Does The Stock Market Influence Your Vintage Purchases?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The data suggests otherwise. Gyrations of the stock market might have nothing to do with collecting habits, to be sure, but in terms of prices, there is a correlation.

I don't doubt it, but would be curious to see that data, where are you getting it?

[mrreality68]

To me they are 2 different forms of fun/investment.

When the market is down I do add strategically in the market to add to some positions I have at at better cost basis.

The card collecting is a hobby/very long term investment. As a result I treat these funds as discretionary funds and buy as i have the funds available and see something that I want to buy

[1954 topps]

I have a budget each year for what I can spend on my set build, this is my discretionary fund. The budget stays relatively flat year over year. If the stock is down I invest more, if the card market is down I can afford to buy more with my budget at that time but the budget doesn’t increase.
When my Banks rookie is up 500+% in 6 years it’s a plus but my collection is just a hobby, it isn’t part of my retirement account. So no the stock market doesn’t affect my vintage purchases.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't doubt it, but would be curious to see that data, where are you getting it?

Peter, when I was actively writing a price guide for boxing cards I amassed data every year for the new edition. I noticed that in the Great Recession, the mess really got under way in the summer of 2008 as the real estate market imploded but boxing auctions still did really well into 2009. Then things started to fizzle out. I saw a bottom of the market in Fall 2010, and it was stable for a few years then slowly built back. That tracked with my experiences buying cards for the PC and trying to sell in 1990 and 2001.

[conor912]

I bought all the way up, and I'll buy all the way down.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by conor912

I bought all the way up, and I'll buy all the way down.

I LIKE it!

[Yoda]

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

Interesting you brought this up. While it did set a record, some estimates had it going for $400 million.

[Johnny630]

When interest rates go up many of the ultra wealthy hide out in treasuries...way less risk. When interest rates are low big money hedges in collectables.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Well, the art market remains strong despite the recent pullback of stocks. Yesterday, Andy Warhol's painting of Marilyn Monroe fetched nearly $200 million at auction.

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

[G1911]

The way I see it, if the tumbling of my stock portfolio (and boy is it tumbling...) changes my financial situation to where I need to pull back on my discretionary expenses, then I have spent too much on toys and been grossly irresponsible. X money goes to savings and necessary stable expenses, Y money goes to investment, Z money is set aside for me to waste on cardboard pictures of men. The momentary up/down doesn't affect card budget because my investments are for the long term mostly and I don't take so much out of savings that ups and downs affect my ability to pay the bills.

It might change what cards specifically I buy, as prices shift, but they shift up and down constantly and this is always broadly true.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by japhi

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

Pre '86 hoops is not down 80% from the highs. And as I've mentioned before, '86 to '88 Fleer and modern basketball were the cards that had some of the most insane pandemic gains beforehand. So it's standard market action for those to have the biggest % drops once that mania subsides.

The comment earlier about so many more buyers becoming sellers lately doesn't make sense to me either. Prices for quality vintage have mostly held steady for a year now (obviously at levels that are still substantially higher than pre-pandemic times), and the BIN supply on ebay for vintage in general still only contains mostly overpriced items, and no more than were available when the recent boom was in full swing.

I'm not saying everything is currently amazing in the card world or assuming that things will stay this healthy. But some of you guys really have the most negative spin possible, especially for a marketplace that still looks strong so far (and has done incredible in just a two year stretch)

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by japhi

I have no idea how the broad art market is doing, but don't find these types of "best of the best" items very representative. Same for cards - almost the whole basketball card market is down off ATH's substantially, as in cards that were selling for 20K, now selling for 4K .But if a rare / desirable ultra high end card came up it would smash records. There really are two hobbies, at least when it comes to cards.

There is a fascinating two part podcast series on the art market from Freakanomics. I highly recommend giving it a listen.