Does The Stock Market Influence Your Vintage Purchases?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't doubt it, but would be curious to see that data, where are you getting it?

Peter, when I was actively writing a price guide for boxing cards I amassed data every year for the new edition. I noticed that in the Great Recession, the mess really got under way in the summer of 2008 as the real estate market imploded but boxing auctions still did really well into 2009. Then things started to fizzle out. I saw a bottom of the market in Fall 2010, and it was stable for a few years then slowly built back. That tracked with my experiences buying cards for the PC and trying to sell in 1990 and 2001.

[conor912]

I bought all the way up, and I'll buy all the way down.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by conor912

I bought all the way up, and I'll buy all the way down.

I LIKE it!

[Yoda]

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

Interesting you brought this up. While it did set a record, some estimates had it going for $400 million.

[Johnny630]

When interest rates go up many of the ultra wealthy hide out in treasuries...way less risk. When interest rates are low big money hedges in collectables.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

[G1911]

The way I see it, if the tumbling of my stock portfolio (and boy is it tumbling...) changes my financial situation to where I need to pull back on my discretionary expenses, then I have spent too much on toys and been grossly irresponsible. X money goes to savings and necessary stable expenses, Y money goes to investment, Z money is set aside for me to waste on cardboard pictures of men. The momentary up/down doesn't affect card budget because my investments are for the long term mostly and I don't take so much out of savings that ups and downs affect my ability to pay the bills.

It might change what cards specifically I buy, as prices shift, but they shift up and down constantly and this is always broadly true.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by japhi

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

[Exhibitman]

Good points, John. The 'market' really isn't monolithic. I think the slash and burn FOMO days are ending. Even then, different items will react differently. I have no qualms about Babe Ruth cards. Shohei Ohtani not so much.

Greg, I hear that! I've been on a kill-eat basis ever since my daughter announced a intention to go to medical school. That's why I run an active card business: gotta raise cash for my collecting completely outside the mainstream of my earnings.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

"There really are two hobbies, when it comes to cards."

Amen!

[japhi]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.

Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.

Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.

And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by japhi

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

There is a fascinating two part podcast series on the art market from Freakanomics. I highly recommend giving it a listen.

[Lorewalker]

I do not have much in the market but when Wall St starts to correct I change my card spending habits because I know most people will get nervous and change their habits. In the bigger picture with gas remaining high, interest rates going up and inflation staring us in the face, I think we will see prices drop (continue to drop) on the cards which are bought by the average collector. At the very least demand will suffer. The cost of living is way up and cards do not feed you when you are hungry. The extremely wealthy collector/investor might pull back a bit but I could still see record prices being paid for elite type material.

On the other hand let's look to March of 2020. DJIA went from almost 30K to roughly 19K and did not recover until Dec 2020. During that time we were all locked down being told Covid would kill us all and card values went up. Further the hobby got the attention of lots of new people who jumped in with both feet. Yes the feds were tossing money at people and many found themselves unable to travel, entertain, etc but I am not sure how much of that influenced prices or to what degree it was a factor.