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#1
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No I’m not suggesting every auction is shill bidding. I’m suggesting prices have been rising over time in a general sense due to it. When a high price is set but the card doesn’t actually sell or is artificially bid up it can still set a benchmark for the next sale. It’s been a topic on the board a lot and I think could be a contributor.
Last edited by packs; 01-29-2021 at 11:28 PM. |
#2
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I disagree. Prices fell hard in 2007-2009 and rebounded gradually for several years. It has picked up momentum the last few years and now we are in a full boom. It isn't shilling across this huge swath of issues and cards, it is rebounding prices combined with boredom and restricted competing entertainment spending options. You know what else is way up? Sales of model paints and craft supplies, and pet adoptions. People are bored and have money available.
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#3
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I agree with this. But what I don’t understand then is why are people screaming for more stimulus and bailouts? Obviously It’s because not everyone has money- many are hurting. I guess my point is that we are in some really fuc&ed up times: some people have no food and others are dropping $20k on mass produced fleer cards of MJ sitting in a psa 8 slab, which was worth maybe $2500 less than a year ago.
My prediction is that many people get slaughtered - flat out crushed. Let’s hope people are not spending money they don’t have, but I fear many are. I will stay in my sandbox with Cobb, wagner, Ruth and my 524 t206 friends and watch from afar how this all shakes out |
#4
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+1
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#5
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__________________
Deals Done: GrayGhost, Count76, mybuddyinc, banksfan14, boysblue, Sverteramo, rocuan, rootsearcher60, GoldenAge50s, pt7464, trdcrdkid, T206.org, bnorth, frankrizzo29, David Atkatz, Johnny630, cardsamillion, SPMIDD, esehombre, bbsports, babraham, RhodeyRhode, Nate Adams, OhioCardCollector, ejstel, Golfcollector, Luke, 53toppscollector, benge610, Lunker21, VintageCardCo, jmanners51, T206CollectorVince, wrm, hockeyhockey Collecting: T206 Monster #236 |
#6
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Last edited by packs; 01-30-2021 at 10:35 AM. |
#7
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on this topic, it is very easy to move the market when there so few sales. Some of the most popular high grade cards sell maybe a few times a month. For example, the 85-86 Star Jordan #117 (2nd year) BGS 9.5 had 6 VCP sales in November/December from various sellers. The prices ranged from $2500-$4500. In January, the 2 most recent sales are for $7500 - both from the same seller (a high-volume EBay seller) Chatter online suggests this as the new market level.... Seems absurd, will see if additional copies are sold by different sellers at those levels.
__________________
Deals Done: GrayGhost, Count76, mybuddyinc, banksfan14, boysblue, Sverteramo, rocuan, rootsearcher60, GoldenAge50s, pt7464, trdcrdkid, T206.org, bnorth, frankrizzo29, David Atkatz, Johnny630, cardsamillion, SPMIDD, esehombre, bbsports, babraham, RhodeyRhode, Nate Adams, OhioCardCollector, ejstel, Golfcollector, Luke, 53toppscollector, benge610, Lunker21, VintageCardCo, jmanners51, T206CollectorVince, wrm, hockeyhockey Collecting: T206 Monster #236 |
#8
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Here is Mr. Shiller’s checklist.
--Sharp increases in the price of an asset --Great public excitement about said increases --An accompanying media frenzy --Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t --Growing interest in the asset class among the general public --“New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases --A decline in lending standards This fits modern collecting very well but I question the last five as to vintage cards. I see a lot of people who were collectors getting back into it and a lot of long-time collectors getting into it heavily on a FOMO basis, but not members of the general public going nuts. Little media that isn't focused on modern or that damned 1952 T Mantle. Don't know about new era theories; the song remains the same as far as I can tell. The greats are still greats. And if I ask someone to borrow money to buy old baseball cards they still look at me like I'm nuts.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#9
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Very different from the stock market where you see all sorts of random people getting involved who have no business buying stock.
__________________
Deals Done: GrayGhost, Count76, mybuddyinc, banksfan14, boysblue, Sverteramo, rocuan, rootsearcher60, GoldenAge50s, pt7464, trdcrdkid, T206.org, bnorth, frankrizzo29, David Atkatz, Johnny630, cardsamillion, SPMIDD, esehombre, bbsports, babraham, RhodeyRhode, Nate Adams, OhioCardCollector, ejstel, Golfcollector, Luke, 53toppscollector, benge610, Lunker21, VintageCardCo, jmanners51, T206CollectorVince, wrm, hockeyhockey Collecting: T206 Monster #236 |
#10
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I think in discussing a future crash or bubble, the discussion must be differentiated between (1) Modern and (2) Vintage.
Last time I checked, they're not printing any new T206s or 1933 Goudeys next year. And the chances that Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner or Babe Ruth suffer season-ending ACLs next year are exactly 0%. Last edited by troutbum97; 01-30-2021 at 07:42 PM. |
#11
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#12
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I think most of these crazy prices are being fueled by BIN's....a few years ago all the eBay stores were full of WAY overpriced cards looking for a sucker to bite. Now they are all starting to sell, and the stores can not raise their prices fast enough. It has become a feeding frenzy....
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