Where Cards are and are going - Link to Josh Luper's "statement"

[ASF123]

I wonder how generalizable his analysis is to sports cards other than basketball, though (he talks about cards generally, but almost all of his examples are basketball). Does the analogy to sneakers work? Sneakers and basketball (and probably also football) are linked to hip-hop and youth culture in a way that baseball is…not.

[mrreality68]

interesting read but not sure of the impact on vintage but interesting for more modern stuff

[BobC]

Definitely an interesting read, though not necessarily as applicable to the vintage, especially pre-war, baseball card market. I always thought baseball cards were the top component, by far, of sales and activity of the U.S. sports card market. Yet on that CL50 Index referenced in the essay, there were only 15 baseball cards (30.0%) on it, with only one of them being a pre-war card ('33 Goudey - Ruth). Also noticed how 49 of those 50 cards referenced were PSA graded versions (only 1 by BGS), seeming to further push the reliance almost solely on PSA grading for applicable market confidence and measurement. And though he also discussed issues with card grading backlogs and the cessation of acceptance of new submissions by some TPGs, not a single word about the suspected, and still unresolved, card alteration issue still hanging over select sellers, TPGs, and the hobby as a whole.

But if this guy's arguments and predictions are even close to true, we are definitely not a hobby anymore, but an emerging new investing commodity market and industry, with all these slick young, new, business and investment types entering into it. But I fear not so much as to promote, take part, and enjoy card collecting themselves, but more so to figure out how to jump in and take more money from collectors like us. He even got our hobby into a comparison with Bitcoin, of all things.

So if this is truly where things are headed, I think I finally have it figured out. I just need to get Kanye, Megan Thee Stallion, or maybe the Biebs, to pose with a few S74s and upload and post pictures of it on Twitter or Instagram. Maybe then my silk collection will actually be worth something. LOL.

[Rich Klein]

As a person who lives in both the new card world and the vintage (pre-1980) world, I can assure you we as a vintage group are going to be fine.

Now the biggest changes will occur in the brand new (beginning about 2024 or so) and the really expensive cards (the high dollar cards which a large majority of us can't afford to own).

So rest assured, our T206 monster quests or our baseball history quests will not be affected.

Rich

[Exhibitman]

One of the more interesting comparisons is the condition rarity of modern vs. the absolute rarity of vintage. They are truly different markets. Extremely low grade prewar cards are busting records. I mean, Heritage closed a fair condition 1925 Exhibit Gehrig RC for $105,000; think a fair MJ RC will get anything like that??

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

One of the more interesting comparisons is the condition rarity of modern vs. the absolute rarity of vintage. They are truly different markets. Extremely low grade prewar cards are busting records. I mean, Heritage closed a fair condition 1925 Exhibit Gehrig RC for $105,000; think a fair MJ RC will get anything like that??

I would expect the huge price jumps for the big name pre-war players like Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, and Wagner, even though their condition is nowhere near all the 9 - 10 grades these modern manufactured rarities get. These new investor/collectors know to focus on the big names when it comes to pre-war cards. And they also realize they don't have to be 9s - 10s to go for big money, as long as the PSA pop reports show they're just as rare as the high value modern cards. The bigger question I see is, what is happening to the prices of the pre-war commons, and/or pre-war cards not in PSA holders?

[Fred]

??

Are modern cards are like the gateway drug to vintage collecting... So, an Ohtani rookie is like primo weed that will lead to a Ruth/Cobb heroin addiction?

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

As a person who lives in both the new card world and the vintage (pre-1980) world, I can assure you we as a vintage group are going to be fine.

Now the biggest changes will occur in the brand new (beginning about 2024 or so) and the really expensive cards (the high dollar cards which a large majority of us can't afford to own).

So rest assured, our T206 monster quests or our baseball history quests will not be affected.

Rich

hi rich agreed