1952 Bowman Mantle...this current bidding can't be real, can it?

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

So, a PSA 7 sold in December for $8,378 and a PSA 8 sold in January for for $18,500.

This SGC 7 is at $38,100 with five days to go.

No way. I get that MAYBE the Bowman has been a little undervalued compared to the Topps, and yes that is nice looking "7", but that much gain in a month or two?

No way.

(I know it's typically bad form to discuss current auctions before they close, but I wanted to see if anyone else found this a little out of line...even with the current state of things.)

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Bowman...IAAOSwZylgHI8t

[GasHouseGang]

It's a beautiful card, but the prices for everything nice are jumping so fast it's hard to keep up. Looking at past auction results from just a few months ago doesn't even seem to be relevant anymore. Prices are crazy right now.

[bobsbbcards]

I suppose someone thinks they can get a bump......to an 11.

[dio]

I'm starting to think the high grade ones will be rich's mans toy, it will soon never reach working individual again

iconic psa 9,10 ultra rich
psa 7,8 normal rich
psa 6. enough to retire rich
from 1-5 is normal working ppl

And sooner or later those great cards will be less and less on the market, those individual will just hold it, they don't care much about the 1-200k when they have 100 million worth

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

It's a beautiful card, but the prices for everything nice are jumping so fast it's hard to keep up. Looking at past auction results from just a few months ago doesn't even seem to be relevant anymore. Prices are crazy right now.

I suppose. I guess I just can't quite come to terms with the fact that MAYBE the market really is that hot right now.

It's possible that there are just a LOT of new collectors with a LOT of money looking to build collections and invest.

But it's also possible there are a smaller number of people manipulating the market.

I mean, if you really wanted that card and were willing to pay almost $40,000, wouldn't you at least try to snipe it in the last minute instead of run the price up days before? This feels too much like a blatant, public attempt to run the price up of that card.

Also, to be clear, I'm not trying to implicate PWCC of any wrongdoing here. It could be legit bidding, or it could be manipulated by any number of others from the consigner, to a couple random guys that are sitting on a stack of 1952 Bowman Mantles trying to run the price up and then benefit over the coming months by slowly selling off their Mantles.

[dio]

And this one 51 bowman mickey mantle psa 3 sold for 74k, although got the pwcc exceptional sticker, but he's like paying for a 6 or 7 for a 3, that doesn't make sense


https://www.slabwatch.com/itm/1951-B...E/224243133520

[bobsbbcards]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

...to a couple random guys that are sitting on a stack of 1952 Bowman Mantles trying to run the price up and then benefit over the coming months by slowly selling off their Mantles.

My guess.

[scmavl]

Originally Posted by dio

And this one 51 bowman mickey mantle psa 3 sold for 74k, although got the pwcc exceptional sticker, but he's like paying for a 6 or 7 for a 3, that doesn't make sense


https://www.slabwatch.com/itm/1951-B...E/224243133520

Is that the same PSA 3 that a guy offered here last month for $25k or $29k? Great card with a speck of paper loss, if it's the same one.

[Johnny630]

Many Auction's like this are not for collectors they're for Investors/Traders.....

When I statements like....critical investment piece...key blue chip item

[pokerplyr80]

I saw this one as well and wa as surprised. For comparison Dean has a PSA 6 up for 10k. When a Dean's listing looks like a bargain compared to an active auction you know something is off. Or at best he just can't raise his prices fast enough to keep up.

[bobsbbcards]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

When a Dean's listing looks like a bargain compared to an active auction you know something is off. Or at best he just can't raise his prices fast enough to keep up.

LOL. It must be draining to have to keep upping the prices on your merchandise to guarantee that nothing ever sells.

[Jackieandsatchel]

Nothing really makes sense in this market right now. Things are 3, 4, 5xing over the last sale for no rhyme or reason and the numbers that PWCC and Probstein (whether legit or not) are getting are truly insane.

As a collector, its becoming increasingly difficult to find stuff to buy without paying multiples of what a card was worth for years and years, including the last few sales.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Looks like there is a PWCC PSA 5.5 and a Probstein PSA 6 both closing tomorrow night.

Those are sitting at $4200 and $4300 respectively...which seems in line, if not a little below expectations. Will be interesting to see if those jump significantly by close, or if that SGC 7 remains at 10x the price of the PSA 6.

Who knows, maybe a "7" grade is the new break point for a big price jump.

[ricktopps]

You know the apocalypse is upon us when we find ourselves looking through Dean's cards truly thinking we can find bargains as he can't keep up with the rising prices.

[packs]

Whoops, wrong thread.

[Exhibitman]

How did I know before I even clicked the link that it was PWCC? They get such amazing high prices, so far over what anyone else seems to get. How do they do it???

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Well, a couple more 1952 Bowmans closed last night...a PSA 5.5 and a PSA 6...both around $7300 (strong prices, but in line with the recent pricing across the board). So unless that SGC 7 is REALLY worth 6x a PSA 6, then that bidding remains a suspicious outlier (it's over 40K).

And it appears that others are taking note, as more 1952 Bowman Mantles are being listed with "ridiculous" asking prices.

However, there is a new PSA 7 listed at $18,500 BIN. That one should be FLYING off the shelf any minute now if $40K is the new 7 value.

[Johnny630]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Bowman...IAAOSwZylgHI8t


How can this be explained ??????

This card has consistently sold between $5,500-7,500 of recent in 7 Grade now with 2 days left this $40,000 ???????

It’s my opinion that this same card will be relisted by the same auction within 1 to 3 months from now. Investors aren’t stupid or blind the fundamentals are not there for this said price. I understand momentum, this reminds me of GameStop. That’s just me that’s just my opinion I could be dead wrong. This card is a beautiful card in my personal opinion it could go between 10 and 15k but 40 with two days to go is pie in the sky in my book.

I’m sorry I don’t trust this number as a true Value of said card.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Well, a couple more 1952 Bowmans closed last night...a PSA 5.5 and a PSA 6...both around $7300 (strong prices, but in line with the recent pricing across the board). So unless that SGC 7 is REALLY worth 6x a PSA 6, then that bidding remains a suspicious outlier (it's over 40K).

And it appears that others are taking note, as more 1952 Bowman Mantles are being listed with "ridiculous" asking prices.

However, there is a new PSA 7 listed at $18,500 BIN. That one should be FLYING off the shelf any minute now if $40K is the new 7 value.

Look at the bottom right corner on that 7 BIN $18,500 how is that a 7 ? Hell actually all of the corners.

Also look at his forearm ?? What's going on there with that gray spot???

[packs]

...

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Look at the bottom right corner on that 7 BIN $18,500 how is that a 7 ? Hell actually all of the corners.

Also look at his forearm ?? What's going on there with that gray spot???

I agree...that is NOT a very good looking 7.

However, even though my comment about it "flying off the shelf" was tongue in cheek, it looks like it actually DID just sell this morning.

Not sure what to make of it.

As collectors it appears that we are just making it harder on ourselves. Rather than just patiently wait for "reasonable" card prices, we seem to be driving the prices up on ourselves in an almost "panic buy" mentality. I have certainly pulled the trigger on a card or two in the last 6 months I wasn't planning on, but NOT at this level.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

It will be interesting to see the final price of this card tonight:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Bowman...wAAOSwl29gKyJ6

The initial SGC 7 Mantle that prompted me to start this thread two weeks ago closed at $42,600.

This is the first comparable Mantle to come up for auction since then. Another nice looking SGC 7 from PWCC.

Not sure where this one will end, but it's taking a more "typical" bidding pattern...a slow run up with the potential for high sniping at the end. Sitting at $9700 currently is a little more "normal" then first one that was close to $40K with five days left.

I honestly have no idea how to predict the ending price of this card. But I'm fairly certain it will be somewhere between $10K and $50K

[todeen]

This seems like a good time to start a poll that will draw the ire of many collectors on this site.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[Johnny630]

That $40,000 sale a couple of weeks ago was not real, throw that one out the window.

This card is nice but it has some surface issue and worse corners then the one a couple weeks ago.


$15,9000 last night 40,000 two weeks ago, the real value is $10-12k PEROID WAKE UP PEOPLE WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH SOME SALES HAS BEEN FAIRYTALE

[campyfan39]

This one goes to 11

Originally Posted by bobsbbcards

I suppose someone thinks they can get a bump......to an 11.

[Johnny630]

$15,900 last night

$40k plus two weeks ago

We all know which one is a real value and which one is fairytales

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

$15,900 last night

$40k plus two weeks ago

We all know which one is a real value and which one is fairytales

The one last night was a 5 in a 7 holder. An actual 7 would sell much higher. I would never buy a 7 with 3 damaged corners.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by rats60

The one last night was a 5 in a 7 holder. An actual 7 would sell much higher. I would never buy a 7 with 3 damaged corners.

I think they are really comparable. Agreed that last night's corners are touched a little more. But the $40K one has a rougher left edge.

Here they are for all to judge. The one on the left sold for $15K. The one on the right sold for over $40K (allegedly).

I'd rather have the one on the left and an additional $25K in my pocket.

compare.jpg

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by rats60

The one last night was a 5 in a 7 holder. An actual 7 would sell much higher. I would never buy a 7 with 3 damaged corners.

It did suck compared to the 40,000 plus one, that being said the 7 last week was still not worth $40,000 plus.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

I think they are really comparable. Agreed that last night's corners are touched a little more. But the $40K one has a rougher left edge.

Here they are for all to judge. The one on the left sold for $15K. The one on the right sold for over $40K (allegedly).

I'd rather have the one on the left and an additional $25K in my pocket.

Attachment 442708

In my opinion the one on the left is way worse, a couple bad looking corners and top to bottom centering, the one on the right to me is much better but not at $40,000 plus no way.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

I think they are really comparable. Agreed that last night's corners are touched a little more. But the $40K one has a rougher left edge.

Here they are for all to judge. The one on the left sold for $15K. The one on the right sold for over $40K (allegedly).

I'd rather have the one on the left and an additional $25K in my pocket.

Attachment 442708

Disagree. The corners aren't touched, they are missing. If the 15k is a real sale then 40k is more than fair for a card 2 grades better. I would take the nicer card everytime, though I think they are both over priced.

[GasHouseGang]

This was tough to get but I tried to capture the top and bottom up close detail from the ebay listings. It's the only real way to examine the corners, edges, and surface. Here is the top and bottom detail of the card that sold for $15.6K and then the top and bottom detail of the card that sold for $42.6K.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Man, you guys are TOUGH graders I guess I'm expecting a card graded a 7 to have some noticeable imperfections (which is why it's not an 8, 9, or 10).

I honestly view them as much closer to equal. I can obviously see the corners are better on the $40K card...but you guys seem to be giving the rough edge on the expensive card a free pass. Also, those imperfections do stand out more in the hi def auction scans because they are huge. In real life, at roughly 2 x 3 inches, I would still consider those corner touches and not missing corners.

But this friendly disagreement brings to light how that first card could have realistically gotten to 40K.

Let's say three of us were in the market for an SGC 7 Bowman mantle. BOTH cards would meet that criteria for me...and I would bid up to a certain amount for each.

But it sounds like I would be the ONLY one of us bidding on the cheaper card...while you guys battled it out for the other one.

With that lens, maybe the $40K was indeed a real sale.

[dio]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Man, you guys are TOUGH graders I guess I'm expecting a card graded a 7 to have some noticeable imperfections (which is why it's not an 8, 9, or 10).

I honestly view them as much closer to equal. I can obviously see the corners are better on the $40K card...but you guys seem to be giving the rough edge on the expensive card a free pass. Also, those imperfections do stand out more in the hi def auction scans because they are huge. In real life, at roughly 2 x 3 inches, I would still consider those corner touches and not missing corners.

But this friendly disagreement brings to light how that first card could have realistically gotten to 40K.

Let's say three of us were in the market for an SGC 7 Bowman mantle. BOTH cards would meet that criteria for me...and I would bid up to a certain amount for each.

But it sounds like I would be the ONLY one of us bidding on the cheaper card...while you guys battled it out for the other one.

With that lens, maybe the $40K was indeed a real sale.

Agree

[GasHouseGang]

I actually agree with you John. The other thing everyone is REALLY hung up on is centering. I like a card centered, but I'm not OCD about it and not willing to pay 10 times as much for a slightly better centered copy. But that's just me.

[Johnny630]

If that sale was real was it bought back and covered by investors??

[todeen]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Man, you guys are TOUGH graders

but you guys seem to be giving the rough edge on the expensive card a free pass. Also, those imperfections do stand out more in the hi def auction scans because they are huge.

Actually, it's hard to say because lighting of a room can play significantly when taking a photo, but I think the cheaper card has dirtier white edges. The bottom scans look much whiter, which would give me the impression that the cheaper card has more surface wear / imperfections.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

If that sale was real was it bought back and covered by investors??

For the record, I'm still skeptical of that price for the $40K Mantle. Which is why I started this thread initially.

The bidding pattern it took (getting exponentially high early in the bidding) combined with the high price doesn't feel right.

However, I have found it interesting to read other's opinions on the desirability of that card vs the lower priced example. I don't think ANYONE is saying that they would have paid $40K for it....but clearly it is viewed as a premium value to some collectors. And as we all know it only takes two bidders that really want a card to run up a price.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by todeen

Actually, it's hard to say because lighting of a room can play significantly when taking a photo, but I think the cheaper card has dirtier white edges. The bottom scans look much whiter, which would give me the impression that the cheaper card has more surface wear / imperfections.

Agreed that lighting can have a big impact. In trying to compare, I usually scrutinize the labels. The SGC flip would theoretically be the same shade of white on both...so if the label looks darker on one, then the borders might look darker, when in reality the cards are actually the same color. I *think* that might be what's going on between those two.

[bobsbbcards]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

...but you guys seem to be giving the rough edge on the expensive card a free pass.

The card came out of the pack with that edge, so that's probably why the market "ignores" it. I like rough cuts (OPC.......mmmmmm), so I'd always rather have the $40K one, although not for more than 1.3333 x the other one.

[dio]

Rough edge guarantee not trimmed. Should hold even bigger premium. Trimmers can't trim it to be rough edge

[irv]

Originally Posted by dio

Rough edge guarantee not trimmed. Should hold even bigger premium. Trimmers can't trim it to be rough edge

Others can correct me if I am wrong but I believe some of these card doctors can now mimic the rough cut edges?

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

This was tough to get but I tried to capture the top and bottom up close detail from the ebay listings. It's the only real way to examine the corners, edges, and surface. Here is the top and bottom detail of the card that sold for $15.6K and then the top and bottom detail of the card that sold for $42.6K.

Are the bottom corners really 7 quality on the first one? Both have pretty noticeable dings.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

For the record, I'm still skeptical of that price for the $40K Mantle. Which is why I started this thread initially.

The bidding pattern it took (getting exponentially high early in the bidding) combined with the high price doesn't feel right.

However, I have found it interesting to read other's opinions on the desirability of that card vs the lower priced example. I don't think ANYONE is saying that they would have paid $40K for it....but clearly it is viewed as a premium value to some collectors. And as we all know it only takes two bidders that really want a card to run up a price.

I think we are all skeptical of what is going on with card prices. However, with an Authentic graded t206 Wagner selling for 2.5 million last night, a card too small to get a number grade and missing half it's back. There has to be some element of authentic sales. There are clearly new buyers with a lot of money buying up premium cards. Like you said, if two of these guys saw this card and wanted it, it could be a real sale. The 51 Bowman has taken a huge jump, so it follows that the 52 would too.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by irv

Others can correct me if I am wrong but I believe some of these card doctors can now mimic the rough cut edges?

I know that they are trimming Sports Illustrated for Kids cards and replicating the perforated edges, so it wouldn't surprise me if they could.

[JeremyW]

I've seen proof on the Blowout forum that they can indeed fake the rough edge cut.