Why has market gone crazy? And outlook?

[sportscardpete]

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

I have struggled with this myself. Especially with certain cards. I don't want to feel like I have to sell some of my other cards to afford ones with the current markets prices. The end result is me picking and choosing my spots and where and what I collect.

I also know that I'll be able to prioritize collecting eventually, but it's going to take decades at this point.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

My brother and I have been saying this for the last couple of years to each other whenever we talk cards. We'd much rather our collections be worth way less if the cards we want to add to them also cost way less.

I really don't get excited about the rising value of things I never want to sell, but I do get bummed by the rising value of things I want to buy. Plus, when things reach a certain level of value, one almost feels obligated to be "responsible" and keep at least one eye on value, if a sale could move the quality of life needle even a little bit.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by MattyC

My brother and I have been saying this for the last couple of years to each other whenever we talk cards. We'd much rather our collections be worth way less if the cards we want to add to them also cost way less.

I really don't get excited about the rising value of things I never want to sell, but I do get bummed by the rising value of things I want to buy. Plus, when things reach a certain level of value, one almost feels obligated to be "responsible" and keep at least one eye on value, if a sale could move the quality of life needle even a little bit.

Absolutely agree. I always remind myself that it's better for my financial future for card prices to go down rather than up, since I intend to buy but not to sell.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

How does one balance the feeling of seeing their existing collection's value grow but putting future cards out of reach?

I really hate to say this, but it sucks. Sure it is great some cards shot up in value but it ends up being net-net pretty terrible for people actively building a collection.

It does. 5-10 years ago so much I could have bought that is likely out of reach forever. Goudey Ruths PSA 7s and 8s. 1921 Exhibit Ruths. So much amazing stuff. I just can't bring myself to buy a poor bashed up version of something for the same price tag that I could have gotten it near mint 5 years ago.

Find myself now more picking around for cool memorabilia and photos that are more meaningful to me anyway.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

It does. 5-10 years ago so much I could have bought that is likely out of reach forever. Goudey Ruths PSA 7s and 8s. 1921 Exhibit Ruths. So much amazing stuff. I just can't bring myself to buy a poor bashed up version of something for the same price tag that I could have gotten it near mint 5 years ago.

Find myself now more picking around for cool memorabilia and photos that are more meaningful to me anyway.

+1 Agree. The future buys for a collection become less often and less than i would have bought
Also now trying to look at other items related to my collection focus they are more affordable(for now although those items like ticket stubs, photos, scorecards are all exploding in price also)

[Carter08]

Obviously no one can predict with any certainty but my thought - and I hope I’m right here - is that the high grades continuing to climb helps the lower grades too. Pulls them up along for the ride.

[molenick]

The memorabilia market did exactly the opposite of what I thought it would do when the pandemic started and then the stock market cratered. Why would people want to buy assets that are not income-generating and are not necessities (like food, lodging, medicine, etc.)? I really thought there would be a major drop in price because people would start to question the underlying concept of "this piece of cardboard is worth a lot of money because of who is on it and how sharp the corners are". Because when you stop and think about it, it doesn't make any sense (shhhh....don't tell anybody).

I guess stimulus checks helped but these were not enough for multi-thousand dollar purchases and (I thought) went to people making less than a certain annual income. And saving a vacation payment or commuting costs doesn't translate into the major increases on high-end cards (although I guess on lower-end cards it may have).

Since supply did not go up, demand obviously increased...a lot. I have no idea why. I'm not a card millionaire on paper but the value of my collection has increased based on VCP while my ability to buy cards has decreased. So I am caught (like most of us are) between "glad I have what I have" and "I need to lower my standards if I want to add anything else" (or part with some of my collection to fund future purchases).

[japhi]

Demand on everything increased due to easy access to cheap money. The stimulus cheques were great but how many people saw their house appreciate by 100k? Lots, and people leveraged up. Literally everything ran hot. So hot that we can expect money to get significantly more expensive and if the Fed ian’t careful a possible recession.

Not a doomer take but money was cheap and east and folks blew their brains out on debt. That debt is about to get significantly more expensive. Asset prices will follow.

[molenick]

Okay, I hear that. The value of my house went up as well, but that didn't affect my spending. I guess in theory I could have taken out a home equity loan to buy cards or bought cards using my credit card. I didn't, but maybe others did. I am trying very hard to stay away from politics and economic theory because I am not interested in discussing the former on the board and don't know anything about the latter.

So I guess I am left with: I don't know why it happened and don't know what will happen next. But I still love collecting! I just have to collect differently than I used to.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by japhi

Demand on everything increased due to easy access to cheap money. The stimulus cheques were great but how many people saw their house appreciate by 100k? Lots, and people leveraged up. Literally everything ran hot. So hot that we can expect money to get significantly more expensive and if the Fed ian’t careful a possible recession.

Not a doomer take but money was cheap and east and folks blew their brains out on debt. That debt is about to get significantly more expensive. Asset prices will follow.

Sounds good, but It doesn't look like the Fed data supports that theory in relation to taking on debt to finance cards.

HELOC loans dropped by $45B from Q3 2020 to Q3 2021. Credit card debt dropped by $3B. Autos up $80B.
New mortgages (not cash out refi) jumped as people took advantage of the low rates and jump in equity to sell and move up. Here, I believe you are right. The piper is coming.

Once people that didn't 'need' the money realized such, most paid off debt or saved it. Those who needed it, used it for those needs.

*Opinion* The people who used "cheap money" to purchase cards (and meme stocks and crypto) are the same who would use a payday loan to go to a casino.

There aren't many, and they surely could not move the market.