from our resident economist.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I am not shocked there are 5 1952 Topps coming I am shocked they did not get 14 of them.

You guys are acting like Matty "got unhinged" from just a mention of some facts, but I think it's the tone that bothered him. I've seen quotes like this above (another was something like expressing "that second year double print" as a pejorative), and they probably come off like someone taking a shot at the desirability of his favorite card.

Not saying that it merits an emotional reaction. Just that there's a little more to it than simply someone getting upset from unfavorable facts.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

You guys are acting like Matty "got unhinged" from just a mention of some facts, but I think it's the tone that bothered him. I've seen quotes like this above (another was something like expressing "that second year double print" as a pejorative), and they probably come off like someone taking a shot at the desirability of his favorite card.

Not saying that it merits an emotional reaction. Just that there's a little more to it than simply someone getting upset from unfavorable facts.

Exactly

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

You guys are acting like Matty "got unhinged" from just a mention of some facts, but I think it's the tone that bothered him. I've seen quotes like this above (another was something like expressing "that second year double print" as a pejorative), and they probably come off like someone taking a shot at the desirability of his favorite card.

Not saying that it merits an emotional reaction. Just that there's a little more to it than simply someone getting upset from unfavorable facts.

Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.

And please recall that any factual comments I made that upset people were written having already said or shortly thereafter stated the 52 Mantle is an awesome card and one that I too own.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I have no idea what the graded population is for the 52 Topps but I have always thought of it as a card that is abundant. And the graded examples do not reflect the over all population of them. I know of several collectors whose examples are still ungraded.

I've had two graded for consignors this year so clearly there are plenty of ungraded examples out there!

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.

And please recall that any factual comments I made that upset people were written having already said or shortly thereafter stated the 52 Mantle is an awesome card and one that I too own.

As mentioned, it doesn't merit a reaction. And I never said that you meant to get a rise. Just that the occasional perceived pejorative tone might get one regardless from someone as emotional as Matty. Surely you can see how a "surprised there aren't fourteen of them instead of five" quip comes off as having some disdain, rather than just a basic mention of facts. That's not me reaching or too being a bit sensitive; I don't mind what anyone says about the Mantle. It's just noticing something that's fairly obvious

[G1911]

The discussion of the volume up for sale (do we need to pretend there aren’t a ton up for sale to smooth peoples feelings?) occurred days after the freak out. Nobody did anything more than not participate in the pump and observe things that are demonstrably true (the toning, the back centering, it’s not a rookie, it is a DP, it has a lot of copies out there). He accused people of “bile” and doing things that no reading can possibly produce, like attacking Mickey Mantle (I’m happy to stand correct if anyone can find this post). Then he flipped out when asked to ID these posts he exaggerated to attack.

I do not see any rule or reasonable reason that people may not or should not post factually correct statements about a card that does not serve the interest of pumping and juicing it. People’s emotional response to not everything in the world adopting their exact perspective, while hardly even being negative about the 52 Mantle at all, only the grade of this particular one in comparison to SGC’s public and published standards, is on them.

Disclaimer again: Mickey Mantle is great. The 1952 Topps set is great. The 1952 Topps Mickey is a cool image and a great card

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

As mentioned, it doesn't merit a reaction. And I never said that you meant to get a rise. Just that the occasional perceived pejorative tone might get one regardless from someone as emotional as Matty. Surely you can see how a "surprised there aren't fourteen of them instead of five" quip comes off as having some disdain, rather than just a basic mention of facts. That's not me reaching or too being a bit sensitive; I don't mind what anyone says about the Mantle. It's just noticing something that's fairly obvious

I cannot control how you or anyone else feels or reacts/responds to things I might post here. I know what my intent was. Clearly you do not want to accept that so you are essentially telling me that I am a liar, which is fine. If someone wants to get emotional over a post, which is a bit irrational, then so be it. I guess that is their...choice but they should be prepared then for whatever comes next.

And to I never even thought my "quip" would have been interpreted any other way than the way it was intended. I honestly felt that we would see an onslaught of listings on eBay and elsewhere of people trying to cash in on the 52 Mantle fervor. It has taken place with the T206 Wagner, signed 33 Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs (some of which may have been signed in the last 2 years) and there are others.

As an aside, maybe the time has come where we should all consider having complete disclaimers at the end of actual posts on "controversial" topics. Might cool some tempers.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I cannot control how you or anyone else feels or reacts/responds to things I might post here. I know what my intent was. Clearly you do not want to accept that so you are essentially telling me that I am a liar, which is fine. If someone wants to get emotional over a post, which is a bit irrational, then so be it. I guess that is their...choice but they should be prepared then for whatever comes next.

And to I never even thought my "quip" would have been interpreted any other way than the way it was intended. I honestly felt that we would see an onslaught of listings on eBay and elsewhere of people trying to cash in on the 52 Mantle fervor. It has taken place with the T206 Wagner, signed 33 Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs (some of which may have been signed in the last 2 years) and there are others.

As an aside, maybe the time has come where we should all consider having complete disclaimers at the end of actual posts on "controversial" topics. Might cool some tempers.

These posts have accused people of becoming unhinged, called others absurd, and accused other people of pumping a card. Tone the rhetoric down and there would probably be less of an issue. Or don’t tone it down because that is your right but then understand why some people think those posts are a bit much.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Carter08

These posts have accused people of becoming unhinged, called others absurd, and accused other people of pumping a card. Tone the rhetoric down and there would probably be less of an issue. Or don’t tone it down because that is your right but then understand why some people think those posts are a bit much.

You can go back and verify the sequence of posts and who wrote what. It would be a good idea because you might want to check the accuracy of your current position.

Nobody here accused anyone of coming unhinged until...someone did come unhinged. Until then it was a discussion based on facts about the card that a certain person took offense to. I am perplexed how he could even take it personally let alone that personal.

Anyway, I will assume you are one of the guys who contacted Leon to complain so I am curious why you want to try to mix it up with me.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

You can go back and verify the sequence of posts and who wrote what. It would be a good idea because you might want to check the accuracy of your current position.

Nobody here accused anyone of coming unhinged until...someone did come unhinged. Until then it was a discussion based on facts about the card that a certain person took offense to. I am perplexed how he could even take it personally let alone that personal.

Anyway, I will assume you are one of the guys who contacted Leon to complain so I am curious why you want to try to mix it up with me.

I did not complain for the record.

[Johnny630]

I wonder if the recent current AH sales of 52 Mantles SGC and PSA 1-4 grade will continuing have staying power at this high numbers.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I wonder if the recent current AH sales of 52 Mantles SGC and PSA 1-4 grade will continuing have staying power at this high numbers.

I would think short term we might see an uptick in prices on those. All I know is that I had to have a custom logo Tshirt made today and the guy who was being helped when I got there had the Fogel PSA 10 52 Mantle placed on a black Tshirt.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I would think short term we might see an uptick in prices on those. All I know is that I had to have a custom logo Tshirt made today and the guy who was being helped when I got there had the Fogel PSA 10 52 Mantle placed on a black Tshirt.

Did you accuse him of "pumping"? Asking for a friend...

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Did you accuse him of "pumping"? Asking for a friend...

Did you have to cancel plans with your friends last night 2 hours prior or were you able to access your money in time?

[Forever Young]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Demand absolutely exceeds supply but nothing limited about their availability. Gee I hope that fact is not going to upset any of the pumpers. I would hate to ruin a Sunday, especially one that falls on a holiday weekend.

“ Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.”


“Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rose out of anyone”


Oh of course not… you seem very sincere.

By the way… I’m totally unhinged right now.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

“ Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.”


“Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rose out of anyone”


Oh of course not… you seem very sincere.

By the way… I’m totally unhinged right now.

Please stay hinged. I am all out of glue.
.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

“ Well you too might be a tad sensitive because your interpretation is reaching. We all know that once something sells for big money, examples flood to the market. THAT is what was meant. Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rise out of anyone.”


“Not some hidden attempt to insult or get a rose out of anyone”


Oh of course not… you seem very sincere.

By the way… I’m totally unhinged right now.

Well ya might not be unhinged but even you should ask why you are bothering. you have taken things out of context so there is nothing to address here.

[Forever Young]

Originally Posted by Leon

Please stay hinged. I am all out of glue.
.

😂

“Well ya might not be unhinged but even you should ask why you are bothering.”

All I wanted to do was associate myself to this 9.5 mantle in some way shape or form to be relevant. I was bored so I logged in once, saw all your posts and noticed you hovering over the thread online(By gosh what were the chances?) I bothered for a min and made a comment. I think that sums it up.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

😂

“Well ya might not be unhinged but even you should ask why you are bothering.”

All I wanted to do was associate myself to this 9.5 mantle in some way shape or form to be relevant. I was bored so I logged in once, saw all your posts and noticed you hovering over the thread online(By gosh what were the chances?) I bothered for a min and made a comment. I think that sums it up.

On behalf of everyone on the board, thanks for sharing. And thanks for noticing me out of everyone else who has posted on this one.

[Forever Young]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

On behalf of everyone on the board, thanks for sharing. And thanks for noticing me out of everyone else who has posted on this one.

There is that sincerity again. Sorry if I upset you.

YOU are very welcome. However, by reading through the thread … I don’t think many would like you speaking on behalf of them. I could have interpreted your 20 or so posts the wrong way though. I didn’t try to notice you I promise. You were just always there. Way to make yourself known! �� Persistence can be a very good quality. Quantity over quality was def the way to go to achieve your goal.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

There is that sincerity again. Sorry if I upset you.

YOU are very welcome. However, by reading through the thread … I don’t think many would like you speaking on behalf of them. I could have interpreted your 20 or so posts the wrong way though. I didn’t try to notice you I promise. You were just always there. Way to make yourself known! �� Persistence can be a very good quality. Quantity over quality was def the way to go to achieve your goal.

You are a bit late to the party and everyone has moved on but you, it seems. Again I am flattered by the attention but I am sure we both have better things to do and I am sure that Leon would appreciate it too. You can PM me if you would like.

[ruth-gehrig]

Some of you may remember this from 1998...Mr Mint gave away a 1952 Mantle at the National. Cannot see very clearly the corners of course but the centering doesnt look horrible. Maybe someone will see this and recognize the example.

[Eric72]

"Mr. Mint" salutes you, '72 Topps Billy Martin style.

[Gary Dunaier]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

30 years from now, the 9.5 Mantle might sell for $40M.

It very well may. But in 2052, $40,000,000 won't be as impressive a sum as it is today, due to inflation.

I remember there was a special lottery in New York State in 1976. I don't know the details, but the grand prize was $1,000 a week for life. The person who won was 19 at the time and is presumably still alive today, still receiving weekly $1,000 payments. But if I've calculated correctly, that $1,000 in 2022 dollars is the equivalent of $192 in 1976 dollars... the point I'm trying to make is that $1,000 is not as impressive a sum today as it was 46 years ago.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I've had two graded for consignors this year so clearly there are plenty of ungraded examples out there!

WE all agree that the population is not totally known and we know many who have ungraded cards that over time will add to the supply.

However with the demand for them so high I do not think the supply can every truly catch up thus keeping the prices high.

With it being a truly iconic card and treated that why by everyone it will always be in demand and at all price points (just a matter of what we can afford or cannot afford)

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Eric72

"Mr. Mint" salutes you, '72 Topps Billy Martin style.

The guy never missed an opportunity to be an A-hole.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

The guy never missed an opportunity to be an A-hole.

Seem to remember seeing/hearing a story from somewhere about Rosen having a meltdown at the first National ever held at Cleveland's IX Center. It was patented Rosen behavior to always try to have the very first table/booth inside the entrance door at every show he set up at so he had the first crack at buying things from anyone walking in with something to potentially sell. I remember him literally calling out to all people walking in to the National, and haranguing them to come right over to see him, just like a carnival barker trying to get people to buy a ticket to the side show. At the IX Center though, I heard Rosen wasn't aware in advance of that year's National that there were actually two show entrances, at opposite ends of the building. So he was supposedly pissed that whatever he had to pay/do to get that first booth/table inside the entrance was really only going to get him a first shot at about half the people attending, and not all of them like he wanted. I believe as a result he never came back and set up at another National after that, at least not in Cleveland. Feel free to correct me for any inaccuracies.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by BobC

Seem to remember seeing/hearing a story from somewhere about Rosen having a meltdown at the first National ever held at Cleveland's IX Center. It was patented Rosen behavior to always try to have the very first table/booth inside the entrance door at every show he set up at so he had the first crack at buying things from anyone walking in with something to potentially sell. I remember him literally calling out to all people walking in to the National, and haranguing them to come right over to see him, just like a carnival barker trying to get people to buy a ticket to the side show. At the IX Center though, I heard Rosen wasn't aware in advance of that year's National that there were actually two show entrances, at opposite ends of the building. So he was supposedly pissed that whatever he had to pay/do to get that first booth/table inside the entrance was really only going to get him a first shot at about half the people attending, and not all of them like he wanted. I believe as a result he never came back and set up at another National after that, at least not in Cleveland. Feel free to correct me for any inaccuracies.

Can't vouch for the IX Center story, but sounds just like him. For years, at every major show in the Northeast, you had to get past the Rosen gauntlet at the entrance. At one of my first shows ever, in 1991, I walked over to him with that year's HOF pin and charm, which at that time were hot commodities, and put them on the table. When he saw what they were, he pushed them back across the table to me, and wheeled his chair 180 degrees away. He never looked at me the whole time and never said a word. I never spoke to him again for the following few decades we were at shows together. The HOF pin and charm, by the way, brought me $700 from one of the next dealers I talked to.

[Exhibitman]

I've never understood why some dealers are rude to walk-ups. It takes just as much effort to be an asshat as to be courteous, with the added bonus of a potential re-engagement with the customer if he has something else to sell later and found you to be a decent guy to approach.

As for the Mantle, it has crossed over into a different realm than an average card, so all bets are off as to what happens down the line. My (considerable) gut tells me that it is a good longer-term hold; has been for decades and I see no reason why it will not be later.

A lot of us old duffers are just not used to the numbers that the modern collectors thrown around routinely. They don't think twice about going into five figures on a card, probably because they have no recollection of what it was like when beater Mantle cards were in dollar boxes. I think the % of them that eventually find their way to vintage won't flinch at paying what it takes to get hold of an iconic card like the Mantle, at prices that leave us shaking our heads at our own lack of vision decades earlier. They don't have the emotional baggage that comes with realizing that a reallocation of purchases 30 years ago would have been a lottery win today. My wife asked me why I didn't buy some of these cards in the 1990s. Because I was a sap who did the right thing and put money into my IRA instead. Besides, if I'd come home and announced that I used the IRA money to buy a baseball card, she'd have tossed me and the card to the curb.

[Johnny630]

Through all this talk lets think about it? What's the next possible vintage card to take off like this? We can't go back and buy a 52 Mantle fair now but heck we might be able to find the next one :-) positive vibes !!

[Tyruscobb]

$12.5M compounded at just 8% (conservative estimate), over five years, equals $18,366,600.96. This is almost a 47% return.

$12.5M compounded at 10% (average historical return), over five years, equals $20,131,375. This is over a 61% return.

I know it's impossible to predict the card market, let alone the stock market, but I just don't see this card appreciating more than 61% in 5 years - making it a great investment.

The card will probably appreciate overtime, but I think the biggest upside is already baked into the cake.

I know this analysis is probably moot. The person who purchased the card probably has enough money that the investment analysis doesn't matter. I mean, what is $12.5M to a billionaire.

[chriskim]

has the new owner step out to claim the victory yet? Rob Gough right?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

$12.5M compounded at just 8% (conservative estimate), over five years, equals $18,366,600.96. This is almost a 47% return.

$12.5M compounded at 10% (average historical return), over five years, equals $20,131,375. This is over a 61% return.

I know it's impossible to predict the card market, let alone the stock market, but I just don't see this card appreciating more than 61% in 5 years - making it a great investment.

The card will probably appreciate overtime, but I think the biggest upside is already baked into the cake.

I know this analysis is probably moot. The person who purchased the card probably has enough money that the investment analysis doesn't matter. I mean, what is $12.5M to a billionaire.

I've been thinking this for the past 5 years and have been dead wrong every year that passes. Just because it doesn't make sense doesn't mean it's not so. This card has a Cult Like Following. Sure I think 5's and lower have topped out for the next few years however the higher ends it's not coming down. I accept it for what it is.