What Would You Do ????

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

The gentleman is 50 has 950,000 saved in his 401k, two kids in college one is full funded the other has half funded two years to go in school. He has 160k left on his mortgage, looking to retire in 10 years.

Definitely the S&P in that scenario.

[butchie_t]

The wonderful method of compounding interest leans heavily towards the S&P.

[Smarti5051]

With about a $1M nest egg for retirement and about a decade to go (and assuming he some day wants to retire), I think the more prudent thing to do is either invest in VTI or pay off the mortgage. If he had $4M+ invested, looking to alternative investments for the sake of diversity would make more sense.

Imagine a scenario where five years from now the 401K is worth $400K because of a major recession and he is a few years away from retirement (or worse, gets forced into retirement due to a bad economy). He still has 5 years on a mortgage, $400K in a 401K he can't touch, and he is trying to sell a very expensive piece of cardboard to a market where most of his customers have just lost 50%+ of their net worth. At least VTI would push out some dividends and he could liquidate small amounts in an emergency.

With that said, is he a big sports card collector? If so, the psychological benefit of acquiring and owning a "grail card" could tip the balance closer to even. But, if that card represents 10%+ of his net worth, then you could have additional costs of storage and insurance. So, unless he is as crazy as most of us on these boards, I don't think it is smart from a financial "investment" standpoint.

I also wonder about the timeline posed in your original question. You say he is 50. You also say he is looking for an investment to "hold" for 25 years. That puts him at 75 when he is looking to potentially liquidate the card. 75 is far from guaranteed to anyone. I am not there yet, but it seems like there is less value in a stockpile of money when you are 75 than when you are 60-65. At least in the stock market, you can liquidate smaller portions of your investment over the years for experiences and things that make your life more enjoyable or easier.

[gonefishin]

A lot of great thoughts there for consideration. However, I don't know if I would put all my eggs in the same basket in case I dopped the basket.

Why not consider spreading the love out over say - 10 - high end cards. Some are still out there that may increase more than Mantle as the people that can afford a Mantle gets smaller each day. Aaron, Banks, Koufax, etc. are still within reach.

That is what happened with a lot of the more desirable star cards - people bought them up for collecting and locked them up, and would only surface again 20-30 years later. In my opinion its great for investing but not for collecting.

Just a thought.

[kmac32]

Stock market has more upside and liquidity than the Mantel so assuming no trade restrictions and good advise, go for the market.

[FrankWakefield]

To choose #1, the ball card, would be a decision based on the heart. Why not a Michael Jordan basketball rookie card or a Bronko Nagurski National Chicle football card; because his heart is saying Mantle baseball card.

To choose #2, the brokerage account investment, is a decision based on the head. That's the correct decision. It lacks that emotional swing that our hearts put us through; but it's the right choice.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

To choose #1, the ball card, would be a decision based on the heart. Why not a Michael Jordan basketball rookie card or a Bronko Nagurski National Chicle football card; because his heart is saying Mantle baseball card.

To choose #2, the brokerage account investment, is a decision based on the head. That's the correct decision. It lacks that emotional swing that our hearts put us through; but it's the right choice.

Agree !!

Never mix feelings/emotions with investing.

[Dewey]

Bitcoin

[oldjudge]

It depends what his financial situation is. If the $150,000 represents his entire savings then definitely the stock market. If the $150,000 was just change found under a couch cushion and he likes Mantle then I’d go with the card. BTW, current capital gains tax rules favor stock investment over collectibles with the long term rate on collectible gains being almost double the comparable rate on equities.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

To choose #1, the ball card, would be a decision based on the heart. Why not a Michael Jordan basketball rookie card or a Bronko Nagurski National Chicle football card; because his heart is saying Mantle baseball card.

To choose #2, the brokerage account investment, is a decision based on the head. That's the correct decision. It lacks that emotional swing that our hearts put us through; but it's the right choice.

Agree !!

Never mix feelings/emotions with investing.

[Yoda]

The market is clearly the prudent way to proceed; diversity, spread of risk etc. But you can put the Mantle under your pillow at night and gaze at it during the day. Harder to do with stocks.

[MattyC]

The most recent comps of the Mantles make me say go with the Mantle, provided you can obtain dead centering for that price. Stocks having taken a hit recently certainly make that an attractive play, especially if you go with something like Vanguard, but here's where the Mantle comps become very compelling based on the "givens" provided...

If you can get a dead centered 6 Mantle for 150k, then I would say that is the way to go— because an SGC 5 with merely B/B+ centering just sold the other day for 180k. So at 150k for the 6, you would be getting a pretty substantial steal. A truly dead centered 6 would hit 250k and certainly have potential to go north of that at the right auction, if the eye appeal is there and the right two buyers see it and want it. So at 150k for a dead centered 6, you are instantly up so big, it is hard to turn that opportunity down.

Even a dead-centered 5 would certainly eclipse 200k, based on the recent comp of 180k for an SGC 5 with merely "okay" centering, and another comp of 156k for a PSA 5 that was a worse card than the SGC 5. So at 150k you would already instantly be "in the money," so to speak, to the tune of some 50k. As a further comp for dead-centering on the 52t Mantle, I can say I have had two separate offers in 2022 on my dead-centered 4.5 of 175k, and one offer of 200k. So again, at 150k for dead centering in a 5 or 6— if the card can be found at that price— I'd go for it.

Of course the above is just based on sheer money bet; if I were the client and had such a robust 401k, I may lean strongly to something like a piece of artwork or the Mantle, if that was what my heart desired and would bring me some intangible joy beyond the mere investment aspect. Personal living philosophy comes into play for sure in a situation like this.

[Touch'EmAll]

If you can locate a truly honest killer dead centered PSA 5 for $150.k I would probably bite and go for that. Remember, nobody says you must keep the card for 25 years. You may see a nice profit after only few years, then sell it and move on.

Looking at prices, has to be a 6