Dave Parker - HOF?

G1911 · #1 04-13-2022, 12:29 PM

I tend to think the modern analytics has it correct, strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense. However, most pitching metrics continue to heavily weight strikeouts. If strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense, then they are also not that helpful to the defense.

Snapolit1 · #2 04-13-2022, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I tend to think the modern analytics has it correct, strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense. However, most pitching metrics continue to heavily weight strikeouts. If strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense, then they are also not that helpful to the defense.

A lot of great pitchers over the years have said they only got great when they came to realize that they didn�t need to strike everyone out.

HistoricNewspapers · #3 04-13-2022, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

A lot of great pitchers over the years have said they only got great when they came to realize that they didn’t need to strike everyone out.

Yet still struck them out. That has to do more with command. They got great by limiting the baserunners and home runs. When you limit the baserunners and home runs then it doesn't matter how many you strike out or not, just like in hitting.

The more BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, and HR you get, the better you become....even if you struck out in every single out you made, it wouldn't matter as long as you are getting the most BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, and HR.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #4 04-13-2022, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I tend to think the modern analytics has it correct, strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense. However, most pitching metrics continue to heavily weight strikeouts. If strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense, then they are also not that helpful to the defense.

because any time you avoid contact as a pitcher you lessen the chance of a negative outcome for you.

HistoricNewspapers · #5 04-13-2022, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

because any time you avoid contact as a pitcher you lessen the chance of a negative outcome for you.

Also, the reason why pitcher strikeouts are viewed a little differently than hitters strikeout is that pitcher strikeouts are a good indicator that the skill of getting the batter out was close to 100% done by the pitcher when it was a strikeout, whereas, if a pitcher induces a ground out, then the fielding ability becomes a factor into how much the pitcher or fielder was responsible for the out.

That comes into play when predicting future performance of a pitcher. That is why when measuring a pitcher, when you look at their strikeout and walk ratios that is a good indicator of how good they are as opposed to if it was good defense behind them. Same for home runs allowed by a pitcher. Home runs allowed by a pitcher removes teams' defensive ability from the equation.

That doesn't mean that pitchers can't induce weak contact too, because they can, and some can repeat that year after year...but it is not on the same level of predictability as strikeout to walk ratio and home runs allowed.

G1911 · #6 04-13-2022, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

because any time you avoid contact as a pitcher you lessen the chance of a negative outcome for you.

Yes, I understand that. I am saying it is not really possible, in a direct conflict between hitter and pitcher, for an event to be almost insignificantly harmful to the offense but hugely beneficial to the defense. That makes no logical sense. If it doesn�t really hurt the offense much, then it cannot help the defense much.

HistoricNewspapers · #7 04-13-2022, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

Yes, I understand that. I am saying it is not really possible, in a direct conflict between hitter and pitcher, for an event to be almost insignificantly harmful to the offense but hugely beneficial to the defense. That makes no logical sense. If it doesn�t really hurt the offense much, then it cannot help the defense much.

The reason why pitcher strikeouts are viewed a little differently than hitters strikeout is that pitcher strikeouts are a good indicator that the skill of getting the batter out was close to 100% done by the pitcher when it was a strikeout, whereas, if a pitcher induces a ground out, then the fielding ability becomes a factor into how much the pitcher or fielder was responsible for the out.

That comes into play when predicting future performance of a pitcher. That is why when measuring a pitcher, when you look at their strikeout and walk ratios that is a good indicator of how good they are as opposed to if it was good defense behind them. Same for home runs allowed by a pitcher. Home runs allowed by a pitcher removes teams' defensive ability from the equation.

That doesn't mean that pitchers can't induce weak contact too, because they can, and some can repeat that year after year...but it is not on the same level of predictability as strikeout to walk ratio and home runs allowed.

Other than that, from the pitcher's perspective, an out is still just an out whether a ground out or strikeout occurs. What it comes down to is limiting baseruners and limiting home runs. The better you are at that, the better pitcher you will be. That is why someone like Greg Maddux was superior to Nolan Ryan despite that vast difference in strikeouts.

Same for hitters, it comes down to getting on base and getting on base efficiently(done in the least amount of outs made with the most amount of bases taken in one plate appearance).

Hitting the most home runs while making the least amount of outs is the most optimal way of hitting.

Then you have a sliding scale of hitters who get the most BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR while making the least amount of outs....and it may make a 2% difference if the outs are batted ball outs or strikeouts, because what really matters is how many HR, 3B, 2B, 1B, and BB you get with home being the obvious most valuable in that line of importance.

G1911 · #8 04-13-2022, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HistoricNewspapers

The reason why pitcher strikeouts are viewed a little differently than hitters strikeout is that pitcher strikeouts are a good indicator that the skill of getting the batter out was close to 100% done by the pitcher when it was a strikeout, whereas, if a pitcher induces a ground out, then the fielding ability becomes a factor into how much the pitcher or fielder was responsible for the out.

That comes into play when predicting future performance of a pitcher. That is why when measuring a pitcher, when you look at their strikeout and walk ratios that is a good indicator of how good they are as opposed to if it was good defense behind them. Same for home runs allowed by a pitcher. Home runs allowed by a pitcher removes teams' defensive ability from the equation.

That doesn't mean that pitchers can't induce weak contact too, because they can, and some can repeat that year after year...but it is not on the same level of predictability as strikeout to walk ratio and home runs allowed.

Other than that, from the pitcher's perspective, an out is still just an out whether a ground out or strikeout occurs. What it comes down to is limiting baseruners and limiting home runs. The better you are at that, the better pitcher you will be. That is why someone like Greg Maddux was superior to Nolan Ryan despite that vast difference in strikeouts.

Same for hitters, it comes down to getting on base and getting on base efficiently(done in the least amount of outs made with the most amount of bases taken in one plate appearance).

Hitting the most home runs while making the least amount of outs is the most optimal way of hitting.

Then you have a sliding scale of hitters who get the most BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR while making the least amount of outs....and it may make a 2% difference if the outs are batted ball outs or strikeouts, because what really matters is how many HR, 3B, 2B, 1B, and BB you get with home being the obvious most valuable in that line of importance.

I�m fully aware that a strikeout is a credit to the pitcher (or a debit to the hitter). Not striking out is similarly a credit to the batters eye and pitch waiting.

An out is an out most of the time, the hitting metrics recognize the K has little actual value these days. If this is true, then it is not logically possible in a directly adversarial game for the K to have great value to the defense. Yet the advanced analytics for pitchers tend to focus heavily on the K, it�s a big part of why pitchers accumulate WAR faster now, because it favors the K for pitchers without an equal punishment for batters in an era where hitters don�t care about whiffing 150 times a year. This isn�t logical in a direct adversarial game if a strikeout barely hurts the hitter. It either is significant to both, or it is not significant to either when we are measuring what produces wins. Outcome A can not logically be significant to Team A�s winning odds but insignificant to Team B�s winning odds when there are two teams.

D. Bergin · #9 04-13-2022, 02:44 PM

More batted balls, leads to more errors and puts more pressure on a defense. 1 error can swing a game one way or another.

I don't know if any of that is true or not, but it sounds pretty good in my head.

HistoricNewspapers · #10 04-13-2022, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

More batted balls, leads to more errors and puts more pressure on a defense. 1 error can swing a game one way or another.

I don't know if any of that is true or not, but it sounds pretty good in my head.

Ironically, it is often the guys who strike out a lot who reach base just as frequently on errors because they hit the ball harder on their contact.
Those guys and the super speedy guys.

LH batters have an advantage in that area as well.

HistoricNewspapers · #11 04-13-2022, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I’m fully aware that a strikeout is a credit to the pitcher (or a debit to the hitter). Not striking out is similarly a credit to the batters eye and pitch waiting.

An out is an out most of the time, the hitting metrics recognize the K has little actual value these days. If this is true, then it is not logically possible in a directly adversarial game for the K to have great value to the defense. Yet the advanced analytics for pitchers tend to focus heavily on the K, it’s a big part of why pitchers accumulate WAR faster now, because it favors the K for pitchers without an equal punishment for batters in an era where hitters don’t care about whiffing 150 times a year. This isn’t logical in a direct adversarial game if a strikeout barely hurts the hitter. It either is significant to both, or it is not significant to either when we are measuring what produces wins. Outcome A can not logically be significant to Team A’s winning odds but insignificant to Team B’s winning odds when there are two teams.

That is because WAR is isolating the factors that are fully known to be in the pitchers control as opposed to in the control of the defense behind them....and they are giving a bigger validity factor to the pitchers that are producing a high level of K/BB ratio and home runs allowed, because they know that the pitcher is in control of those.

Basically, they are ignoring weak contact allowed by the pitcher and putting all contact in play into the hands of the defense.

They then try to add how much the defense was a factor in how many runs were allowed and that is when things go haywire because it is extremely hard to do that and you can get a lot of odd results in pitcher WAR.

WAR for pitchers is awful. It is hard enough to measure the value of a single defender, let alone measure an entire team defense and try to decipher if weak contact outs were the product of the pitcher or the defense.

darwinbulldog · #12 04-13-2022, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G1911

I tend to think the modern analytics has it correct, strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense. However, most pitching metrics continue to heavily weight strikeouts. If strikeouts are not that detrimental to the offense, then they are also not that helpful to the defense.

Absolutely. This is why you won't find a GM looking to trade for the next Nolan Ryan. Sure fun to watch, but you'll get more wins with a Maddux.

D. Bergin · #13 04-13-2022, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Absolutely. This is why you won't find a GM looking to trade for the next Nolan Ryan. Sure fun to watch, but you'll get more wins with a Maddux.

I think a GM would be ecstatic to trade for the next Nolan Ryan. Kevin Gausman gets $21-23 Million a year based on one passable season out of 10.

Nolan would only have to go 5 or 6 innings a game. He'd be able to throw even harder, and snap that curveball even sharper then he already did.

Modern coaching would likely be able to shave the walk rate he was cursed with the 1st half of his career, down a bit in the process to.

Yeah, Maddux was better...but that's a pretty high bar.

HistoricNewspapers · #14 04-13-2022, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I think a GM would be ecstatic to trade for the next Nolan Ryan. Kevin Gausman gets $21-23 Million a year based on one passable season out of 10.

Nolan would only have to go 5 or 6 innings a game. He'd be able to throw even harder, and snap that curveball even sharper then he already did.

Modern coaching would likely be able to shave the walk rate he was cursed with the 1st half of his career, down a bit in the process to.

Yeah, Maddux was better...but that's a pretty high bar.

Actually, GM's ARE looking for pitchers like Nolan Ryan and want to do exactly what you said...teach them command.

Ryan may actually be the beginning of what the modern game is looking for. He is a pioneer of sorts in that way.

There are a lot of guys with his arsenal now and with command already engrained in them though.

However, Ryan would be a victim of limited innings too because that is more of a strategy being employed as opposed to the modern pitcher's ability/inability to pitch more innings.

The higher velocity a ball is coming greatly increases the chances are that it will not be hit. That is why GM's want guys who can throw hard. It doesn't mean that a strikeout is much different that a batted ball out...its just that pitchers who throw so hard are going to induce more strikeouts by virtue that it is harder to hit higher velocity pitches located in the same place as lower velocity pitches. So it produces more outs.'

Nolan Ryan had a modern arsenal of pitches with lesser command and guys 'back in the day' were striking out left and right vs him too...and those guys are supposedly 'contact' kings compared to now, yet they struck out just as much agains the type of velocity seen today, its just that not as many back then had it.

On the flip side, hitters do have to sell out more as well because of the number of flame throwers now, so they do sacrifice more strikeouts.

Peter_Spaeth · #15 04-14-2022, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HistoricNewspapers

Actually, GM's ARE looking for pitchers like Nolan Ryan and want to do exactly what you said...teach them command.

Ryan may actually be the beginning of what the modern game is looking for. He is a pioneer of sorts in that way.

There are a lot of guys with his arsenal now and with command already engrained in them though.

However, Ryan would be a victim of limited innings too because that is more of a strategy being employed as opposed to the modern pitcher's ability/inability to pitch more innings.

The higher velocity a ball is coming greatly increases the chances are that it will not be hit. That is why GM's want guys who can throw hard. It doesn't mean that a strikeout is much different that a batted ball out...its just that pitchers who throw so hard are going to induce more strikeouts by virtue that it is harder to hit higher velocity pitches located in the same place as lower velocity pitches. So it produces more outs.'

Nolan Ryan had a modern arsenal of pitches with lesser command and guys 'back in the day' were striking out left and right vs him too...and those guys are supposedly 'contact' kings compared to now, yet they struck out just as much agains the type of velocity seen today, its just that not as many back then had it.

On the flip side, hitters do have to sell out more as well because of the number of flame throwers now, so they do sacrifice more strikeouts.

Yeah he just didn't have consistent control especially of his curve which was his great negative. When he did, he was dominant.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #16 04-14-2022, 12:57 PM

If someone wants Dave Parker in what are their thoughts on Rocky Colavito? Better Power numbers in a bad power hitting era and very similar in the field. Average fielder with canon arm. (or Roy Sievers, Frank Howard, George Foster, Jack Clark ad infinitum)

Peter_Spaeth · #17 04-14-2022, 01:14 PM

Similar batters, according to Baseball Reference. I would not have guessed Torii Hunter hit 350 HR.

Similar Batters
Luis Gonzalez (907.1)
Torii Hunter (906.8)
Tony Perez (895.7) *
Billy Williams (883.9) *
Garret Anderson (874.5)
Harold Baines (871.6) *
Andre Dawson (865.2) *
Al Oliver (862.7)
Chili Davis (859.1)
Rusty Staub (857.1)

Jason19th · #18 04-14-2022, 04:03 PM

[QUOTE=D. Bergin;2215002]I think a GM would be ecstatic to trade for the next Nolan Ryan. Kevin Gausman gets $21-23 Million a year based on one passable season out of 10.

Nolan would only have to go 5 or 6 innings a game. He'd be able to throw even harder, and snap that curveball even sharper then he already did.

Modern coaching would likely be able to shave the walk rate he was cursed with the 1st half of his career, down a bit in the process to.

I would argue that Nolan�s walk rate has nothing to do with control. I believe- and I may be stealing some of this from Bill James- that it was Nolan�s ego that lead to his walks. He was obsessed with limiting hits. He refused to give anyone anything to hit ever. While this got him lots of glory and no hitters it also lead to the insane pitch counts, the super high walk rates and his very mediocre era�s. He would have rather had an inning where he threw 40 pitches to get three walks and 3 strike outs then to risk giving up a hit. A lot of people seem to celebrate this. I don�t understand the adoration.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #19 04-14-2022, 06:07 PM

[QUOTE=Jason19th;2215347]

Quote:

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I would argue that Nolan�s walk rate has nothing to do with control. I believe- and I may be stealing some of this from Bill James- that it was Nolan�s ego that lead to his walks. He was obsessed with limiting hits. He refused to give anyone anything to hit ever. While this got him lots of glory and no hitters it also lead to the insane pitch counts, the super high walk rates and his very mediocre era�s. He would have rather had an inning where he threw 40 pitches to get three walks and 3 strike outs then to risk giving up a hit. A lot of people seem to celebrate this. I don�t understand the adoration.

Not sure I buy this as his walk rate was almost always steadily improving through his career. In his last 9 full seasons he had 8 of his best BB/9 rates.

Aquarian Sports Cards · #20 04-14-2022, 06:20 PM

[QUOTE=Jason19th;2215347]

Quote:

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I would argue that Nolan�s walk rate has nothing to do with control. I believe- and I may be stealing some of this from Bill James- that it was Nolan�s ego that lead to his walks. He was obsessed with limiting hits. He refused to give anyone anything to hit ever. While this got him lots of glory and no hitters it also lead to the insane pitch counts, the super high walk rates and his very mediocre era�s. He would have rather had an inning where he threw 40 pitches to get three walks and 3 strike outs then to risk giving up a hit. A lot of people seem to celebrate this. I don�t understand the adoration.

Not sure I buy this as his walk rate was almost always steadily improving through his career. In his last 9 full seasons he had 8 of his best BB/9 rates.

D. Bergin · #21 04-14-2022, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I think a GM would be ecstatic to trade for the next Nolan Ryan. Kevin Gausman gets $21-23 Million a year based on one passable season out of 10.

Nolan would only have to go 5 or 6 innings a game. He'd be able to throw even harder, and snap that curveball even sharper then he already did.

Modern coaching would likely be able to shave the walk rate he was cursed with the 1st half of his career, down a bit in the process to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason19th

I would argue that Nolan�s walk rate has nothing to do with control. I believe- and I may be stealing some of this from Bill James- that it was Nolan�s ego that lead to his walks. He was obsessed with limiting hits. He refused to give anyone anything to hit ever. While this got him lots of glory and no hitters it also lead to the insane pitch counts, the super high walk rates and his very mediocre era�s. He would have rather had an inning where he threw 40 pitches to get three walks and 3 strike outs then to risk giving up a hit. A lot of people seem to celebrate this. I don�t understand the adoration.

Well giving up a Walk, IS better then giving up a hit, and his ego must have lessened throughout his career, because by the 2nd half of his career he had a pretty respectable walk rate.

Mediocre ERA? I mean, he had some up and down years, but he won 2 ERA titles, and was Top 7 in the league 8 different years.

Was also Top 10 in WHIP (hits/walks combined) 9 times, leading the league twice.

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