Age old collecting conundrum

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yeah. . . and next week one will show up at an auction in better shape at half the price. lol.

If I can hold out for eBay bucks and at least get $100 credit in the process will take the plunge.

The way I look at this is, if $100 is really enough to sway you, and it’s as scarce as you say it is, then buy it immediately. If a nicer one shows up for half the price, buy that one too and sell the first one for what you bought the second one for and consider it a free upgrade!

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by conor912

The way I look at this is, if $100 is really enough to sway you, and it’s as scarce as you say it is, then buy it immediately. If a nicer one shows up for half the price, buy that one too and sell the first one for what you bought the second one for and consider it a free upgrade!

Yeah, that's a good strategy.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yeah, that's a good strategy.

I have never once regretted employing said justification strategy.

[Exhibitman]

If it is that scarce how do you even know it is overpriced? If there is enough of a recent history of sales to analyze and determine that the item is overpriced then it isn't scarce.

I run across this all of the time with the stuff I like to collect. How do you evaluate a team-issued card or piece of stadiana that no one has seen before, other than at auction?

You can't distract yourself with 'what if' questions. Odds are your item is not unique and odds are another one will surface. Some day. Maybe. But you can't control that. And even if there is another one for sale next week, so what? So there will then be two of them. They are still scarce.

What the other guys said goes: if you want it and can afford it, go for it.

[Snapolit1]

Well that’s determining a fair price where there is not a readily identifiable market for the item. To say the price is fair because I can afford it is a bit of a slippery slope, isn’t it?

I hated economics in college. Now it’s the most interesting subject in the world to me.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Well that’s determining a fair price where there is not a readily identifiable market for the item. To say the price is fair because I can afford it is a bit of a slippery slope, isn’t it?

Not really. if the item is so rare that there is no way to research a past price, you just have to rely on personal criteria, can you afford it being one of them. I can only echo what many here have already said: the times I've bought something costly but rare and ended up happy far exceed the times i've bought something costly but rare and ended up regretting it. I recently purchased a very expensive (relatively speaking) previously unknown regional basketball issue. I gulped once and hit the BIN. I do not regret it. Quite the opposite as I now have a pre-rookie Jerry West that i like way more than a 1961 Fleer 'standard' RC. When I go to sell it, if ever, I am confident that a West collector will pay nicely to have it. I can cite item after item where I've done the same thing over the years. There have been clunkers to be sure, but overall it has been both lucrative and enjoyable as a collector to own something unique and valuable.

The other metric that occurs to me as influential is the subject matter. I am way more confident buying a rare item related to a major star than a common from some obscure issue. The superstar item has an appeal far beyond the novelty of the issue. If the choice is between paying $150 for an obscure Cuban tobacco card of an amateur player versus an NL HOFer I am way more likely to pony up for the NLer. That said, I am more of a player than a type collector; others may differ. Having any T231 is appealing to many, but not to me: I would buy a Joe Blow T231 card only to flip it.

[Snapolit1]

Great comments Adam. All true. And I’ve seen some of your exhibits collection. Amazing rare stuff.