What Would You Do ????

[Rhotchkiss]

Good question. I say the stock market, but only bc it’s so beat up right now and top cards are so expensive. On the whole, I think the 52 mantle beats the stock market, but timing matters, and right now I think stock in top companies presents a better buying opportunity (“deal”) than blue chip cards, which are sitting at all time highs. .

Tax wise - under current tax code, the sale of stocks held for one year is a better tax result than the sale of a collectible held for investment.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Good question. I say the stock market, but only bc it’s so beat up right now and top cards are so expensive. On the whole, I think the 52 mantle beats the stock market, but timing matters, and right now I think stock in top companies presents a better buying opportunity (“deal”) than blue chip cards, which are sitting at all time highs. .

Tax wise - under current tax code, the sale of stocks held for one year is a better tax result than the sale of a collectible held for investment.

Very well said. I agree with you.

Thank You

[x2drich2000]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Good question. I say the stock market, but only bc it’s so beat up right now and top cards are so expensive. On the whole, I think the 52 mantle beats the stock market, but timing matters, and right now I think stock in top companies presents a better buying opportunity (“deal”) than blue chip cards, which are sitting at all time highs. .

Tax wise - under current tax code, the sale of stocks held for one year is a better tax result than the sale of a collectible held for investment.

100% agree, I would also add that we don't know much about the client other than they are "high end". I would assume the client has sufficient assets elsewhere but without knowing for sure I wouldn't act on that assumption. IMO it would be irresponsible to suggest the Mantle if the person doesn't already have a well rounded portfolio. From an investment prospective, the Mantle lacks the flexibility to withdraw a portion of the investment if needed. For that reason, without further info, I would take the stocks to protect the person when life happens to them.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

100% agree, I would also add that we don't know much about the client other than they are "high end". I would assume the client has sufficient assets elsewhere but without knowing for sure I wouldn't act on that assumption. IMO it would be irresponsible to suggest the Mantle if the person doesn't already have a well rounded portfolio. From an investment prospective, the Mantle lacks the flexibility to withdraw a portion of the investment if needed. For that reason, without further info, I would take the stocks to protect the person when life happens to them.

The gentleman is 50 has 950,000 saved in his 401k, two kids in college one is full funded the other has half funded two years to go in school. He has 160k left on his mortgage, looking to retire in 10 years.

[parkplace33]

The answer is stocks.

The Mantle is great but stocks are better. With the market down, I see a prime buying opportunity.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

The gentleman is 50 has 950,000 saved in his 401k, two kids in college one is full funded the other has half funded two years to go in school. He has 160k left on his mortgage, looking to retire in 10 years.

Definitely the S&P in that scenario.

[butchie_t]

The wonderful method of compounding interest leans heavily towards the S&P.

[Smarti5051]

With about a $1M nest egg for retirement and about a decade to go (and assuming he some day wants to retire), I think the more prudent thing to do is either invest in VTI or pay off the mortgage. If he had $4M+ invested, looking to alternative investments for the sake of diversity would make more sense.

Imagine a scenario where five years from now the 401K is worth $400K because of a major recession and he is a few years away from retirement (or worse, gets forced into retirement due to a bad economy). He still has 5 years on a mortgage, $400K in a 401K he can't touch, and he is trying to sell a very expensive piece of cardboard to a market where most of his customers have just lost 50%+ of their net worth. At least VTI would push out some dividends and he could liquidate small amounts in an emergency.

With that said, is he a big sports card collector? If so, the psychological benefit of acquiring and owning a "grail card" could tip the balance closer to even. But, if that card represents 10%+ of his net worth, then you could have additional costs of storage and insurance. So, unless he is as crazy as most of us on these boards, I don't think it is smart from a financial "investment" standpoint.

I also wonder about the timeline posed in your original question. You say he is 50. You also say he is looking for an investment to "hold" for 25 years. That puts him at 75 when he is looking to potentially liquidate the card. 75 is far from guaranteed to anyone. I am not there yet, but it seems like there is less value in a stockpile of money when you are 75 than when you are 60-65. At least in the stock market, you can liquidate smaller portions of your investment over the years for experiences and things that make your life more enjoyable or easier.

[gonefishin]

A lot of great thoughts there for consideration. However, I don't know if I would put all my eggs in the same basket in case I dopped the basket.

Why not consider spreading the love out over say - 10 - high end cards. Some are still out there that may increase more than Mantle as the people that can afford a Mantle gets smaller each day. Aaron, Banks, Koufax, etc. are still within reach.

That is what happened with a lot of the more desirable star cards - people bought them up for collecting and locked them up, and would only surface again 20-30 years later. In my opinion its great for investing but not for collecting.

Just a thought.

[kmac32]

Stock market has more upside and liquidity than the Mantel so assuming no trade restrictions and good advise, go for the market.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Good question. I say the stock market, but only bc it’s so beat up right now and top cards are so expensive. On the whole, I think the 52 mantle beats the stock market, but timing matters, and right now I think stock in top companies presents a better buying opportunity (“deal”) than blue chip cards, which are sitting at all time highs. .

Tax wise - under current tax code, the sale of stocks held for one year is a better tax result than the sale of a collectible held for investment.

+1 agreed in addition the stocks gives you the flexibility down the road to take out of the market to potentially Persue the Mantle down the line and still have some or all of your original investment in the market with the growth covering your future card collection/investment