Gone from the Blue-Collar Guy

Dead-Ball-Hitter · #1 01-19-2022, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by japhi

We are at the peak of a once in a lifetime asset bubble. Don't like these prices, give it some time. Air is coming out of all asset classes I follow and with QE being wound down, no stimulus in sight, and money about to get a lot more expensive, there will be a day relatively soon when all the things we can't afford today will become slightly more affordable.

Thing is, will you or I, in that environment, be willing to part with cash to buy this stuff. If you stock portfolio is down 20 points, your HELOC up 2% and your RE down 15%, you may have a hard time pulling the trigger on a 10K card that used to be 18K. I'm not sure what's coming will be good for the retail investor / blue collar collector.

Is this Matt or Tyler Durden from ZeroHedge? (Sorry, Finance joke). Agree with you that every bubble bursts. A big question we probably all struggle with is, "Do I sell now, reap the rewards, suffer for a couple years, and buy it back cheaper? Or do I continue to do what I enjoy and say the heck with it!?"

I think about this every day....

Johnny630 · #2 01-19-2022, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

Is this Matt or Tyler Durden from ZeroHedge? (Sorry, Finance joke). Agree with you that every bubble bursts. A big question we probably all struggle with is, "Do I sell now, reap the rewards, suffer for a couple years, and buy it back cheaper? Or do I continue to do what I enjoy and say the heck with it!?"

I think about this every day....

I'm just holding walking away for now waiting for a better time to buy.

I think in graded HOF Super Stars we are entering, not there yet but a long period of Stagflation in Prices. How long will it last Idk...it's my belief that
Prices will remain high because people paid too much and wont let them go for 20% lower and or cheaper. Auction Houses may dry up people won't come off their prices unless we have a recession which I don't see happening anytime soon. People have a lot of money because the economy is super strong they won't give in easy on lowering their prices or take a big loss. Just me I could be dead wrong.

Exhibitman · #3 01-19-2022, 01:51 PM

"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."--Baron Rothschild

If you believe we are at peak then it is time to sell, bank the cash, and wait for the downturn to get back in.

jb217676 · #4 01-19-2022, 02:01 PM

Taking a break helps I think. I took a break from collecting sports cards for almost two years (this was when prices really took off) then started collecting again in late 2020. During my break I switched to work on my other collections... action figures... skateboard cards... non-sports cards... etc. Now I dabble a little bit here and there without laser focusing on one thing.

jchcollins · #5 01-19-2022, 02:08 PM

While it's heartening to see that I'm not the only one concerned about some of this run-up, this is nothing new. I've been a collector for close to 40 years now, and complaints about rising prices in the hobby have existed in some form or another for almost as long as I can remember.

A lot of good advice here. Cast a wider net, re-evaluate if you have strict condition requirements. When I got back into the hobby (this time...) as an adult sometime around 2014, I basically had to rule out most prewar because it had simply gotten too expensive for the amount of resources I wanted to devote to the hobby. I could have a nice but very small prewar collection - or I could have a more extensive collection of postwar stars that were also in nicer shape. Since I tend to gravitate towards postwar anyway, that was an easy decision for me.

Just here recently, I've had to backpedal on condition requirements. I remember getting nice, EX-MT-ish examples of cards like a '56 Topps Hank Aaron back 20 or so years ago for what F/P condition copies of that card go for now. So anymore, I try to go for cards that have flaws, but still present well. Recent examples would include a G range '55 Topps Mays, and an SGC 1 Diamond Stars Lefty Grove - a card I had always wanted. These are cards that I wouldn't be able to afford at all if I had insisted on my former condition stringencies. So to me that's an easy decision as well.

I will agree that the run-ups on individual cards have in many cases exceeded what I tend to think of as reasonable some time back as well. In the past few years, I've occasionally sold from my collection to put together scratch for a new card. And then a few days later it's like did I really just spend like a grand on a piece of cardboard? Though I could afford it in many cases, that kind of spending in general on hobby luxury is just not where I'm at in my life considering the big picture right now. It's also just stress I don't need. I can see where it would be easy to get frustrated with the process and just quit, but I love cards too much still to do that. I think there's a pretty big middle ground right now between being priced out, and still finding things to enjoy - so that is where I try to play. Maybe I pickup some raw, G-VG condition remaining 50's stars instead of PSA graded EX or better. Maybe I start looking at some Kellogg's and Hostess cards from the 70's that I've always been interested in, instead of having to have graded Topps base cards. Yes, it can be frustrating, but I'm not giving up yet.

japhi · #6 01-19-2022, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

Is this Matt or Tyler Durden from ZeroHedge? (Sorry, Finance joke). Agree with you that every bubble bursts. A big question we probably all struggle with is, "Do I sell now, reap the rewards, suffer for a couple years, and buy it back cheaper? Or do I continue to do what I enjoy and say the heck with it!?"

I think about this every day....

Can't stand ZeroHedge! For what it's worth, I'm not calling for a global economic meltdown or any sort of doomsday scenario. While the GFC and the dotcom bubble were tough stretches, most came out fine. My strategy is to increase my cash position but keep most of my chips in. You simply can't time markets. Those looking for the bottom never find it because, like FOMO, greed sets in and you end up wanting more.

Some big companies missed earnings this week, lots of value evaporating from equity markets past couple days. Crypto been melting down since Oct. Have to believe that card prices will follow.

Dead-Ball-Hitter · #7 01-19-2022, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by japhi

Can't stand ZeroHedge….
Some big companies missed earnings this week, lots of value evaporating from equity markets past couple days. Crypto been melting down since Oct. Have to believe that card prices will follow.

I agree about those fringe financial sites- read them for an hour or two and you need a stiff drink and two prozac!

Hey crypto just got endorsed by Google… still not in my wheelhouse- no interest.

Exhibitman · #8 01-19-2022, 07:21 PM

Last time around card prices lagged the start of the troubles by about a year and lagged the rebound accordingly.

This thread really bugs me, in a good way, because it points out some real issues for dedicated collectors that don't have ready solutions. Either we stop collecting a wide variety of cards we are priced out of or the economy craps the bed. Not pleasant choices either way, frankly. I think I am just going to stay the course with my long-term plans for my collecting and just wait patiently for the right cards to come up at the right prices, and if not, fine.

Anyone consider reprints or tribute cards? I knew I wasn't going to pay what it costs to get 1952 Topps stars so I filled in the space in my binder for the Mays with a 1983 Topps reprint. In the 1970s TCMA reprinted a variety of prewar cards. Or collect the various collector issues. They are inexpensive and can be quite fun. I have or am working on 1959 and 1960 Nu-Card, 1960 and 1961 Fleer, 1961 Golden Press, 1974 Fleer Pioneers of Baseball, 1974 Laughlin Old Time Black Stars, the small 1970s TCMA sets, etc.

bnorth · #9 01-19-2022, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Last time around card prices lagged the start of the troubles by about a year and lagged the rebound accordingly.

This thread really bugs me, in a good way, because it points out some real issues for dedicated collectors that don't have ready solutions. Either we stop collecting a wide variety of cards we are priced out of or the economy craps the bed. Not pleasant choices either way, frankly. I think I am just going to stay the course with my long-term plans for my collecting and just wait patiently for the right cards to come up at the right prices, and if not, fine.

Anyone consider reprints or tribute cards? I knew I wasn't going to pay what it costs to get 1952 Topps stars so I filled in the space in my binder for the Mays with a 1983 Topps reprint. In the 1970s TCMA reprinted a variety of prewar cards. Or collect the various collector issues. They are inexpensive and can be quite fun. I have or am working on 1959 and 1960 Nu-Card, 1960 and 1961 Fleer, 1961 Golden Press, 1974 Fleer Pioneers of Baseball, 1974 Laughlin Old Time Black Stars, the small 1970s TCMA sets, etc.

Reprints are awesome and I have many complete vintage reprint sets.

egri · #10 01-19-2022, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

This thread really bugs me, in a good way, because it points out some real issues for dedicated collectors that don't have ready solutions. Either we stop collecting a wide variety of cards we are priced out of or the economy craps the bed. Not pleasant choices either way, frankly. I think I am just going to stay the course with my long-term plans for my collecting and just wait patiently for the right cards to come up at the right prices, and if not, fine.

I feel like there are a few things this applies to besides cards. Real estate comes to mind; I have relatives out near Vail, and the joke out there is that the billionaires are driving out the millionaires. If they hadn't bought several years ago, there's no way they could live there now. My mom grew up on the East Coast and can remember when much of Cape Cod was still small farming and fishing villages; now it's a playground for people who use summer as a verb.

Seven · #11 01-19-2022, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by egri

I feel like there are a few things this applies to besides cards. Real estate comes to mind; I have relatives out near Vail, and the joke out there is that the billionaires are driving out the billionaires. If they hadn't bought several years ago, there's no way they could live there now. My mom grew up on the East Coast and can remember when much of Cape Cod was still small farming and fishing villages; now it's a playground for people who use summer as a verb.

Real Estate where I grew up has become ridiculous as well. No more young families settling down really, unless they have a large amount of disposable income. It seems like the majority of people who grew up in New York have either moved upstate or left entirely. I already know if I end up staying near NY, that I'll end up in Jersey. If not, Florida is a realistic destination. Hopefully it won't sink into the sea by the time I'm in my 70s

Stampsfan · #12 01-20-2022, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by egri

... My mom grew up on the East Coast and can remember when much of Cape Cod was still small farming and fishing villages; now it's a playground for people who use summer as a verb.

Love this reference. Well done.

Johnny630 · #13 01-20-2022, 09:38 AM

I’m July 2021 this card, see link below 51 Bowman Mantle PSA 8, sold in Memory Lane For $498,000. 6 months later it’s now up for sale again in Leland’s what will it sell for now?

True collectors don’t do this on big Cards, These people don’t care about the cards they care about making money on fools,its been a big Game.
Doing this on high grade eights in Mickey Mantle Rookie‘s 51 Bowman its driven every grade price to the higher level pushing it up in all grades. The money is being made by these guys on the lower grade cards based off the sale and many others like this. The 51 Bowman Mantles in 3’s and 4’s should never sell for $20k like they did last year, it’s been very interesting to watch

See pics and Link Below ….investors set the price is this market. How long will the investor stay in the this game ??

https://auction.lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=107698

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