The Future

[Leon]

Originally Posted by HistoricNewspapers

Growth. There are 1.8 billion more people in the world today compared to the year 2000. That is a lot of new customers for the world's commodities. It will only grow from there.

Sports cards are more of a niche area compared to the overall economy, but vintage sports cards have a very set supply, so even a small increase in collectors can have a huge impact. However, new cards do come out every year, so the taste of the collectors play a big part.

There are 1,500 PSA graded Willie Mays rookies, and one can guess that there are probably another 2,500 in other holders or raw. That is not a lot of supply.

1. How many of the billions of new people in the world will add to the buyers of sports cards? Will they replace the dying collectors at a higher or lower rate?

2. Society preferences. How many of the recent covid collectors will stay? Can it go "viral" with so many people promoting their cards and $$$ via social media and internet?

3. Civil War or WW3. There is always that...then all bets are off.

4,000 Willie Mays rookies to buy. If only 15,000 new serious collectors emerge from those above possibilities...man, think about that.

Looking at the overall picture, I personally think the market will only go up overall, but not without some hills and valleys.

The battle will be within the market, not the market itself. Shiny vs vintage. Stars vs sets. High grade vs collector grade. Etc..

I would not underestimate the current group of kids. This is anecdotal, but in the mid 80's in middle school, there weren't many card collectors in school...just a few in each grade. By college, I was one of two people in my sphere who had collected cards and I was an athlete. Collecting by kids wasn't as dense as it is made out to be. It was certainly wide spread, but it wasn't like everyone was doing it.

You would be surprised right now with the kids. They know their sports. It isn't just modern either. We had some informal trivia the other day at school and they know the players. They are always wearing pro jerseys and stuff.

They are into cards too. In just the last month alone I've been involved in three baseball card conversations with kids, brought up by them.

One kid brought his moms cards to school. I commented on his Frank Thomas card.

Another teacher and a group of kids were talking cards, and the teacher mentioned the "game" that was on the back of the cards. He couldn't remember which year it was. I told him it was 1978 Topps. He was talking with a few kids about cards and he was telling them to keep them in good condition.

Another 3rd grade kid brought an autographed ball and asked me if I knew the signature. I looked at it, and I said "Fergie Jenkins." He looked at another kid with a look of "I told you so."

Kids haven't changed, contrary to popular belief. We change. I remember my first year teaching how a couple of teachers were talking about "today's kids," having changed, and that was in 1994. Then 25 years later a couple of younger teachers are saying the same about "today's kids." I laughed inside my head because 25 years ago THEY were the generation being talked about.

They are just as kind, silly, sneaky, and brutally honest as we all were when we were kids. As much of a disconnect that older generations look at them now, they are the same, and they will mostly connect to their childhood as a time of fondness and look back at the time when 'life was good'. There will be a sentiment for them as there is for us now. I even see it with my own oldest kids how they look back at some of the shows on Disney Channel and how "there aren't shows like that anymore on TV".

The future is good. Now if social media would just stick to cards instead of the constant strife we always see...

Nice post with some interesting stuff to think about.
And a random Count Dracula card.

[packs]

Kids are not buying cards. What kid has $250 plus to spend on a box of 2021 Bowman? The current card industry isn't designed for children. It's the same bums you see at every show who have more money now because they haven't been spending as much.

[maj78]

Originally Posted by packs

Kids are not buying cards. What kid has $250 plus to spend on a box of 2021 Bowman? The current card industry isn't designed for children. It's the same bums you see at every show who have more money now because they haven't been spending as much.

Not to be argumentative but to a certain degree they are. I took my 10 year old to a local card show (his first) two weeks ago. He spent less the $50 and won a 2019 Donruss Football hanger box as a door prize and he could not have had more fun. He's normally pretty shy but actually wanted me to leave him alone so he could go make offers on a few of the lower end cards he wanted. Something I learned on here...there's a rear-end for every seat.

I do agree that most young kids aren't buying $250 boxes of Bowman but a lot of dad's are buying those boxes for their kids. And, depending on what age we are considering "kids" there are plenty of 16-22 year old kids carrying around tons of cash at these shows. Crazy, but true.

[troutbum97]

[QUOTE=maj78;2104374I took my 10 year old to a local card show (his first) two weeks ago. He's normally pretty shy but actually wanted me to leave him alone so he could go make offers on a few of the lower end cards he wanted. Something I learned on here...there's a rear-end for every seat.[/QUOTE]

That’s super duper cool. Thanks for sharing.

I remember being awkward as a 10-13 yr old kid, but feeling in my groove at card shows with my paper route money, trying to find deals and barter with the dealers. Great early life lessons.

A+ to you, sir. Your story made me smile.

[jgannon]

It's really is great to hear about kids being instilled with a love for collecting. Those kids, are no doubt out there. But for years, out on the street so to speak, the only cards I've seen kids interested in collecting and getting into them with their friends, are things like Pokémon cards. I haven't seen kids in the mainstream collect baseball cards in years.

Given what they cost, card collecting isn't really geared toward kids anymore. With the Pokémon packs, while not large boxes of "product" (I really hate that word), you're talking about dealing in dollars, not coins to buy them.

There is a quote by some famous rock musician, "We used to make records for girls. Now we make them for nerds". Lol. In much the same way, you can say that cards used to be made for kids, now they're made for immature adults pulling guns on each other in parking lots.

But of course, that isn't all of us...

Today's kids are of course, more interested in gaming. It's a different world.

[egri]

One of my neighbors used to work for a large toy company. He was telling me how 7-8 year olds used to be the low end of the age range they would market towards, but by the time he left they had become the upper end. Once they started turning 9-10 years old, they were so busy with after school activities that they didn’t have a whole lot of free time, and when they did have free time they were gravitating towards screens instead. I think cards are in the same boat. Topps has priced out kids, and I can’t bring myself to spend money on NFTs or spin the roulette wheel on this years once in a generation prospect who might make it big, or might be out of the league in two years. I think the last time I bought current year Topps cards was in 2007. I think they were trying to channel the 1971 set with the black borders, and fell well short of the mark.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by jgannon

It's really is great to hear about kids being instilled with a love for collecting. Those kids, are no doubt out there. But for years, out on the street so to speak, the only cards I've seen kids interested in collecting and getting into them with their friends, are things like Pokémon cards. I haven't seen kids in the mainstream collect baseball cards in years.

Yes, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh! These kids have no interest in collecting sports cards.

Originally Posted by maj78

Not to be argumentative but to a certain degree they are. I took my 10 year old to a local card show (his first) two weeks ago. He spent less the $50 and won a 2019 Donruss Football hanger box as a door prize and he could not have had more fun. He's normally pretty shy but actually wanted me to leave him alone so he could go make offers on a few of the lower end cards he wanted. Something I learned on here...there's a rear-end for every seat.

I do agree that most young kids aren't buying $250 boxes of Bowman but a lot of dad's are buying those boxes for their kids. And, depending on what age we are considering "kids" there are plenty of 16-22 year old kids carrying around tons of cash at these shows. Crazy, but true.

There are cards to be had cheaply if you don't expect to open packs. The rippers sell box loads of the cards they don't want cheap on Ebay and at flea markets/toy shows. I was at a toy show this weekend and a guy had new cards cheap, cheap, cheap. Of course they weren't the prism, double rainbow, stamped 1/1, die-cut autographed acuna card or such. Just new run of the mill players that they can't flip for a few hundred bucks. The kids were all over it like liquid gold. LOL.