How many fake autographs out there?

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by BillyCox3

It's a source of personal annoyance whenever I see some news reporter saying "90% of all autographs in today's marketplace are fake" with an air of authority. First of all, they know nothing about the subject matter; they're just doing a news story. Secondly, no matter how hard anyone tries, regardless of how much knowledge they may have, an indisputable percentage will never be properly ascertained. It's impossible.

I can say, however, that when taking every athlete's autograph into consideration, the total figure is nowhere near 90%.

Remember, we are talking about counterfeit pieces, not secretarials, not rubber stamps, not autopens, not clubhouse. While those are not authentic, neither are they forgeries. They also represent such a small percentage of the overall number of signed pieces in existence. There's just no way that forgeries account for the 90% figure that's so effortlessly thrown around by the media.

Michael Jordan? Mantle? Lots.

Bobby Shantz? Virgil Trucks? Not so much.

Will somebody forge a nearly valueless autograph? Certainly. I've seen a three inch stack of fake Bob Feller 8X10's, yet the vast majority of his autographed material is of course free of problems.

I'm not sure I've seen many news reporters throwing around numbers they made up. Usually they are sourced from knowledgeable industry 'experts'. Anyone who says 50% of Ruth autos EVER. cannot be proven, since there is no way to get the total # of autographs of anyone in history. You are basing on a known existing number, which may be a fraction of the true population.
BUT if you say 50% of Ruth autos offered in May 2022, (or last year, or ending today on eBay) are inauthentic, the number may be easily defensible.

I'm not going to get into B.S. COA's or specific TPGs that seemed to be set up for scammers. But if any TPG certifies a photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, or autopen as authentic, that is a mistake that is made a very small percentage of the time overall. (some individual players have a higher incidence).

The OP asked about FAKE (inauthentic) autographs, which is different than FORGED autographs. Any photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, autopen, or non-malicious forgery, ALL get added to the side of FAKE with the actual forgeries when presented as authentic.

My reading of the OPs question was "What is the percentage of inauthentic autographs that are specifically on eBay at any given time?" NOT how many forgeries have been sold in relation to all possible autographs ever signed, or even a subset of fakes TPG slabbed in relation to the pop report.

Hope this makes some sense as I haven't had coffee yet.

[sreader3]

In general I think the fake rate is higher for autos of Hall of Famers and much lower (but not zero) for autos of common players. I will only comment specifically on ‘72 Topps baseball where I have seen tens of thousands of examples. There I would say we’re talking about 10%-15% of autos on eBay listings being fake for HOFers and about 5% for commons. Just a rough estimate. If you stick with TPG your odds improve. There are some sellers who have 100% positive eBay feedback who sell mostly fake autos mixed in with a few authentics—including fake autoed commons! Don’t trust eBay photos of the seller with the player. That is one of the big scams.

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by sreader3

In general I think the fake rate is higher for autos of Hall of Famers and much lower (but not zero) for autos of common players. I will only comment specifically on ‘72 Topps baseball where I have seen tens of thousands of examples. There I would say we’re talking about 10%-15% of autos on eBay listings being fake for HOFers and about 5% for commons. Just a rough estimate. If you stick with TPG your odds improve. There are some sellers who have 100% positive eBay feedback who sell mostly fake autos mixed in with a few authentics—including fake autoed commons! Don’t trust eBay photos of the seller with the player. That is one of the big scams.

I would agree with you on most of this. Anyone who says 90% or some such number is blowing smoke out their rectum. Their eyes and hair are probably brown as they are full of it up to there. One comment was that the reporters always check their facts - really!!! When you are going for big headlines you are going to make outrageous claims not borne out by statistics. If such a claim came from a paid opinionator, they are NOT, NOT, NOT authenticators, they were claiming that as a purported fact to drive business to them.

This broad brush statement is so silly as it is never qualified. What does it mean? It is just baseball? It is all of sports? What is it. Yes, there is a higher incidence of forgery in the well known names. Why? That is where the money is for a forger. Forgeries on lesser known names are usually done by people who know they can do it and get a thrill out of being able to deceive. No one is going to pay more than a dollar or two for a signed 83 Fleer or any similar card. It does not pay.

I am sure there are a lot of old time in person collectors who will tell you stories of players who would sign stacks of cards for a person and think nothing of it. I used to see it for hockey teams. Most players would stand there and sign 10-15 cards for a person, then the same amount for the next. Some basketball players were the same way. I had an acquaintance who saved basketball photos from every possible magazine and newspaper he could find for all college and pro players. When the teams came through town they were more than happy to sign his 4 or 5 photos. Back in 1984 I was the first person to get Michael Jordan in Boston. The night before the game he came in after the team with another player and signed 6 or 7 magazines for me - SI's and High School Sports. The next year a friend gave him literally a shopping bag filled with items - foam mounted magazine photos, magazines, index cards and the such. He took them to his room and gave them back, all signed, the next day.

There are also Olympians, musicians, actors, authors, politicians, scientists, etc. who should be included in any conversation. I can say from personal experience that Olympians are very accommodating. I can show you about 15,000 genuine signatures without trying. I can think of two fakes I have ever seen in that category. Musicians were always very easy and would sign a lot. I have gotten multiples, usually 2 or 3, from even big names at one time - David Bowie, Pete Townsend, Paul Stanley, Elton John, Roger Daltrey, Ted Nugent, etc.

Certainly ebay and online have changed the dynamics, but so much was signed and is still legitimately signed that it far outnumbers the fakes and forgeries.

One poster tried to suggest that fakes and forgeries were different. How possibly is that? A forgery is a fake and a fake is a forgery. Autopen, pre-printed, secretarial and the such are not intended to be malicious representations of the real thing. To assert otherwise is just silly. Those are all done with the express knowledge of the person, thus not a forgery or a fake, just not a genuine signature.

[ATP]

Just for fun I went online and looked up the most 20 recent Mickey Mantle autographs that were listed for sale. 16 of them are good, 4 are not. That's actually a better ratio that I would have thought it would be. I might check again in a day or two and see if it's still similar

[tlake22]

Facts:

1. No way to tell
2. Depends on who it is
3. In the end, unless obtained in person, there's no way to be sure of authenticity

[Deertick]

Michael B, I would agree with you on most of this.

Anyone who says 90% or some such number is blowing smoke out their rectum. Their eyes and hair are probably brown as they are full of it up to there.

I spent the better part of 3 years reporting fakes online to eBay and LiveAuctioneers. Hundreds a day. Worked with local auction houses to remove items and refuse to take similar consignments. Gave the State Attorney all the info I gathered about the sources. Months later they called and said that the value of any single transaction didn't meet a threshold. I stopped to save my sanity* once I realized that it was futile reporting "authentic" reproductions passed as original. They are on eBay right now, along with the Garo, Rocchi, and other Operation Bullshit. *(Sorry, maybe I didn't stop soon enough. ) (Not meant as an appeal to authority, but as a look into my perspective, which may be skewed)

One comment was that the reporters always check their facts - really!!!

No one said that.

When you are going for big headlines you are going to make outrageous claims not borne out by statistics. If such a claim came from a paid opinionator, they are NOT, NOT, NOT authenticators, they were claiming that as a purported fact to drive business to them.

Possibly. But what if the source is the FBI, or a State Attorney General?

This broad brush statement is so silly as it is never qualified. What does it mean? It is just baseball? It is all of sports? What is it.

Agreed. Without definition of the set or subset AND a known quantity of each, it is a guess.

Yes, there is a higher incidence of forgery in the well known names. Why? That is where the money is for a forger. Forgeries on lesser known names are usually done by people who know they can do it and get a thrill out of being able to deceive. No one is going to pay more than a dollar or two for a signed 83 Fleer or any similar card. It does not pay.

660 x $1-$2 =

I am sure there are a lot of old time in person collectors who will tell you stories of players who would sign stacks of cards for a person and think nothing of it. I used to see it for hockey teams. Most players would stand there and sign 10-15 cards for a person, then the same amount for the next. Some basketball players were the same way. I had an acquaintance who saved basketball photos from every possible magazine and newspaper he could find for all college and pro players. When the teams came through town they were more than happy to sign his 4 or 5 photos. Back in 1984 I was the first person to get Michael Jordan in Boston. The night before the game he came in after the team with another player and signed 6 or 7 magazines for me - SI's and High School Sports. The next year a friend gave him literally a shopping bag filled with items - foam mounted magazine photos, magazines, index cards and the such. He took them to his room and gave them back, all signed, the next day.

There are also Olympians, musicians, actors, authors, politicians, scientists, etc. who should be included in any conversation. I can say from personal experience that Olympians are very accommodating. I can show you about 15,000 genuine signatures without trying. I can think of two fakes I have ever seen in that category. Musicians were always very easy and would sign a lot. I have gotten multiples, usually 2 or 3, from even big names at one time - David Bowie, Pete Townsend, Paul Stanley, Elton John, Roger Daltrey, Ted Nugent, etc.

Absolutely. But the question is how many are how many of these items are changing hands. If Whitey Ford signed 100,000 items in his life, is it reasonable to think that on any given week 100 of the exact same item would be for sale?

Certainly ebay and online have changed the dynamics, but so much was signed and is still legitimately signed that it far outnumbers the fakes and forgeries.

Again the difference between what exists vs. the subset of what is offered for sale.

One poster tried to suggest that fakes and forgeries were different. How possibly is that? A forgery is a fake and a fake is a forgery.

Agree somewhat. But it is mostly semantics.

Autopen, pre-printed, secretarial and the such are not intended to be malicious representations of the real thing. To assert otherwise is just silly. Those are all done with the express knowledge of the person, thus not a forgery or a fake, just not a genuine signature.

This is true until those non-malicious representations are then misrepresented as "genuine signatures". And the "the such" you referenced above includes reproductions of genuine signatures onto never signed items, or just straight up digital prints of the original, again represented as genuine. And, as opposed to a hand forged item, they can be made by the hundreds (per hour, if desired).