Card prices skyrocketing

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by packs

Maybe this is just my own opinion but we've all been watching this happen slowly over a very long period of time. There is no doubt that the prices are where they're at because of all the shill bidding that enabled this situation to become a reality. It is almost impossible to gauge the actual market value of anything because so much of the price point is set by eBay sales that are either inflated by self-bidding or artificial in that the card didn't actually sell.

I don't feel it's an overnight phenomenon or really even related to the pandemic. This board has had thread after thread about what some sellers are doing and I feel as though this is the culmination of a shill-ridden hobby rather than the result of pandemic panic buying.

It can be stopped of course. But it would mean sacrificing "stuff". A seller has something you want, you know you're bidding against yourself if you bid on their material, and it's going to take the hobby's collective will power to instead let the stuff go. Dealers who are bad for the hobby will only exit the hobby when there's no more business for them.

This is spot on!

[packs]

Guys, I implore you, forego the stuff.

[Johnny630]

Anyone know if you can buy a card in auction and pay for it by sending them other cards and just have them relist the card for you? I have a feeling this could be happening but I have no idea if that’s allowed?
I guess that would be like pawning something for your win idk

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Sounds crazy but I guess I'd consider it if it were worked out ahead of time.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by packs

Guys, I implore you, forego the stuff.

Why?

[packs]

No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.

[Exhibitman]

I disagree. Prices fell hard in 2007-2009 and rebounded gradually for several years. It has picked up momentum the last few years and now we are in a full boom. It isn't shilling across this huge swath of issues and cards, it is rebounding prices combined with boredom and restricted competing entertainment spending options. You know what else is way up? Sales of model paints and craft supplies, and pet adoptions. People are bored and have money available.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

People are bored and have money available

I agree with this. But what I don’t understand then is why are people screaming for more stimulus and bailouts? Obviously It’s because not everyone has money- many are hurting. I guess my point is that we are in some really fuc&ed up times: some people have no food and others are dropping $20k on mass produced fleer cards of MJ sitting in a psa 8 slab, which was worth maybe $2500 less than a year ago.

My prediction is that many people get slaughtered - flat out crushed. Let’s hope people are not spending money they don’t have, but I fear many are.

I will stay in my sandbox with Cobb, wagner, Ruth and my 524 t206 friends and watch from afar how this all shakes out

[asoriano]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

My prediction is that many people get slaughtered - flat out crushed. Let’s hope people are not spending money they don’t have, but I fear many are.

+1

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by packs

No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.

When I try to determine the current market for a card, I look at completed sale prices. I use VCP, but all of the other primary sources also look at completed sales transactions. I am not sure why you think a listing price impacts the market. I see tons of cards sitting on Ebay for crazy prices. they are not taken into account in sales data.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Wid_Conroy

When I try to determine the current market for a card, I look at completed sale prices. I use VCP, but all of the other primary sources also look at completed sales transactions. I am not sure why you think a listing price impacts the market. I see tons of cards sitting on Ebay for crazy prices. they are not taken into account in sales data.

I’m not talking about listing price. I’m talking about the sale price. When you shill an auction you inflate the sale price. That sale price is taken to be a reflection of the cards value. When the next person auctions the same card they do so with the previous sale price in mind and price points rise. But it doesn’t mean that the card that set the tone even sold to an actual bidder, yet it has set the tone for future sales.

[Oscar_Stanage]

Originally Posted by packs

I’m not talking about listing price. I’m talking about the sale price. When you shill an auction you inflate the sale price. That sale price is taken to be a reflection of the cards value. When the next person auctions the same card they do so with the previous sale price in mind and price points rise. But it doesn’t mean that the card that set the tone even sold to an actual bidder, yet it has set the tone for future sales.

agreed. I had misunderstood your original post...
on this topic, it is very easy to move the market when there so few sales. Some of the most popular high grade cards sell maybe a few times a month.
For example, the 85-86 Star Jordan #117 (2nd year) BGS 9.5 had 6 VCP sales in November/December from various sellers. The prices ranged from $2500-$4500. In January, the 2 most recent sales are for $7500 - both from the same seller (a high-volume EBay seller)

Chatter online suggests this as the new market level.... Seems absurd, will see if additional copies are sold by different sellers at those levels.

[japhi]

Cards are just a small part of a gigantic asset bubble. There seems to be unlimited availability to capital. Bitcoin, Real Estate, classic cars, boats, equities, wine/spirits. Startups with questionable futures raising 100's of millions of dollars. Sure there are new collectors, and this surge will be good for the hobby long term, but this is more about money needing a place to land.

This is the net result of the Fed pumping trillions into the economy. Depending on what you feel about monetary policy, MMT, this can either go on forever or it will come crashing down. Things that I think need to be considered; these corrections seem to be getting worse with each event. 2008 was worse the 2000, 2020 was worse (or would have been if not for massive stimulus) then 2008. This recovery is completely debt financed. Unemployment is 2.5x what it was pre pandemic, and would be 15% + without massive stimulus.

I get FOMO and I think the best stuff will always do well, but when this thing pops it is going to be legendary. I just can't believe that the US can run 2T plus annual deficits forever. When the music stops all this new money will evaporate faster then it arrived. Hard to predict top and bottom on these events but they always end the same way.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by japhi

Cards are just a small part of a gigantic asset bubble. There seems to be unlimited availability to capital. Bitcoin, Real Estate, classic cars, boats, equities, wine/spirits. Startups with questionable futures raising 100's of millions of dollars. Sure there are new collectors, and this surge will be good for the hobby long term, but this is more about money needing a place to land.

This is the net result of the Fed pumping trillions into the economy. Depending on what you feel about monetary policy, MMT, this can either go on forever or it will come crashing down. Things that I think need to be considered; these corrections seem to be getting worse with each event. 2008 was worse the 2000, 2020 was worse (or would have been if not for massive stimulus) then 2008. This recovery is completely debt financed. Unemployment is 2.5x what it was pre pandemic, and would be 15% + without massive stimulus.

I get FOMO and I think the best stuff will always do well, but when this thing pops it is going to be legendary. I just can't believe that the US can run 2T plus annual deficits forever. When the music stops all this new money will evaporate faster then it arrived. Hard to predict top and bottom on these events but they always end the same way.

It’s easier to spot a bubble than know when it will, if it will, pop. We are in war time deficit levels, but with rates where they are, our level is not as precarious as prior periods when borrow rates were higher. The Fed chartered this course since Greenspan and they knew going in it was a one way ticket, if their dual mandate are max employment and price stability. It’s been either the deal with the devil and the wider wealth gap / social instability that comes from it, or a second Great Depression. And it’s because of their mandate, at this point the only way out, to meet their mandate, is currency devaluation, via asset price reflation and currency race to the bottom. Add fiscal stimulus which we have not been able to pass until last year, and you’re throwing fuel to the fire.

So are we in a bubble- I refer you to Shiller’s bubble checklist and you decide... and if you think we are in one and questioning, when will this pop, another question to ponder is will this pop, because that is equally as important of a wealth preservation question as much as whether we are in a bubble.