Hobby Resilience - Long Term

[RedlegsFan]

#1, people right now under 30 want to know what a mickey mantle is used for, and why Aaron Rogers is still playing at 61 years old.

Obviously we know these statements are out of wack. Mickey Mantle is a person, not an object, and Aaron Rogers is hardly 38 years old. This is the type of thing that leads me to believe vintage cardboard is going to steadily decline. Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters.

The last time i checked, Rocket Mortgage and WellsFargo are holding firm on refusal to accept Nolan Ryan or Jackie Robinson rookies as adequate or acceptable payment. My view may be tough to swallow, as i certainly know there are many on this board who buy-sell cards worth thousands apiece, several time a day. I’m just saying, eventually the hobby underwriters that keep our artificially inflated market afloat will likely remain mortal, and sports card portfolios will be left with nobody to give a flying hoot about Dimaggio. This means they’ll have to decide whether or not they want to be buried with Pete Rose and Gehrig cards, or cut and run. Full disclosure, i believe i will be buried with my cards.

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

$28,000 for a glittery Pokemon card or a mere NBA prospect whose first release rookie card auctions at $16,782 before they even play one game is more than enough evidence to credit my prophecy, the value of my vintage cards will soon perish. Maybe not right away, but soon enough.


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[Exhibitman]

“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose."--Jefferson Burdick

"Show me the money"--every newbie waddling through Target looking for unopened.

Look, every few years someone predicts that cards will end. Hasn't happened in the 50+ years I've been collecting.

[icollectDCsports]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose."--Jefferson Burdick

So beautifully put. That reflects my thoughts as well, but collecting cards -- and also other non-card memorabilia -- although focused on vintage items, helps me connect with not only the past, but also the game at present.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

“A Card Collection is a magic carpet that takes you away from work-a-day cares to havens of relaxing quietude where you can relive the pleasures and adventures of a past day — brought to life in vivid picture and prose."--Jefferson Burdick


Look, every few years someone predicts that cards will end. Hasn't happened in the 50+ years I've been collecting.

Many thanks, Adam, for sharing that gem of a quote from Mr. Burdick.

Right on. Wasn't it just last year that rather young, very successful, entrepreneur spent a tad over $5,000,000 for a gorgeous 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in PSA 9 MINT? When interviewed about it, he said he had wanted this card for many years. He got what he wanted, and he loved what he got.

--- Brian Powell

[BobC]

The "hobby" itself will be fine in the long term. As long as there are people still interested in and playing baseball, there will always be people who will collect and value the cards and memorabilia we've grown to love. From the gist of his opening post though, the OP's title/question for this thread should probably more appropriately have been something along the lines of - "Sports Cards and Memorabilia Investing Resilience - Long Term".

There are currently too many people, with way too much money, invested and tied up in our "hobby" to ever let it just suddenly wither away and die on the vine, so to speak. The only way I could ever see our "hobby" truly dying out is if something like collecting cards was somehow discovered to be a direct cause of some absolutely fatal disease or illness, or the government, for whatever idiotic reason, suddenly decided to ban and make sports card collecting illegal. Even so, it would likely still survive (and likely thrive) on the black (or at least grey) market. It ain't going anywhere anytime soon. If I remember correctly, people still eat blowfish, and it was never hard to find a drink during Prohibition.

For this "hobby" to die out now, it would be indicative of a lot bigger problems and issues throughout the world, the least of which would be worrying about our "hobby" itself.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

#1, people right now under 30 want to know what a mickey mantle is used for, and why Aaron Rogers is still playing at 61 years old.

Obviously we know these statements are out of wack. Mickey Mantle is a person, not an object, and Aaron Rogers is hardly 38 years old. This is the type of thing that leads me to believe vintage cardboard is going to steadily decline. Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters.

The last time i checked, Rocket Mortgage and WellsFargo are holding firm on refusal to accept Nolan Ryan or Jackie Robinson rookies as adequate or acceptable payment. My view may be tough to swallow, as i certainly know there are many on this board who buy-sell cards worth thousands apiece, several time a day. I’m just saying, eventually the hobby underwriters that keep our artificially inflated market afloat will likely remain mortal, and sports card portfolios will be left with nobody to give a flying hoot about Dimaggio. This means they’ll have to decide whether or not they want to be buried with Pete Rose and Gehrig cards, or cut and run. Full disclosure, i believe i will be buried with my cards.

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

$28,000 for a glittery Pokemon card or a mere NBA prospect whose first release rookie card auctions at $16,782 before they even play one game is more than enough evidence to credit my prophecy, the value of my vintage cards will soon perish. Maybe not right away, but soon enough.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Poetic & interesting post, but a few glaring inaccuracies:

1. Can never treat modern & vintage the same or similarly in any market analysis.

2. The folks who are focused on feeding the children & keeping the wife warm are not the folks buying T206 Cobbs and 1933 Goudey Ruth’s.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

2. The folks who are focused on feeding the children & keeping the wife warm are not the folks buying T206 Cobbs and 1933 Goudey Ruth’s.

I would think so, but every now and then I will see someone selling a $5k card saying they need the money for an unplanned expense such as a major auto repair. Makes me wonder.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

I would think so, but every now and then I will see someone selling a $5k card saying they need the money for an unplanned expense such as a major auto repair. Makes me wonder.

What does it make you wonder about?

[Foo3112]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

What does it make you wonder about?

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Foo3112

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

Good answer.

But if you have to ask

[Johnny630]

I have noticed over the past year and a half there is a major divergence in price cards sell for at AH’s vs Card Shows.

I’ve found most at shows other then the National that people Aren’t Dropping 5 figures on Graded cards at shows, not happening. People are being smart at shows buying mid level Graded and Raw. They’re not spending at shows like that people are definitely being careful.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Foo3112

I didn't write that but I'm guessing that people should have some sort of an emergency savings account rather than spending every single dollar on cards.

True, the numbers on how many Americans wouldn't be able to come up with $400 for an emergency are mind-boggling, but cards (and other sports collectibles) have actually proven to be a pretty good repository of value to meet unexpected expenses. Several times they have been just that for me.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

Though finite, vintage cards are only of a fiat value measured in a fiat currency. And neither cards or currency can feed the children, or keep the wife warm in winters. Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Now you're getting apocalyptic on us. You could say the same about cash, gold, diamonds, etc. Under those circumstances, we'll be burning Wagners for warmth.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by RedlegsFan

Unless i can defend my family with it, transport my children to safety with it, use it to slay a marauder, eat it, or live underneath it, i don’t bank on it.

I have always said that if those things become our #1 concerns, then surely the currency I used to purchase the worthless ephemera is ALSO worthless. The $ tied up in my Chase account is as worthless as the $ tied up in my Chase card.

I think the hobby is resilient so long as the US is. Any major political upheaval could always change that. I don't see our new overlords caring about pictures of a ball and stick game played during the adolescence of a former country's history.

I don't see any of that as likely and I will continue to "invest."

[parkplace33]

Cards are cards and stocks are stocks. Treat them as different things.

From the great Larry Williams:

“The most common bad habit I have seen in traders – good and bad ones – is the inability to react correctly to market action.”

[Mark17]

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

[Snapolit1]

Interesting about stamps. When I was a kid I loved collecting stamps. Me and my friend used to go to a JC Pennys which had a stamp counter. I loved it. Also went to the Long Island Stamp Dealers (LISDA) show once in a while. As a kid really exciting grown up stuff.
Me and my dad fell in love with the air mail zeppelin stamps. I always wanted him to buy a set of them, which at the time was the astronomical price of I think $900. Fast forward 45 years later. You can get a nice group of them on eBay for about ….. $900. Remarkable. Why haven’t stamps taken off. Americans have lost interest. I think stamps are amazing. I learned so much about America and even world history from collecting stamps. Damn good on identifying world flags even to this day. But as an investment … shit the bed.



[/B]

Originally Posted by Mark17

When I was a kid in the 1960s, I collected baseball cards, stamps, coins, bottle caps (with Twins players on the inside liner,) and a few other types of cards and other things. "Everybody" knew that only the coins and stamps were worthwhile long term. I would go to Woolworth's, where they had coin and stamps in large glass displays, hinged on the wall so you could page through them. I frequently would spend 35 to 40 cents for a plate block of 4 stamps from the 1950s mostly - so, 4 3 cent stamps plus the border showing the plate number.

My parents were pleased to see me tucking some of my money away into this long-term investment. Not that they had big expectations for future value, but it was seen as good, on principle, for me to be preserving my money rather than wasting it.

Fast forward 50 years. Last week I made another purchase of postage stamps, which I use for my mail order business. I get them from a guy who bought up very large stamp dealer inventories, and our standard deal, which we've done a half dozen times so far, is $2,000 face value in mint unused stamps, for $1,150 delivered. That's 57.5% of face value, and the seller always gives me a little extra, so more like 55%.

As usual, the stamps I get at that price are heavy in older, low denominations; the same ones I used to collect as a child. Now, I strip off the borders and plate numbers as waste, sort and audit them, and then use them on the packages I send, or offer them in smaller quantities (like 100 different for $10, or 300 diff. for $25) on ebay.

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Bottom line, these stamps, as an investment, have done the following: In 50 years, a plate block of 4 stamps has gone from 35 cents down to about 7 cents. Invest $1,000, wait half a century, and have $200. Add inflation into the calculation (the fact each of those $1,000 original dollars was worth way more than the current $200 that remain) and it's less than $100 in real return.

My conclusion is that the baseball card blue chips will probably hold their value always, but with commons there is no guarantee.

Interesting perspective, thanks for sharing.