I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[Gorditadogg]

Modern cards are a whole lot more volatile because the players' stories are not written yet. Looking at individual cards the gains are higher and the losses too. I think for modern you need to look at a basket of cards and see how the value in total has moved over time. Otherwise it's hard to get a true picture.

For example, 10 years ago I bought two rookie cards for $75 each, one Amare Stoudemire and one Yao Ming. Amare is now worth $25 while Yao just sold for $900. These are two extremes but overall I would guess that basketball card values have increased about 5 times in the last 10 years. A little bit better than baseball maybe, but not much.

But I am more confident in the basketball card market than baseball. Basketball has a global fanbase, with total fans 2-4 times baseball. The average basketball fan is much younger than baseball, and basketball popularity has been increasing over the last several years as baseball popularity has declined.

I think the whole sports card market could go through a correction as part of an overall economic pullback, but I really don't see basketball on the leading edge of it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?

https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/

[drcy]

Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by drcy

Anyone who's collected for decades is keenly aware of the history of fleetingly hot prospect and rookie cards. Pete Incavilia, Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Joe Charmineau, Ki-Jana Carter.

I hope these folks know their history.

But these guys at least were in the major leagues. People are paying $150,000 for a Jasson Dominguez card, who is on the bottom rung of professional baseball. Yikes.

[samosa4u]

It can be pretty crazy to see stuff like this happening - agreed. However, we all know that certain professional athletes have always been very popular although they're not the best or even close to being the best. For example, the most iconic vintage football card in the hobby is the 1965 Topps Joe Namath rookie. The last PSA 9 sold for quarter of a million and this was all the way back in 2018! Today, it could be worth over a million or even two million! Now, is this guy the greatest QB ever? Nope. Top ten? Nope. Top twenty? Nope! See what I mean?

Let's get back to Doncic. If this guy wins only one championship (like Namath), then this card is going to be a winner. Only 99 examples exist out there and the basketball card market is way bigger than football.

Oh my God! Did I just defend modern cards? What the hell is happening to me?

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

It can be pretty crazy to see stuff like this happening - agreed. However, we all know that certain professional athletes have always been very popular although they're not the best or even close to being the best. For example, the most iconic vintage football card in the hobby is the 1965 Topps Joe Namath rookie. The last PSA 9 sold for quarter of a million and this was all the way back in 2018! Today, it could be worth over a million or even two million! Now, is this guy the greatest QB ever? Nope. Top ten? Nope. Top twenty? Nope! See what I mean?

Let's get back to Doncic. If this guy wins only one championship (like Namath), then this card is going to be a winner. Only 99 examples exist out there and the basketball card market is way bigger than football.

Namath's title is possibly the most famous one in the history of American sports (and the most famous upset). It may have single-handedly propelled the NFL to eventually reach the behemoth status it has today in the country. It has the lore of the his swagger and guarantee. Probably the most remembered football game ever played.

Doncic would have to win many rings to even come close to his legacy comparing to that. And in the long run, I think his cards will need those kind of results to keep up with today's values.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Namath's title is possibly the most famous one in the history of American sports (and the most famous upset). It may have single-handedly propelled the NFL to eventually reach the behemoth status it has today in the country. It has the lore of the his swagger and guarantee. Probably the most remembered football game ever played.

Doncic would have to win many rings to even come close to his legacy comparing to that. And in the long run, I think his cards will need those kind of results to keep up with today's values.

As I have posted many times, the Namath card is the perfect storm, it's irrelevant that he may not be in the very first rank of the pantheon of quarterbacks. The Namath RC has little relevance to Luka Doncic.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As I have posted many times, the Namath card is the perfect storm, it's irrelevant that he may not be in the very first rank of the pantheon of quarterbacks. The Namath RC has little relevance to Luka Doncic.

It's very relevant, Peter.

Namath was an average (or slightly above average) QB. He had maybe three good seasons as a player and won his only ring against a team whose star QB was injured. And yes, that QB was Johnny Unitas! A healthy Unitas would have picked the Jets apart. And finally, after the AFL/NFL merger, I believe the Jets never made the playoffs again with Namath as their QB. But people still love him and will pay big money for his 65' Topps rookie card.

So, with Doncic, it's the same thing. When his career is over, like Namath, he might not rank in the top ten, or even in the top twenty, and he might only get a ring or two, but as long as he has this enormous fanbase, then I expect this rookie card of his to keep growing in value.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I hope this doesn't come out sounding wrong, but is there perhaps a bit of the Great White Hope thing underlying some of his popularity?



https://theshadowleague.com/luka-don...n-waiting-for/

Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

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[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Absolutely it helps his popularity. Along with Jokic two of the NBA's top players are now European.

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Haven't Jokic and Doncic always been European?

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Haven't Jokic and Doncic always been European?

Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

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[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

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Oh yeah, I agree. I'd probably mention Joel Embiid in that conversation too. (Not European but Int'l - raised in Cameroon)

[esd10]

Let me first say this mickey mantle is one of the greatest to play the game but I believe the 52t mantle is over valued based on it being a double print and a ton of them in private collection and for sale. Cards of babe ruth even his rookie card dont bring the same money as a 52t mantle in comparable grades and they are a heck of alot rarer than that mantle card.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Hah. Actually there are 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo was born and raised in Greece. The point is the diversity is good for the game, it gives fans more to relate to.

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Agree. It also can lead to an increase in demand (and as a result price) for these players as they may have entire countries or areas of the world now wanting their cards. It wasn't too long ago that it was pretty much only Americans interested so much in basketball cards.

[BobC]

Anyone want to take guess at what a Yao Ming 1/1 rookie card would go for today if he had just entered the NBA in the last couple of years instead of back in 2002?