Under The Radar Basketball Cards (investment)

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

Thanks for the reply Peter. That’s really the point: to find reasonably priced cards that are off the radar of some, i.e. not big rookies or vintage stars, both of which are priced out. Looking for items that are obtainable with room to grow.

I understand the point; mine is that IMO a common set of stickers with no rookies does not have a lot of room to grow. But who knows.

[shagrotn77]

I remember those stickers being brutal right out of the pack. Very poor cuts.

[chalupacollects]

Maybe higher grade examples of mid career stars and HOFers....

[Gorditadogg]

I like the stickers, even though they aren't scarce, it sounds like high-grade and centered cards could become more desirable, and there are not a lot of cards anyway of the old NBA stars. And I also like the idea of picking out oddball vintage items, especially in the years without Topps or Fleer issues.

My strategy has always been to buy some of everything and see what happens. I doubt it's the best way to accumulate value but hey, it is the most inclusive.

[Republicaninmass]

Stickers..one per pack. Supposed to be stuck to stuff. Makes sense they'd be desirable in the future

[hauntedcomputer]

To me future "investment" (an iffy word to use in connection with a hobby) will depend on which way newer ultramodern collectors go after getting burned badly on overpriced, overproduced slabs.

Will they go a tier down into 90s inserts, or into the 80s? I would guess Star cards really have good potential in that scenario, but with far too many speculative factors involved (Will PSA ever grade them? Will they ever get mainstream attention? Will AI grading ever be able to accurately detect fake Jordans?). Compared to the 80s stickers, the pops of Star cards are relatively stable and known and rare. Most importantly, those are what I call "gap year" cards that cover some of the greatest. 87 set further hurt by lack of rookies that drive set values and collector appeal.

Or will modern collectors recognize the tremendously rare-in-comparison cards of 48, 57 and 61, players they may know little about? Or will they see 70s basketball as undervalued like I do, but I think their value growth has been pushed forward too much over the past couple of years and basically most cards will be waiting for the next generational boom in 20-30 years.

Probably some of each, but my guess is most will leave the hobby like they did in the 90s crash. So my strategy is to only buy what I like and only spend what I can afford to lose completely. If the market vanishes, I still have what I like and don't have to guess.

Good luck!

[Exhibitman]

The other thing I won't do (and I am a broken record on this but here goes) is rely on condition rarity for long term value. The odds of PSA finding more 10s and 9s of modern mainstream cards among the millions submitted every year are a lot better than the odds of suddenly finding more of the items like those I've scanned. I know, because I am chasing the damned things. That makes modern cards an inherently riskier bet. I actually like the prospects of the Star true RCs better than most modern precisely because the print runs were a tiny fraction of the mainstream cards. I know, demand factors into it, but that would indicate lack of undervaluation.

The above notwithstanding certain marquee cards that are readily available but that have lives of their own as cornerstones of a collection: 1986 Fleer Jordan, 1979 Topps Magic-Bird, 1969 Topps Alcindor, 1961 Fleer Chamberlain, 1957 Topps Russell, 1948 Bowman Mikan. There's probably a LeBron that qualifies but I don't know enough about that era's issues to state which it is.