National should be really interesting

[Johnny630]

The problem is the good stuff is going to go deep under....the people that have it won’t sell in this upcoming, notice I said upcoming, we haven’t gotten there yet market. They will have in their minds that it was worth x amount in mid 2020-early 2022 mentality. I can see the vintage market as slightly lower but mostly stagnate with little to no change over the next few years. The past two years of growth were ridiculous and unsustainable to continue.

Hold on tight.

It’s never as good as it seems and it’s never as bad as it seems.

[Exhibitman]

The rarest stuff and the bargains will all be gone before the show opens to the public.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

If you think about the supply and demand situation, if people hold the rarities for fear of a down market, that inhibits supply which may keep prices up. It's when the market gets flooded with people who can't, or don't want to, hold anymore that prices will drop.

Pre War is usually pretty recession resistant. New stuff typically doesn't fair well. We'll see what happens this time around if things keep going south economically.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Yep, people who can afford to tuck their good stuff away may end up doing so in hopes of a future upward swing, but that may not always be the most sound of decisions.

I haven't found anything good at a National since 2007. It's either a dusty museum that really needs a change of exhibits or worthless junk pile. The interesting stuff is at the auction house booths, but much of that is rehashed material as well. We can look at that stuff on their websites from the comfort of home.

Haven't attended since 2018 and will hopefully never do so again.

[bnorth]

I have never been to one but hope to some day. I have very little interest in going there to buy. I would just like to go look at all the super cool stuff.

I am not sure if I can give up what the game used item is but there will be one of the coolest most insanely rare items in baseball history being displayed there this year. It is easily a 7 figure item.

[tulsaboy]

I think that it will be interesting to see when/if some of the folks that bought at the peak start to panic sell. If/when they do, I think there could be a flood of sellers all trying to sell before the retreat in prices gets too drastic. I think, like most, that things like Mantle rookies will not see much of a retreat. But I would think that a lot of the ultra modern shiny stuff, plus some of the tangential stuff like 1989-1990 Fleer basketball, that saw huge price increases (at least on a percentage basis) will plummet for the foreseeable future. If that occurs, I think we will see an absolute onslaught of material coming up for sale, and prices will naturally plunge. People hoping for prices to remain relatively high better hope that people holding that product hold on to it and don't try to dump it to salvage some of their money.

Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home.

kevin

[asoriano]

Originally Posted by tulsaboy

Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home.

kevin

Well said, Kevin.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by tulsaboy

Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home.

kevin

More power to you and everyone else who still manages to recapture even a fraction of the excitement that was felt when going to card shows as younger people. I'd give anything to feel that way again, but it just hasn't felt the same for over 30 years.

[yanks4]

QUOTE=tulsaboy;2234803]I think that it will be interesting to see when/if some of the folks that bought at the peak start to panic sell. If/when they do, I think there could be a flood of sellers all trying to sell before the retreat in prices gets too drastic. I think, like most, that things like Mantle rookies will not see much of a retreat. But I would think that a lot of the ultra modern shiny stuff, plus some of the tangential stuff like 1989-1990 Fleer basketball, that saw huge price increases (at least on a percentage basis) will plummet for the foreseeable future. If that occurs, I think we will see an absolute onslaught of material coming up for sale, and prices will naturally plunge. People hoping for prices to remain relatively high better hope that people holding that product hold on to it and don't try to dump it to salvage some of their money.

Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home.

kevin[/QUOTE]

Absolutely!

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BillyCox3

I haven't found anything good at a National since 2007. It's either a dusty museum that really needs a change of exhibits or worthless junk pile. The interesting stuff is at the auction house booths, but much of that is rehashed material as well. We can look at that stuff on their websites from the comfort of home.

Haven't attended since 2018 and will hopefully never do so again.

Wow, that is so not my experience. I was at 1991, 1996, and every show from 2004-2019. Here's the thing: it works only if you work it. I spend all day, every day, dealer opening until the end, relentlessly digging through piles of stuff, looking at countless thousands of cards a day, etc. Lunch? That's for wimps. Socializing? Plenty of time for that after dinner. I was last at the 2019 show and off the top of my head, the first day alone, I found a Buchner Anson, a 1950 Sylvan Sweets Jackie Robinson, an Exhibit Appling with a Holloway Black Cow Sucker back, a 1947 Tip Top Wagner, a Star Cal Rosen I'd been chasing for years, and a whole bunch of other great stuff. I finished my run of Koufax Bell Brand cards too with a sweet 1958 a bit later in the week, made a trade for a cabinet card of a favorite boxer of mine, even picked up a beautiful run of 1972 Cocoa Puffs Harlem Globetrotters for that set. The only time I've ever come away with virtually nothing was the last time in AC. That show flat-out sucked. About the only highlight there was meeting Riddick Bowe




Even though it is AC, i wish I could go this year but family and personal issues just make it impossible for me to pull it off.

[gonefishin]

I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.

I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.

I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately.

Bingo here. Die hards or people who planned months ago will still go. But the causual collector or last minute ones... I don't think so.

Also, for ones that are going, how much are they now spending?

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.

I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately.

This is why the National being in Chicago every other year is so practical. AC is in my backyard, so I'm going. But for the same reason you aren't attending the show on the East Coast is why I'd never go to a National on the West Coast - never! I may be persuaded to attend if it were ever in Las Vegas, that's about it. In fact, even if I were spotted the airline tickets, I wouldn't head to the other coast - I can get through the show in 2 days so not sure if a trip across the country for 2 days would be worth it to me personally.