Why has market gone crazy? And outlook?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I prefer cash for the purchasing power it gives me via private sales in person from collectors or at shows from dealers. Over the years it’s been one of the only few ways I’ve been able to purchase big collections or single cards from private collectors. They want cash.

translation...no one likes/wants to pay taxes!

[nwobhm]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

translation...no one likes/wants to pay taxes!

or little buyer recourse, or no bad checks.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

translation...no one likes/wants to pay taxes!

Bingo!!!!!!!!

[sportscardpete]

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

I have struggled with this myself. Especially with certain cards. I don't want to feel like I have to sell some of my other cards to afford ones with the current markets prices. The end result is me picking and choosing my spots and where and what I collect.

I also know that I'll be able to prioritize collecting eventually, but it's going to take decades at this point.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

My brother and I have been saying this for the last couple of years to each other whenever we talk cards. We'd much rather our collections be worth way less if the cards we want to add to them also cost way less.

I really don't get excited about the rising value of things I never want to sell, but I do get bummed by the rising value of things I want to buy. Plus, when things reach a certain level of value, one almost feels obligated to be "responsible" and keep at least one eye on value, if a sale could move the quality of life needle even a little bit.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by MattyC

My brother and I have been saying this for the last couple of years to each other whenever we talk cards. We'd much rather our collections be worth way less if the cards we want to add to them also cost way less.

I really don't get excited about the rising value of things I never want to sell, but I do get bummed by the rising value of things I want to buy. Plus, when things reach a certain level of value, one almost feels obligated to be "responsible" and keep at least one eye on value, if a sale could move the quality of life needle even a little bit.

Absolutely agree. I always remind myself that it's better for my financial future for card prices to go down rather than up, since I intend to buy but not to sell.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

It does. 5-10 years ago so much I could have bought that is likely out of reach forever. Goudey Ruths PSA 7s and 8s. 1921 Exhibit Ruths. So much amazing stuff. I just can't bring myself to buy a poor bashed up version of something for the same price tag that I could have gotten it near mint 5 years ago.

Find myself now more picking around for cool memorabilia and photos that are more meaningful to me anyway.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

It does. 5-10 years ago so much I could have bought that is likely out of reach forever. Goudey Ruths PSA 7s and 8s. 1921 Exhibit Ruths. So much amazing stuff. I just can't bring myself to buy a poor bashed up version of something for the same price tag that I could have gotten it near mint 5 years ago.

Find myself now more picking around for cool memorabilia and photos that are more meaningful to me anyway.

+1 Agree. The future buys for a collection become less often and less than i would have bought
Also now trying to look at other items related to my collection focus they are more affordable(for now although those items like ticket stubs, photos, scorecards are all exploding in price also)

[Carter08]

Obviously no one can predict with any certainty but my thought - and I hope I’m right here - is that the high grades continuing to climb helps the lower grades too. Pulls them up along for the ride.

[molenick]

The memorabilia market did exactly the opposite of what I thought it would do when the pandemic started and then the stock market cratered. Why would people want to buy assets that are not income-generating and are not necessities (like food, lodging, medicine, etc.)? I really thought there would be a major drop in price because people would start to question the underlying concept of "this piece of cardboard is worth a lot of money because of who is on it and how sharp the corners are". Because when you stop and think about it, it doesn't make any sense (shhhh....don't tell anybody).

I guess stimulus checks helped but these were not enough for multi-thousand dollar purchases and (I thought) went to people making less than a certain annual income. And saving a vacation payment or commuting costs doesn't translate into the major increases on high-end cards (although I guess on lower-end cards it may have).

Since supply did not go up, demand obviously increased...a lot. I have no idea why. I'm not a card millionaire on paper but the value of my collection has increased based on VCP while my ability to buy cards has decreased. So I am caught (like most of us are) between "glad I have what I have" and "I need to lower my standards if I want to add anything else" (or part with some of my collection to fund future purchases).

[japhi]

Q1 GDP was negative 1.4%. I believe we are in for some interesting times - QE winding down, 7-8 interest rate hikes, wild inflation. Card market is already contracting (broadly, doesn't mean what you collect is).

Personally I won't be making any big card or other consumer purchases, highly suspect there be many folks caught naked (over leveraged) when this tide goes out. Toys will be going on sale soon.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Q1 GDP was negative 1.4%. I believe we are in for some interesting times - QE winding down, 7-8 interest rate hikes, wild inflation. Card market is already contracting (broadly, doesn't mean what you collect is).

Personally I won't be making any big card or other consumer purchases, highly suspect there be many folks caught naked (over leveraged) when this tide goes out. Toys will be going on sale soon.

I have been thinking this way for 2 years and have been dead wrong.

Middle and low grade cards have pulled back because this inflation is affecting the middle class ..... conversely inflation has little to no affect on 5 and 6 figure buyers on Mile High, REA, and just wait till Memory Lane. Higher Higher and Higher a 53 Mantle PSA 7 sold for 47k along with a SGC 7.5 Mantle selling for over 15k in REA's last auction.

The rich get richer...the poor get poorer... and the middle class pay more and will spend less. Cards are still bullish IMO just not low and middle grade.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I have been thinking this way for 2 years and have been dead wrong.

Middle and low grade cards have pulled back because this inflation is affecting the middle class ..... conversely inflation has little to no affect on 5 and 6 figure buyers on Mile High, REA, and just wait till Memory Lane. Higher Higher and Higher a 53 Mantle PSA 7 sold for 47k along with a SGC 7.5 Mantle selling for over 15k in REA's last auction.

The rich get richer...the poor get poorer... and the middle class pay more and will spend less. Cards are still bullish IMO just not low and middle grade.

Lots of high value cards are WAY off ATH's. Mostly modern, mostly BKB, but upwards of 80% declines.

Recency bias says says that assets like cards, homes, art, vehicles will go up forever but we know that isn't true. Can't think of an asset class that doesn't correct periodically, and the correction is typically in proportion to the run up. We are way overdue for a big reset.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Lots of high value cards are WAY off ATH's. Mostly modern, mostly BKB, but upwards of 80% declines.

Recency bias says says that assets like cards, homes, art, vehicles will go up forever but we know that isn't true. Can't think of an asset class that doesn't correct periodically, and the correction is typically in proportion to the run up. We are way overdue for a big reset.

Correction yes...big reset I do not see in higher grade vintage. To much big money is hedged in this now...idk I could be wrong. LoL either way very cool having this conversation, I like your thinking.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by japhi

Lots of high value cards are WAY off ATH's. Mostly modern, mostly BKB, but upwards of 80% declines.

Recency bias says says that assets like cards, homes, art, vehicles will go up forever but we know that isn't true. Can't think of an asset class that doesn't correct periodically, and the correction is typically in proportion to the run up. We are way overdue for a big reset.

When has that EVER happened with blue chip cards...flattening and some pull back yes, but no one has ever taken a bath on T206 cobb or 33 Goudey Ruth.

Correct me if I am wrong.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by joshleon

When has that EVER happened with blue chip cards...flattening and some pull back yes, but no one has ever taken a bath on T206 cobb or 33 Goudey Ruth.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Never wrong, just early.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by joshleon

When has that EVER happened with blue chip cards...flattening and some pull back yes, but no one has ever taken a bath on T206 cobb or 33 Goudey Ruth.

Correct me if I am wrong.

I don’t follow those cards but there are lots of cards like 86 Jordan, DR J rook that are more then 50% off ATH’s. Broadly, the card market is way off ATH’s.