How many fake autographs out there?

[homerunhitter]

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

Anyone who makes a claim like this is just blowing hyperbolic smoke to further a narrative. There is no way to know with any amount of accuracy what the percentage number would be. There are tons of real autographs...there are tons of fake autographs. There may be certain highly sought after HOFers who are often the target of forgers (Mantle, DiMaggio, etc.) that perhaps could approach that 90% threshold (who really knows)...but "90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged!" is a ridiculous statement.

[homerunhitter]

hey Kevin,

I always appreciate your thoughts. thats what i thought as well when i read that. perhaps he was meaning 90% of high end HOFers are forged which would make more sense. Ill have to go re read that as maybe I misread it. (even though I thought I read it somewhere on the internet or maybe even on these boards that 80-90% forgery rate was standard for HOFers.) even though i dont think anyone is forging doerr, feller, dawson , fingers or gossage!

with that being said, without taking into account what he said in his book. what percentage of fake HOFers do you guys think is out there realistically? thanks

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

The bottom line: Don't waste time pondering what percentage are fake. That answer will never be known. To throw a number out there just looks foolish. Instead, spend your time learning the subject matter so you can avoid the fakes.

[homerunhitter]

i knew i read it somewhere, i did a google search and this is what pops up on google. below is a quote from the article that I was reading on google.


“The vast majority of Hall Fame autographs are forged,” claims Ron Keurajian, author of the indispensable reference guide, Baseball Hall of Fame Autographs. When it comes to pre-World War II autographs, Keurajian told me that he believes that 90 percent of the Hall of Famers are not real, particularly those of immortals such as Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Lou Gehrig, Honus Wagner, and Cy Young."


what is your interpretation of this paragraph? (maybe i misunderstood what i read) what do you say? thanks

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

The bottom line: Don't waste time pondering what percentage are fake. That answer will never be known. To throw a number out there just looks foolish. Instead, spend your time learning the subject matter so you can avoid the fakes.

Amen to that...My thoughts exactly.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by billycoxdodgers3b

the bottom line: Don't waste time pondering what percentage are fake. That answer will never be known. To throw a number out there just looks foolish. Instead, spend your time learning the subject matter so you can avoid the fakes.

+100

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

I would guess the percentage is similar to high end vintage cards being altered included the ones in slabs. So yes a very high percentage.

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I would guess the percentage is similar to high end vintage cards being altered included the ones in slabs. So yes a very high percentage.

Interested to know the basis for that comment. As someone who has collected thousands of MLB autos in person and through the mail I think the idea that the aggregate forged % for MLB autos is above say 10 or 15% is just wrong. If you are talking specific high value players like Ruth or Mantle or Clemente then of course the % is high. But nobody is forging Mick Kelleher or Marc Sullivan or Garth Iorg.*

*I should say almost nobody. There is at least one guy who is happy to forge any common player for a buck. eBay seems fine with that. And the feds have shown no interest yet.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by sreader3

Interested to know the basis for that comment. As someone who has collected thousands of MLB autos in person and through the mail I think the idea that the aggregate forged % for MLB autos is above say 10 or 15% is just wrong. If you are talking specific high value players like Ruth or Mantle or Clemente then of course the % is high. But nobody is forging Mick Kelleher or Marc Sullivan or Garth Iorg.

I have been emailing with former pitcher Brian Hollman off and on for many years. Ever hear of him, probably not but you can go on eBay and find fake autos of his. So yes even people you never heard of that will happily sign anything for free have their autos forged all the time.

I honestly would only trust an auto I personally got directly from the player while watching them sign the item. Just my opinion.

[sreader3]

Yes I know who Brian Holman is. I stand by my statement that the aggregate forged % is very low, but not zero, for autos of common players.

Forged autos generally follow the money—although scumbags who take photos of themselves with famous players and then forge signatures of those players (as well as common players) and pawn them off on eBay ad infinitum are admittedly out there. I have had trouble getting authorities interested in these cases.

[theshleps]

My son batboyed in the Arizona fall league and also worked in the clubhouse. He was asked by a player to sign all his fan mail for him. This player was not a big star. We also new an NHL player (minor star) whose wife would sign for him. TTM stuff should be compared to IP for sure but I do think most TTM for non stars is fine. As to fakes on ebay there are definitely some sellers who sell 1000's of forgeries and have wonderful feedback. I've mentioned a few in the past as have many others here. I think for the most part the sellers are legit but with ebay selling millions of autographs monthly at least 1000s get through that are forgeries. And obviously a % of fakes still get slabbed by TPA though if it is one of the bigger TPA the % is small but those guys are probably not as good as some of the folks here.

[mrmopar]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I have been emailing with former pitcher Brian Hollman off and on for many years. Ever hear of him, probably not but you can go on eBay and find fake autos of his. So yes even people you never heard of that will happily sign anything for free have their autos forged all the time.

I honestly would only trust an auto I personally got directly from the player while watching them sign the item. Just my opinion.

A nobody player could easily become a target of fraudulent autographs simply by avoiding signing. His lack of signature supply then creates the opportunity for someone to assist with team and set builders. Of course, if they never signed much, identifying what the signature should and does look like becomes more difficult.

I collect Dodger autographs and often wonder if the handful of Bob Wilson autographs I see out there are ALL fakes or real, as they all seem to look similar. He is pretty obscure and his autographs don't seem to pop up often.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Wilson the Dodger had beautiful penmanship. Thankfully, the other Bob ("Red") Wilson usually signed with his nickname later on, thereby mostly avoiding the two players with the same name from being mixed up too often.