Does The Stock Market Influence Your Vintage Purchases?

[EddieP]

Yes. If the stock market is tanking, I’ m not buying cards. I’m buying stocks.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by EddieP

Yes. If the stock market is tanking, I’ m not buying cards. I’m buying stocks.

Great Point !!

[LEHR]

I voted yes.

The more the market goes down the more I'm putting in the market instead of hobbies.

[Exhibitman]

No simple answer from me.

i don't invest in equities or baseball cards. They are different investments. I am getting ready to plunk money into equities once they stabilize in what I think will be a bear market.

I never stop looking for rare cards. I never stop looking for bargains on blue chip players. When it pops up, you have to buy it, or you will regret it.

If the stock market is tanking and there are concerns with recession, I am going to sell cards into it because cards tend to lag the stock market by 9-12 months. I know that after riding the tiger the last 40 years. So, now is the time to sell off the chaff in the collection and inventory. The card market is red hot right now, which means people haven't internalized the pending situation. Time to take advantage.

As things get tougher, first to go are the speculators who will just dump and move on. Next are the dealers who have to get cash flow out of inventory. Followed by the speculators who will hold a bad deal too long and finally capitulate. Then comes the collectors who lose jobs and whose businesses tank and need to sell to make their monthly nut. Once those collectors sell, the fat has been rendered out of the market and it is time to buy. Hard. I am holding cash from card sales waiting for that opportunity. I have a long list of cards that I really like at 60% of recent prlces. I expect many of them to fall to that level over the next 9-12 months.

It's a lot more bloodless than it used to be for me, but that was before the Hobby became the Industry.

[rjackson44]

Stocks have nothing to do with cards period

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Stocks have nothing to do with cards period

The data suggests otherwise. Gyrations of the stock market might have nothing to do with collecting habits, to be sure, but in terms of prices, there is a correlation.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The data suggests otherwise. Gyrations of the stock market might have nothing to do with collecting habits, to be sure, but in terms of prices, there is a correlation.

I don't doubt it, but would be curious to see that data, where are you getting it?

[mrreality68]

To me they are 2 different forms of fun/investment.

When the market is down I do add strategically in the market to add to some positions I have at at better cost basis.

The card collecting is a hobby/very long term investment. As a result I treat these funds as discretionary funds and buy as i have the funds available and see something that I want to buy

[1954 topps]

I have a budget each year for what I can spend on my set build, this is my discretionary fund. The budget stays relatively flat year over year. If the stock is down I invest more, if the card market is down I can afford to buy more with my budget at that time but the budget doesn’t increase.
When my Banks rookie is up 500+% in 6 years it’s a plus but my collection is just a hobby, it isn’t part of my retirement account. So no the stock market doesn’t affect my vintage purchases.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't doubt it, but would be curious to see that data, where are you getting it?

Peter, when I was actively writing a price guide for boxing cards I amassed data every year for the new edition. I noticed that in the Great Recession, the mess really got under way in the summer of 2008 as the real estate market imploded but boxing auctions still did really well into 2009. Then things started to fizzle out. I saw a bottom of the market in Fall 2010, and it was stable for a few years then slowly built back. That tracked with my experiences buying cards for the PC and trying to sell in 1990 and 2001.

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by LEHR

I voted yes.

The more the market goes down the more I'm putting in the market instead of hobbies.

Me as well and I hope we are right..

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

Me as well and I hope we are right..

Decades worth of data and history will prove it to be so.

[parkplace33]

I think the party of the last three years is over. It will be a buyers market for a while.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by EddieP

Yes. If the stock market is tanking, I’ m not buying cards. I’m buying stocks.

+1

[japhi]

Consumer behavior is funny, when asset values are rising we get FOMO and act irrational. Down markets, that psychology is the opposite, consumer spending grinds to a halt when RE, equities get hammered. House appraised at 100K less, investments down another 200K, and cost to carry any debt up significantly? Turns out we aren't as rich as we thought we were.

Bottom is about to fall out on a wide range of assets, should be very interesting to see how the hobby reacts.

Personally, I will be a buyer, following a number of cards that are 20-30% off peak and hoping they go lower.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Consumer behavior is funny, when asset values are rising we get FOMO and act irrational. Down markets, that psychology is the opposite, consumer spending grinds to a halt when RE, equities get hammered. House appraised at 100K less, investments down another 200K, and cost to carry any debt up significantly? Turns out we aren't as rich as we thought we were.

Bottom is about to fall out on a wide range of assets, should be very interesting to see how the hobby reacts.

Personally, I will be a buyer, following a number of cards that are 20-30% off peak and hoping they go lower.

Boom

[carlsonjok]

There isn't any change in my hobby behavior because my hobby spending is probably less than 2% of our net monthly income, and my collection is probably about 1% of our net worth. I grew up with middle class, but frugal, parents and I am pretty much the same. I've never spent more than $400 on a card and, even then, it took herculean effort to open my wallet.

I did fairly well sitting on cash and pushing it into equities in the COVID crash. My expectations is, like others, we are entering a bear market as the Fed grapples with (hopefully) transitory inflation, and I'll do the same again. With 8-10 years to retirement, I can ride a long term bear market.

[parkplace33]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/infl...vey-shows.html

Consumers grew a little more optimistic about inflation in April, though they still expect to be spending considerably more in the year ahead, a Federal Reserve survey released Monday shows.

Inflation expectations over the next year fell to a median 6.3%, a 0.3 percentage-point decrease from the record high in March, according to data going back to June 2013. On a three-year basis, expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.9%, which itself is 0.3 percentage point off the record.

The data comes with 12-month inflation in March running at 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981. April consumer prices are due to be reported on Wednesday.


Lets see what is released on Wednesday.

I do expect more card price volatility this summer, ultimately trending downward. I think for the average collectors, cards are not going to be a priority for the next few months.

[Johnny630]

Cash Will Be King at this Years National, Bank On It !!!! Especially come middle Saturday.

Get your shopping list ready.

Cash is king especially at this years National, a lot of dealers are over levered and possibly underwater on cards.