The Future

[Gorditadogg]

I've seen The Future, brother, it is murder.

Card prices have been softening for a couple months now, and that will continue for a while. And the cards that have run up the most are the ones that are most vulnerable to correction. New collectors have run up the prices on the cards they know, but as the market contracts and there isn't new money anymore, they can only sell back to the people they bought their cards from, i.e. the old collector base.

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[KCRfan1]

Would anyone view this as a time to accumulate 206's for example, over the next 6 months to a year? Keeping an eye open for about 5 years ahead and price increases?

[iwantitiwinit]

In my mind inflation for luxury and relatively scarce goods is not only here it will escalate. There are more than a few that have benefited from this surge in cryptocurrency prices, equity prices, real estate boom, stimulus, etc. More dollars held by a decent sized populus of people chasing limited goods will no doubt cause those goods to rise in value. Which goods, classic autos, collectible art, luxury and second homes, wine, watches and yes even baseball cards. I expect in the near to mid-term even items that in the past have been seen as only a mild excessive spend/treat, let's say something like a lobster dinner will begin to be out of their reach as the growing number of more affluent reach for those items on a more regular basis and pushing up prices. We are already seeing true shortages of those type of things in a resource constrained world. Not only are more individuals reaching for these items they are hoarding them and/or seeking them with much more frequency thereby accelerating their scarcity.

My advice buy T206's in mass quantity.

[egri]

I think the canary in the coal mine will be interest rates. When debt is no longer cheap, then the bubbles here, in real estate and elsewhere will pop. Also, I would not be surprised if part of the recent downturn in prices is due to people selling to cover tax bills. Tax day is Monday this year, and I think a lot of the people who got into cards/stocks/house flipping within the past year recently did their taxes were not expecting the bills they got.

[Republicaninmass]

"Stronger than dirt"

[TobaccoKing4]

Hi-end collectibles are historically one of the best performers during times of inflation. I think inflation is here to stay for a while, and that these prices aren't going anywhere but up for the next 2 years.

[Bobbycee]

[QUOTE=iwantitiwinit;210292

My advice buy T206's in mass quantity.[/QUOTE]

Oh, man...music to my ears. This advice was almost as welcome as Bluto's: "My advice to you is to start drinking heavily"

[samosa4u]

For the first time ever, I am seeing videos on YouTube that show guys in their early-twenties slapping down $75 - $100,000 US at card shows. Like where the f**k are they getting that kind of money from? Oh yeah, from flipping cards - where else? They think they can keep doing it until they have enough to buy a seaside mansion. One guy even commented how a Kobe Bryant rookie at $5,000 US was a good buy since he was getting inducted into the HOF. Folks, this was like a $700 US card before the pandemic started. How the f**k is that a good buy?

I think the future prices will largely depend on how many of these "investors" leave the hobby once society returns to normal. Another thing we have to look at is the length of time it takes for this to happen. For example, will half of these guys be gone by 2025? More than half? How many will stay in the hobby for the next ten or so years? Of course, nobody knows this.

Oh, and here is a card:

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

...a Kobe Bryant rookie at $5,000 US was a good buy since he was getting inducted into the HOF. Folks, this was like a $700 US card before the pandemic started. How the f**k is that a good buy?

I think the future prices will largely depend on how many of these "investors" leave the hobby once society returns to normal...

The meteoric rise in largely unsustainable prices has led to a high-stakes game of Modern Card Musical Chairs.

I'd hate to be one of the people left standing when the music stops.

[bmattioli]

I've wondered how many members are collectors that don't really care about values and collect just to collect. Me? I don't sell and am a collector of things I wish I had in my youth..

[egri]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

They think they can keep doing it until they have enough to buy a seaside mansion. One guy even commented how a Kobe Bryant rookie at $5,000 US was a good buy since he was getting inducted into the HOF. Folks, this was like a $700 US card before the pandemic started. How the f**k is that a good buy?

I think that mindset has been around for a while; a few years ago, there was a member on here bragging about how his collection (the centerpiece was a pair of Sammy Sosa’s cleats) would sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars at auction and he would use the proceeds to retire young to an estate in Greenwich, Conn. Nowadays the scale is certainly larger, but there’s always been dreamers in this hobby.

[edjs]

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[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by egri

I think that mindset has been around for a while; a few years ago, there was a member on here bragging about how his collection (the centerpiece was a pair of Sammy Sosa’s cleats) would sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars at auction and he would use the proceeds to retire young to an estate in Greenwich, Conn. Nowadays the scale is certainly larger, but there’s always been dreamers in this hobby.

Adam! I do wonder what became of that guy.