Best lefty off all time? My vote is Koufax!

[cjedmonton]

Don’t mean to exhume such an old debate, but I sure wish I saw this in its heyday.

Huge southpaw buff here, and in the pre-blog days (early aughts) I spent far more time than I’d care to admit analyzing/ranking any and all lefties.

While I didn’t read all 636 posts, I thoroughly enjoyed the outstanding analysis and comments supporting and critiquing each candidate.

No point adding my own list, but I did want to echo the sentiment that peak value carries tremendous weight when determining “greatness”. It almost cannot be argued that without it, Koufax’s legacy would not have existed at all.

By this I mean even if he compiled the same exact single season totals, but only staggered across his career rather than being super-concentrated as they were, we would not be talking about him in nearly the same light.

Lest we forget that it was actually his non-statistical narrative that has fuelled his mystique to this day in a way no other pitcher has. The no-no’s, the hardware, the championships, the conviction not to pitch in the World Series on his Sabbath, the early retirement after the greatest final season ever, his post-retirement reclusiveness, etc…

Sandy’s peak cannot be overestimated because it has endured for 55 years now. 55 years and he is still being discussed among the young and less-than-young. Among casual fans and the most ardent students of the game. Among the vast majority of us who are relegated to YouTube highlights and the privileged surviving few who witnessed his magic in person (who when you think about it, would have to be at least about 70 right now to have a vivid and full appreciation of what they saw then).

How many retired players period are still revered the way Koufax has been…let alone for half a century+?

Say what you will about how fans tend to carry selective memories when it comes to their teams/heroes, but can millions upon millions be wrong?

Among hitters, the list is much longer of course (Ruth, Mantle (see my previous question), Mays, Clemente, Aaron, etc…), but among pitchers? I contend an honest list would be limited to Cy Young, who despite the eponymous annual award, doesn’t even qualify for this debate because he threw with the wrong hand Curiously, Young’s mystique is nearly the polar opposite of Koufax’s as it leans almost exclusively on his otherworldly career output.

Don’t scoff when I say just Young…name one other pitcher who stopped playing before Sandy did, and who not only lives but flourishes in our modern collective consciousness the way Koufax does?

Does Big Train (who is certainly #1 ever) honestly evoke that emotion? If not Walter, how can any other until Koufax came along? That is the essence of peak value.

Okay, let’s move the chains to post-Sandy. Nolan Ryan? Fair, but not exactly a “peak” guy the way Sandy was. Plus, that was a mere 28 years ago since he finally hung up his cleats. Double that and see if we are still gushing (spoiler alert, we are).

Pedro? C’mon, that was just 12 years ago…practically yesterday. Will we still be romanticizing his exploits in 2064 (43 years from now to match the 55 year retirement Sandy has today)?

Koufax meanwhile, while still with us, has been largely absent from the public eye for several decades, so it is not like we are being spoon fed regular reminders of him through appearances, autograph signings, commercials, etc…. His “greatness”, however you wish to define it, speaks for itself and stands on its own…sabermetrics be damned The essence of peak value, and why he’s in the conversation in the first place.

Now career value is another matter…Spahn is my guy.

[Carter08]

Spahn is also my guy for career feats.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by cjedmonton

Don’t scoff when I say just Young…name one other pitcher who stopped playing before Sandy did, and who not only lives but flourishes in our modern collective consciousness the way Koufax does?

I think this small part of what you wrote (all of which I read) encapsulates the reverence of Koufax. Other than having a killer nickname (Seriously you're not doing better than the Left Arm of God) Koufax's career is the perfect blend of Greatness combined with "What If"

People saw Koufax at his peak, rattling off three Cy Young awards in four years, winning three pitching triple crowns, yet his name always comes up with "oh well if he was healthy, he'd probably have even more" His strikeout numbers for his career, while pedestrian by today's standards, were extremely impressive for the time, he ranked 7th all time, when he hung them up, despite the bulk of them coming in the latter half of his career that lasted only 12 seasons.

I think it's very hard to argue against Koufax's peak. The only thing he has working against him is the offensive climate of the league at the time, which I suppose would work in someone like Randy Johnson's favor, who pitched in a more difficult offensive environment, but I think we hit a level of greatness where it's almost impossible to distinguish, even through statistics who was better. It's more along the lines of "flip a coin" of who would you rather pitch. Because really Whether it be The Unit, Koufax, or Grove it's going to be extremely hard to pick.

[Exhibitman]

I like to look at peak performance and Baseball Reference has a good short-hand look at the peak 7 year performances. Seven years is enough to weed out the anomalous streaks but short enough to discount cumulative stats due to longevity:

Grove:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (7th):
106.8 career WAR | 65.6 7yr-peak WAR | 86.2 JAWS | 6.8 WAR/162

Johnson:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (10th):
101.1 career WAR | 61.5 7yr-peak WAR | 81.3 JAWS | 5.6 WAR/162

Koufax:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (90th):
48.9 career WAR | 46.0 7yr-peak WAR | 47.4 JAWS | 4.7 WAR/162

Kershaw:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (34th):
71.9 career WAR | 49.7 7yr-peak WAR | 60.8 JAWS | 6.4 WAR/162

Hubbell:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (40th):
68.5 career WAR | 47.7 7yr-peak WAR | 58.1 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162

I'm a huge Koufax fan and Kersh is a Dodger too, but Grove was just...better. As for Kersh and Koufax (which is a big debate in True Blue LA), gotta give it to Koufax based on what went into each season (Kersh pitches a lot less) and post-season performances.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I like to look at peak performance and Baseball Reference has a good short-hand look at the peak 7 year performances. Seven years is enough to weed out the anomalous streaks but short enough to discount cumulative stats due to longevity:

Grove:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (7th):
106.8 career WAR | 65.6 7yr-peak WAR | 86.2 JAWS | 6.8 WAR/162

Johnson:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (10th):
101.1 career WAR | 61.5 7yr-peak WAR | 81.3 JAWS | 5.6 WAR/162

Koufax:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (90th):
48.9 career WAR | 46.0 7yr-peak WAR | 47.4 JAWS | 4.7 WAR/162

Kershaw:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (34th):
71.9 career WAR | 49.7 7yr-peak WAR | 60.8 JAWS | 6.4 WAR/162

Hubbell:
JAWS Starting Pitcher (40th):
68.5 career WAR | 47.7 7yr-peak WAR | 58.1 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162

I'm a huge Koufax fan and Kersh is a Dodger too, but Grove was just...better. As for Kersh and Koufax (which is a big debate in True Blue LA), gotta give it to Koufax based on what went into each season (Kersh pitches a lot less) and post-season performances.

I wanted to say that the only downfall to this is (or maybe to the argument for Koufax) that Koufax's peak, was shorter than seven years. He Burned bright, and quickly. Looking at the final four years of his career, in comparison to Grove's best four and Johnson's best four, Grove still edges him out, just barely in terms of WAR. To be quite frank, however I'd really be happy with any of them starting a "do or die" game for me!

[Peter_Spaeth]

The debate about whether and to what extent longevity and milestone stats matter will never be settled. It's come up for the millionth time with the retirement of Posey. I tend to agree that JAWS is a pretty good compromise.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The debate about whether and to what extent longevity and milestone stats matter will never be settled. It's come up for the millionth time with the retirement of Posey. I tend to agree that JAWS is a pretty good compromise.

I agree, IF you are talking HOF-worthiness, because 7/10 years is a pretty good measure for an average HOFer. Cumulation stats are less and less valuable as players take better care of themselves and play longer. If Koufax was playing today he'd be on a strict pitch count and would last longer but would have cumulative stats a lot more like Kershaw's.

[G1911]

Whether it’s the best 4 years (a number selected solely with the goal of making Koufax try and win), best 5 years, best 7 years, best decade, or best career value, it doesn’t seem to matter for LHP. The math-centered answer relative to context is still Lefty Grove. His margin of victory changes, but he still comes out on top with any of them.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Whether it’s the best 4 years (a number selected solely with the goal of making Koufax try and win), best 5 years, best 7 years, best decade, or best career value, it doesn’t seem to matter for LHP. The math-centered answer relative to context is still Lefty Grove. His margin of victory changes, but he still comes out on top with any of them.

I would think on best 4 or 5 years Unit would be way up there?

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would think on best 4 or 5 years Unit would be way up there?

Do not forget about Greg Maddux

4 years 92, 93, 94, 95 with 4 Straight Cy Young Awards

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would think on best 4 or 5 years Unit would be way up there?

Up there, but not quite there. Using Baseball Reference WAR, though frankly I'm not a big fan of WAR:

Top 4:
Grove: 11.2, 10.4, 10.4, 9.8 = 41.8
Johnson: 10.7, 10.1, 9.1, 8.6 = 38.5
Koufax: 10.7, 10.3, 8.1, 7.3 = 36.4


Top 5
Grove: 11.2, 10.4, 10.4, 9.8, 9.5 = 51.3
Johnson: 10.7, 10.1, 9.1, 8.6, 8.4 = 46.9
Koufax: 10.7, 10.3, 8.1, 7.3, 5.7 = 42.1



These are the methods trying to punish Grove and reward other favored candidates, but Grove still wins. I'd put Johnson and Spahn 2nd and 3rd. Spahn obviously fairs poorly in top 4 or 5 season only ranking as his great value was his consistent excellence and not short greatness. My takeaway from the first 630 posts last year was that there is no math-based rational argument for Koufax at all, but the emotional ties to him are very strong for a great many.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by cjedmonton

Say what you will about how fans tend to carry selective memories when it comes to their teams/heroes, but can millions upon millions be wrong?

I don't have a strong opinion on the "Koufax career greatness" debate, but I can answer yes to your question w/ two other names:

Nolan Ryan and Pete Rose