How many fake autographs out there?

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

MULTI BILLIONS!!!

"The GMV, or gross merchandise value, of cards sold on the platform totals over $2 billion so far this year, roughly $1 billion in each quarter. The number represents a 175% increase from the same six month period in 2020. " every sale was a fraud!

LOL, Yes Multi Billions, Autographs and cards Multi Billion dollar frauds, both of them. And yes, I'm nuts but not stoopid

[gonefishin]

I've collected autographs for quite a while. There is, no doubt, a lot of fake autographs. It would be hard to place a percentage of fake vs authentic autographs. I find that if you look beyond an autographed card, and look at items from the 50's and prior, there is a much higher percentage of authentic autographs than fakes. I try to put all the pieces in perspective when I buy an item. If it's a group of items let's say from the 50's, and there is an autographed score card that contains the autograph of Warren Spahn and other autographs from the Braves - and it passes the "sniff" test (a real signature, compares with other known examples you have, etc.) - then it probably is the real deal. I try to take everything in the group into consideration; other items from the period such as cards, letters, pennants, etc. When I do this, and send the item to PSA it is ALMOST 100% authentic.

If someone buys an autographed ball that was made AFTER the player that supposedly signed it was deceased - SHAME ON BOTH THE BUYER AND THE SELLER! The buyer made a very uneducated purchase and the seller committed a crime (if he knew it was fake).

I do think that PSA, JSA, etc. sometimes take the easy way out by stating a particular autograph was "Secretarial". That's kind of like grading a card an 8 and then adding "MC". The autograph is real but it's "Secretarial" and the card is an 8 but it's Miscut. Crazy stuff.

[homerunhitter]

Why even collect autographs at this point?

[gonefishin]

I enjoy collecting them because it is something that has a direct link to the player and the game. Yes, there's a lot fake stuff out there from crooks. Yes, it crazy that players like Mike Schmidt charge a small fortune for their autograph.

The vintage stuff is cool to collect when you collect something, such as a letter, that contains the players thoughts, etc. Also, there are still authentic autographs out there - Warren Spahn for example (debatable but probably the best left handed pitcher to ever play the game; most wins by a lefty, 4th on the all time wins list, etc.) - that are still quite affordable. I didn't really start out collecting autographs, just kind of got into it while collecting cards. Now I really enjoy it. You know the saying "Try it, you might like it".

[homerunhitter]

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

Anyone who makes a claim like this is just blowing hyperbolic smoke to further a narrative. There is no way to know with any amount of accuracy what the percentage number would be. There are tons of real autographs...there are tons of fake autographs. There may be certain highly sought after HOFers who are often the target of forgers (Mantle, DiMaggio, etc.) that perhaps could approach that 90% threshold (who really knows)...but "90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged!" is a ridiculous statement.

[homerunhitter]

hey Kevin,

I always appreciate your thoughts. thats what i thought as well when i read that. perhaps he was meaning 90% of high end HOFers are forged which would make more sense. Ill have to go re read that as maybe I misread it. (even though I thought I read it somewhere on the internet or maybe even on these boards that 80-90% forgery rate was standard for HOFers.) even though i dont think anyone is forging doerr, feller, dawson , fingers or gossage!

with that being said, without taking into account what he said in his book. what percentage of fake HOFers do you guys think is out there realistically? thanks

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

The bottom line: Don't waste time pondering what percentage are fake. That answer will never be known. To throw a number out there just looks foolish. Instead, spend your time learning the subject matter so you can avoid the fakes.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

I would guess the percentage is similar to high end vintage cards being altered included the ones in slabs. So yes a very high percentage.

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I would guess the percentage is similar to high end vintage cards being altered included the ones in slabs. So yes a very high percentage.

Interested to know the basis for that comment. As someone who has collected thousands of MLB autos in person and through the mail I think the idea that the aggregate forged % for MLB autos is above say 10 or 15% is just wrong. If you are talking specific high value players like Ruth or Mantle or Clemente then of course the % is high. But nobody is forging Mick Kelleher or Marc Sullivan or Garth Iorg.*

*I should say almost nobody. There is at least one guy who is happy to forge any common player for a buck. eBay seems fine with that. And the feds have shown no interest yet.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Why even collect autographs at this point?

Maybe because it's a fun hobby and if you're smart about it, you will minimize the forged examples in your collection. I'm guessing that, by and large, knowledgeable collectors, like many on this forum, set the market for in-demand autographs, including those slabbed by the big boys, not those trying to peddle bad ones. You can bet that any that seem to "fall through the cracks" in major auctions and eBay, etc., and certainly any at shows presented for sale at a big discount, have been judged by that community to be suspect. So if you want to think you're getting a bargain by paying less than the current marketplace, fine, but then don't complain about all the forgeries in the hobby or do get out of it entirely. Do some digging to find out who among the TPAs seem to really know their stuff, and even better do a lot of homework and become an expert yourself like many here have done.

[Republicaninmass]

100% of coaches corner autos are forgeries.


So there's that


I guess I'm not looking in the right place.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

100% of coaches corner autos are forgeries.
So there's that. I guess I'm not looking in the right place.

Roaches Corner would be Exhibit A in any tutorial about smart collecting under rule #1: "If it seems too good to be true, it probably is."

[gonefishin]

Seems like there are still some pretty strong believers out there, one way or the other.

I think we can all agree that no one - no one - knows the number of times anyone has ever signed there name to something. No one - no one - even knows how many times they have signed there own name, much less anyone else. So the percentage will always be unknown.

I have several thousand autographs on various types of media; balls, photos, cards, etc. I only have a few that I obtained in person, such as Randy Jones when I was visiting with him at a Padres game. Randy owned a bar-b-que venue at the stadium (Jack Murphy at that time) and he was there all the time - visiting with people, signing autographs and just representing the Padres. Good man.

Through the years I have submitted several to PSA or JSA for authentication. They have ranged from Walter Johnson on a type 1 photo to Louis Armstrong on a type 1. I would say that maybe 1 in 20 submissions are returned as questionable or "not able to determine - such as a Henry Ford auto". The majority of "club house" versions seems to always be on baseballs.

The general thought out there is that every autograph is either stamped, forged, of secretarial. It is so bad that I wanted to share this photo of an auction lot that I recently won. It was from the estate of Lefty Gomez. It contains an autographed photo, autographed HoF cards, and a letter from Bill Dickey's wife to Lefty Gomez. Look closely at the bottom of the letter, she says "Lefty, the autographs aren't stamped!"

[Klrdds]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Maybe because it's a fun hobby and if you're smart about it, you will minimize the forged examples in your collection. I'm guessing that, by and large, knowledgeable collectors, like many on this forum, set the market for in-demand autographs, including those slabbed by the big boys, not those trying to peddle bad ones. You can bet that any that seem to "fall through the cracks" in major auctions and eBay, etc., and certainly any at shows presented for sale at a big discount, have been judged by that community to be suspect. So if you want to think you're getting a bargain by paying less than the current marketplace, fine, but then don't complain about all the forgeries in the hobby or do get out of it entirely. Do some digging to find out who among the TPAs seem to really know their stuff, and even better do a lot of homework and become an expert yourself like many here have done.

I agree 100%.
Self education is the safest road to take but this won’t happen fast or be easy . Also develop a few knowledgeable collectors as friends to trust and network with but always trust yourself first and foremost . I have found self education better than any TPA for the most part except in rare instances. If you want to rely on TPAs that is ok but seek out the best ones with your own research.