Hobby Resilience - Long Term

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

I have always said that if those things become our #1 concerns, then surely the currency I used to purchase the worthless ephemera is ALSO worthless. The $ tied up in my Chase account is as worthless as the $ tied up in my Chase card.

I think the hobby is resilient so long as the US is. Any major political upheaval could always change that. I don't see our new overlords caring about pictures of a ball and stick game played during the adolescence of a former country's history.

I don't see any of that as likely and I will continue to "invest."

[parkplace33]

Cards are cards and stocks are stocks. Treat them as different things.

From the great Larry Williams:

“The most common bad habit I have seen in traders – good and bad ones – is the inability to react correctly to market action.”

[Mark17]

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

[Snapolit1]

Interesting about stamps. When I was a kid I loved collecting stamps. Me and my friend used to go to a JC Pennys which had a stamp counter. I loved it. Also went to the Long Island Stamp Dealers (LISDA) show once in a while. As a kid really exciting grown up stuff.
Me and my dad fell in love with the air mail zeppelin stamps. I always wanted him to buy a set of them, which at the time was the astronomical price of I think $900. Fast forward 45 years later. You can get a nice group of them on eBay for about ….. $900. Remarkable. Why haven’t stamps taken off. Americans have lost interest. I think stamps are amazing. I learned so much about America and even world history from collecting stamps. Damn good on identifying world flags even to this day. But as an investment … shit the bed.



[/B]

Originally Posted by Mark17

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

Interesting perspective, thanks for sharing.