Under The Radar Basketball Cards (investment)

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The other thing I won't do (and I am a broken record on this but here goes) is rely on condition rarity for long term value. The odds of PSA finding more 10s and 9s of modern mainstream cards among the millions submitted every year are a lot better than the odds of suddenly finding more of the items like those I've scanned. I know, because I am chasing the damned things. That makes modern cards an inherently riskier bet. I actually like the prospects of the Star true RCs better than most modern precisely because the print runs were a tiny fraction of the mainstream cards. I know, demand factors into it, but that would indicate lack of undervaluation.

As per usual stellar advice from Adam in this thread for you.

I would second that early material seems to be undervalued in my mind if you look for auction formats and avoid the high BINs out there. With my son we focus heavily in 61' fleer and prior releases as the supply is somewhat finite. I have tons of pre-50s programs and historical material as it is underappreciated but tons of fun. The 61's and 48's are certainly lower in my perception in the past 8 months or so as the new money has focused on new rookies and releases. Much of that market is falling apart at the seams with even a slightly critical eye as several cases of mass submitters going bankrupt as those sending cards have stopped paying for useless stacks of psa cards now coming back worth a fraction of the grading fees.

The 500 dollar Zion of a year ago is 75, Ja cards are dropping not to lack of talent but saturation. At one point the highest submission at PSA was speculators sending 88 through 90 Jordan's. For example, there are now 33,035 graded 90 fleer Jordans and growing ... in my mind completely worthless. It's a 5 dollar wax box, like hoops and the rest. 1989 - 15,944, in perspective there are only 35,585 1989 Fleer cards graded. That is 44% of the population of the entire set! 1988 - 18,012, 1987 - 15,252...and the beat goes on.

Take those numbers and conservatively double them for graded examples done by Beckett, CSG, SGC, and the others.

Now leaning into the discussion at hand on 87' fleer stickers, 18,422 total graded cards at PSA. Likely at least another 10k with the competition. Admittedly very small populations of 10's due to QC, but in my mind the 9's are not that rare looking at demand.

Which is more likely? That the oversaturation of these sets continues to make waves in a negative way and the realization is that those years are deservedly not special and values plummet as the Millennials can't flip them anymore. Or...that the collapse of that market leads to huge growth in a subsection of sticker inserts?

You can do as you wish, however you used the dreaded "investment" word that pulls in a critical analysis. My thoughts looking at the numbers that continue to grow daily and the waning base...those late 80's-90's sets are paddling on the edge of a very big whirlpool.

Again do what you want, but the word "investment" is never used in my hobby thoughts because then I lose the fun and start buying crap I don't even like.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Again do what you want, but the word "investment" is never used in my hobby thoughts because then I lose the fun and start buying crap I don't even like.

That's a very good point. I only buy what I enjoy. Probably why I don't have boxes of unopened 1986-88 Fleer sitting in a closet, because I remember them being blown out at shows when they were last year's wax. But hey, who wants to be rich, right?

Also true that invoking the "i" word kills the love and inserts the profiteering analysis in its place.

As your examples indicate, modern is incredibly volatile. If you can put away a small stack of the phenom of the year on the cheap, that's a sound play with minimal risk, but paying thousands in the hopes that the next MJ is there, that's a fool's errand.